On December 10, 2023, Argentina, which has been troubled by the economic crisis for a long time, ushered in its new leader Javier Milais.
As early as when he was running for president, Milai, who belonged to the far-right electoral alliance "Freedom Forward Party", caused great controversy in Argentina and even around the world with his outrageous remarks and slightly extreme political line. After taking office, Milai released a series of measures to improve the economy, including "halving" the number of ministries to reduce public spending, devaluing the peso by more than 50%, cutting government subsidies for fuel and transportation, and repealing hundreds of regulations.
Milai's policies seem to have achieved certain results: Argentina ushered in the country's first monthly budget surplus in 12 years in January this year, and foreign exchange reserves have also begun to grow. Data released by the Argentine government show that in January this year, Argentina achieved a fiscal surplus of 518.408 billion pesos (equivalent to RMB 4.4 billion).
In addition, the Millay government's currency devaluation plan has raised import costs. Argentine capital outflows are declining as the pace of imports slows. At the same time, although Argentina's inflation rate reached 20.6% in January, it was slightly lower than the 25.5% in December last year. Behind the
data, the lives of ordinary people in Argentina are still very difficult. Some analysts believe that Milley's fiscal austerity policies and privatization plans will cause large-scale unemployment and thereby push up the number of poor people. Some economists have warned that ordinary families will suffer a huge impact as the prices of public services such as medical care and education in Argentina rise this month.
"Originally, one kilogram of beef cost 2,000 pesos (equivalent to RMB 17), but the next day it suddenly increased to 4,000 pesos (equivalent to RMB 34). The day before yesterday I went out to buy ingredients, one kilogram of beef, half a kilogram of chicken breast and half a kilogram of beef The liver costs about 11,000 pesos (equivalent to RMB 93)." Xiao Lin, a Chinese young man originally from Changle, Fujian, runs a factory with her family in Lanus City, the industrial center of Argentina. She told The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) that Mi Shortly after Rai came to power, Argentina experienced a wave of inflation. Xiaolin's family currently spends about 10,000 to 30,000 pesos (approximately RMB 85 to 255 yuan) on food every week.
In view of the fact that the change of government in previous years may lead to a series of problems such as social instability, Xiaolin's family has also made full psychological preparations and will reduce going out and strengthen prevention in the near future. However, Xiaolin still has lingering fears when she recalls a suspected home invasion incident early last month. "In Argentina, an increase in the inflation rate may lead to social security problems such as looting. One morning at around 8 o'clock, two people suddenly broke into the house. It seemed that they wanted to grab things, but luckily they ended up "Left on its own."
In his first government work report in parliament on March 1, Milley said he would "continue to advance" a series of comprehensive economic reforms to get the country out of decades of dysfunction and recession.
"Spiking" prices
"Our country needs to take action, and action now!" Millay warned at his inauguration ceremony in December that Argentina was on the "brink of the greatest crisis in history." He promised to lead Argentina emerges from "decadence and decline". At that time, Argentina's annual inflation rate had reached 161%, and 45% of the population lived in poverty.
After taking power, Milai proposed dollarization, market deregulation and austerity measures to repair the economy and curb inflation. But solving Argentina's economic woes will not be easy. Benjamin Gerdan, director of the Argentina Program at the Wilson Center in Washington, has asserted that serving as president of Argentina must be one of the worst jobs in the world. "Argentina's economic problems have become so deep, complex and intertwined that even if they are easy to identify, they are not easy to solve." Gedan analyzed.
Currently, Argentina’s annual inflation rate exceeds 250%, surpassing Venezuela and becoming the country with the highest inflation rate in Latin America. Official government data shows that the Argentine peso has lost more than 50% of its value, the cost of natural gas has roughly doubled, food prices have risen by about 50% and health care costs have increased at a similar rate.A research report released by the Catholic University of Argentina on February 18 showed that Argentina’s poverty rate soared to 57.4% in January, the highest level in 20 years. There are approximately 27 million poor people in the country, 15% of whom fall into “absolute poverty”, which means They are unable to adequately meet their food needs.
Oliveria currently lives in Colon, Entre Rios province, where he works part-time as a nanny while attending school. In contrast to most of his peers who were unable to buy a house or a car, Oliveira saved money on rent by living with his parents and was able to have extra money to buy a car.
Olivella told The Paper that fuel prices in Argentina continue to rise, and the prices of general commodities and transportation costs are also rising. "Foods such as rice, noodles, bread, eggs, dairy products and biscuits are very expensive, and meat is by far the most expensive food. Most young people have difficulty finding jobs and their wages are not satisfactory. If you want to make money on your own Life is really difficult," Oliveria complained. Tomás Alvarez Kuhnler, an economist at the
consulting agency "analytica", analyzed in an article that the impact of inflation is obviously different for households with different income levels in Argentina. "For high-income households, inflation may reduce household savings levels, and middle-income groups may need to reduce consumption of non-essential goods and services. Low-income households may need to increase working hours or involve more family members in the labor force to Maintain basic life."
Although the impact of inflation on Xiaolin's family is "relatively limited," she also expressed concerns. "For us business people, as long as we reduce some expenses, there won't be much of a problem. However, the average daily salary of an ordinary office worker in Argentina is about 8,000 to 10,000 pesos (equivalent to RMB 68 to 88 yuan). With prices rising so fast, their lives must be very difficult."
"Fight to the End"
Among the many policies proposed by Milais, the most controversial is the reform plan involving the labor field. It is reported that the bill proposed by Milley includes changing the terms of employment contracts, lowering salary standards, and reducing vacation benefits. He also announced a reduction in the number of state agencies and began to lay off state employees at the end of December last year. At least 5,000 people were laid off in the first round.
Trade unions across Argentina have blocked dozens of large protests since Milais signed the "Decree on Necessity and Urgency" in December. On February 26, the Argentine Teachers Union announced a nationwide strike, affecting the opening of schools in a total of 8 provinces (cities), including Cordoba, the capital Buenos Aires, Corrientes Province, River Province, and Formosa Province. , Mendoza Province, San Luis Province and Santa Fe Province. The strike was launched by the Argentine Federation of Educators (ctera) to protest against the government's cancellation of the National Teacher Incentive Fund (fonid) and to demand a national salary negotiation. According to a CCTV News report on February 29, Argentina’s three major aviation unions held a 24-hour nationwide strike starting at 0:00 local time on the 28th, affecting all airports in the country. Aviation workers blocked the entrance to Jorge Newbery Airport in Buenos Aires for nearly 10 hours.
At the same time, the national judicial agency also pressed the "pause button" on Milley's reform process. On January 4, Argentina’s National Labor Appeal Tribunal issued an injunction on the 3rd local time, suspending measures related to labor reform in President Millay’s economic reform plan. On January 30, the National Labor Appeal Tribunal finally declared that all labor-related provisions in the reform were invalid because they were "unconstitutional."
The Argentines interviewed held different opinions regarding Millay's reform bill and the resulting opposition.
Olivella told The Paper that although she did not vote for any candidate, she was still "lucky" that Milley was elected president.
However, when it comes to Milley's reform bill, she said that the labor reform bill that Milley is promoting is "unacceptable" to her. "I'm not 100 percent opposed to the laws he wants to enact, in fact, I approve of him as our president, but the laws he wants to advance affect many citizens.These take away workers’ compensation, regardless of how long we’ve been on the job. He would 'attack' provincial leaders if they opposed his initiatives. "Oliveria said.
However, according to previous reports by The Paper, the federal system, the basic institutional structure of Argentina's founding, determines that the country's local governments (especially provincial governments) have great power, and there is no one who is in power in any province. Faced with local governments that have effective autonomous powers, the constraints faced by the Milais camp in its governance can be imagined.
"No choice"
Despite the constant anti-Milay voices in the country, some Argentines interviewed said that they are not satisfied with the previous few Being tired of the line put forward by the previous government was the main reason why they chose to support Millay.
21-year-old Luciano is studying tourism. Unlike other interviewees, his support for Millay appears to be particularly "firm ". As for Milley's poor reputation abroad because of his more extreme remarks and political lines, he seemed very helpless. "What foreigners don't understand is that Argentina is currently in disaster. And you can’t solve everything in one day. Change is necessary. Most people support the current government and deny the previous government because the previous government left behind many corrupt politicians, which prevented Milley's policies from being implemented. Previous governments were thieves, they were synonymous with 'disaster' and 'corruption', and the Milais government is addressing the disaster left by its predecessor. " Luciano said.
Millais admires the Austrian school of economics. His views on deregulating the economy and reducing welfare programs to reduce government deficits have given him a large number of fans in his country. For Argentines who support Millais , the rise of Milais means that "Peronism" will no longer dominate Argentine politics. This is also the only way for the country to get out of economic difficulties.
Peronism was founded by Juan Domingo Pyongyang, who served as the president of Argentina three times. The political trend of thought and movement proposed and launched by Peron in the mid-1940s is also called "justism" because of its special emphasis on social justice. Over the years, the social welfare system promoted by the Peronist party has been regarded by some Argentines as High deficits and economic inefficiency are the "culprits".
Kobayashi is deeply dissatisfied with the way the Peronist party uses high welfare policies and subsidy programs to win over voters. In her view, the subsidy programs introduced by previous governments can make a People who don't work every month get enough income to live a comfortable life. "Where does the money come from? It's all from the hands of taxpayers. They have the hands and feet, so why can't they go to work and get income? "
Xiaolin's family has owned a supermarket, and the factory they currently operate locally mainly produces daily cleaning products. She said that Argentina's labor unions are powerful, some local employees have a lax work attitude, and employers are sometimes even in a weak position.
"Some local employees He likes to quit his job habitually, and even reports on his employer afterwards. Local law stipulates that if we do not respond to complaint letters for more than three times, we can only compensate according to the price quoted by the whistleblower. Some Chinese bosses do not understand local laws and can only swallow their anger afterwards. "Kobayashi said.
media has also reported a similar phenomenon. The Argentine news website "a24" reported in 2022 that a woman raising three children claimed that she could still receive nearly 10% of her salary from the government without working. An average monthly subsidy of 70,000 pesos (equivalent to RMB 595). This incident later caused an uproar in Argentina because the country’s monthly minimum wage that year was 45,540 pesos (equivalent to RMB 387).
Reuters also reported that , the Argentinian people who rely on government subsidies for their source of income prefer to vote for the Peronist party. In October last year, Reuters mentioned in a report that 65-year-old retiree Simona Alegre relied on the government The pensioner raised six grandchildren and noted that such people tend to be strong supporters of the Peronist party.
In Kobayashi's view, Milley is very different from previous presidents, and said he has sensed Milley's efforts to reform Argentina. Determination. "Millay's policy caught Argentina's pain points, and he did not give in, but had a tough attitude. I hope the Argentine economy will get better quickly and become more open."
Luciano also feels the same way. "The situation in Argentina is changing every day, but at least we know there is hope on this road, not darkness visible to the naked eye. ” he said.
