Everything is business.
After you sing, I will appear.
A hot topic hyped by foreign media, it has almost become a model drama. You know what to sing next even before you get on stage.
Nvidia collapsed unexpectedly last week. Nvidia, which had a market value of one Coca-Cola in one day, was suddenly hit hard. The stock price plummeted 13%, and the market value of Maotai fell one day.
Originally shorted Nvidia but heavily invested in Tesla, which failed to live up to expectations, the angry sister took advantage of this opportunity and had a good time. In just one weekend, the public opinion that "Nvidia hit Cisco's moment" has been heard endlessly.
To be fair, Cisco’s forward P/E ratio for the year is as high as 138 times. In comparison, today's forward-looking price-to-earnings ratio for Nvidia is only 35 times, and TTM PE is only 70 times. It is indeed not yet at the level of Cisco. However, Cisco was still riding the wave of globalization back then, and Nvidia's h20 was said to have been softly blocked by China. Any manufacturer that uses h20 castration cards had to report the reasons why it did not use domestic chips. As a result, it was Internet giants cut orders in large numbers.
Regardless of whether Nvidia was convinced by Sister Mu, the popularity of AIGC has indeed gone down. In the past, every time Sora released a batch of videos, the entire Internet went crazy and reposted and praised them. Recently, the splash has become much smaller, and there is not even the sensation of the news of Natalie Portman's divorce.
Natalie Portman couldn't even guard against the mistress. Sure enough, "Since ancient times, beauties are like famous generals, and they are not allowed to grow old in the world."
Every time the momentum of AI weakens, another topic will be hyped: artificial nuclear fusion. This time is no exception. Nvidia's front foot collapsed, and its back foot MIT "broke through the artificial sun."
mit artificial sun
Just when Sister Mu started to spread the "Cisco Moment" around, MIT announced that they had reduced the cost per watt of the controllable fusion reactor to the original 3%, making the commercialization of controllable nuclear fusion technology possible. Does
sound amazing? The key to AI computing is that it consumes huge amounts of electricity, and the ability to produce electricity is not in the hands of Westerners. Whether it is thermal power stations, wind power or solar power, the role of selling shovels is in the hands of the Chinese, and nuclear energy is disliked by many Western countries. But once controllable nuclear fusion is commercialized, won’t it break the closed loop?
Ever since, every few months, nuclear fusion has achieved a breakthrough.
If you take a closer look, this breakthrough is a bit too childish.
, which is called a major breakthrough that reduces the cost of controllable nuclear fusion to 3% of the original, is not an ignition test of another nuclear fusion device, but a new supermagnet developed by MIT researchers. Although
lk99 made an mistake, MIT's discovery of superconductivity is enough to win the Nobel Prize.
results If you look carefully at the paper, you will find that MIT's big breakthrough this time is just a new design of the known low-temperature superconducting metal rebco (rare earth barium copper oxide, superconducting temperature 20k), removing the thin and The flat magnet superconducting strip is surrounded by an insulator that was originally used to prevent short circuits.
In this way, the size and cost of the magnet are reduced. This saves costs and makes the commercialization of nuclear fusion devices possible.
But this is a nuclear fusion device that uses this kind of reduced magnet. Has it been tested? not at all. To take a step back, has a nuclear fusion device using this new type of magnet been built? nor. There are only two simulation experiments in 21 years and six papers published in the IEEE Transactions on Applied Superconductivity magazine. Is that all
? Even though we haven't even built a prototype, we can still say it is a breakthrough in the commercialization of controllable nuclear fusion?
China's backwardness syndrome
The West has devoted great enthusiasm to nuclear fusion. On the one hand, as mentioned above, the manufacturing capacity of traditional power generation has fallen into the hands of the Chinese. If we don’t do some overtaking in corners, we may have AI computing power but not AI power. On the other hand, both Bill Gates and Bezos have invested in commercial nuclear fusion companies, betting real money on them. It needs to be taken out occasionally to create buzz and support market value.
But why are domestic media so keen on repeating the story of foreigners walking at night to embolden themselves to blow whistles?
This is not only true for nuclear fusion, but also for solid-state batteries.
Every time China's electric vehicles gain momentum, there are always a few headlines that will pop up, boasting about the complete dimensionality reduction of solid-state batteries that attack lithium batteries: half the size, half the weight, and achieving a range of 1,200 kilometers after 10 minutes of charging. . It has excellent performance like Zenith Star Technology and will be mass-produced in 27 years. The implication is that regardless of China’s global dominance in battery production, it will all become waste paper soon.
Solid-state batteries have become the same menstrual patch as controlled nuclear fusion. They are used every now and then to combat the arrogance of the domestic industry.
But what about actually?
Toyota, which is engaged in solid-state batteries, announced as early as 2021 that it would mass-produce in 2025. As a result, it has not even made a breakthrough in principles and materials in 2023. It can only brag again in July 23, and it will definitely be in 27 Energy production. It turns out that it is extremely difficult to quickly and accurately stack cathode-anode battery layers that are extremely sensitive to water and oxygen and are extremely thin and fragile without causing any damage. Just four months later, the mass production time of solid-state batteries has been pushed to 2030.
Of course, Toyota, which has been beaten into disbelief in the electric vehicle market, must not let go. Former Toyota president Tsuneharu Sato said that there will definitely be cars equipped with solid-state batteries on the road in 2027, but the number will be very, very small. The reason why large-scale mass production and application will not occur until 2030 is based on cost considerations.
Our goal is to launch solid-state batteries first and then consider expanding production. As Phase 1, the current goal is to advance development focused on launching the product into the world. Under this circumstance, we will concretely overcome the key points related to production at the time of increased production, and at the same time respond to mass production and commercialization after 2030
Toyota President Koji Sato
President Sato did not lie, Japanese professional organization It is estimated that the manufacturing cost of all-solid-state batteries (sulfide type) is 60,000-350,000 yen per kilowatt-hour, which is 4-25 times higher than existing lithium-ion batteries (14,000 yen).
You may say that he does not have this problem. After all, they have been doing it for more than ten years. You may say that it does exist, but the application is still far away. Just like nuclear fusion.
But domestic media likes to hype news like this. On the contrary, no one said a word about the practical industrialization news that China is good at. For example, in the first two months of this year, exports of integrated circuits surged by 28%. China has gradually monopolized the manufacturing of traditional process chips, so much so that Raimondo is preparing to increase taxes and anti-dumping on traditional process chips exported from China to the United States. This kind of news is by no means vague. Nuclear fusion is making the same headlines as solid-state batteries.
The reason is very simple. "China is backward". This is the core issue of a group of people in China. It must be mentioned from time to time, hyped up a few times, and brainwashed by everyone. If there is an industry that is lagging behind in China, the importance of this industry must be raised by three levels; if there is an industry that China does well, it must be that the road is going wrong and people will not play with us anymore.
Bitcoin came out, China missed the digital currency trend, pill.
Yuan Universe comes out, China has no place in virtual reality, pill.
Hydrogen energy and solid-state batteries are coming out. China chose the wrong technology tree when building trams, which is a pill.
High temperature super conduction comes out, China's UHV patents are all useless, pills. When
ai came out, China missed the fourth industrial revolution, pill.
Anyway, "pills" have become a necessity for these people.
Why must we disseminate the idea of "China's backwardness" to the public? If China is indeed advanced, what about the special status of compradors? What about the super-national treatment of foreign investment? What should the foreign adults do if they are unhappy?
This melee between Nongfu Spring and Wahaha has made some media sad: How can they be so morally critical of private enterprises? How can you make such a fuss over the issue of nationality? They had no memory of the fact that just a few months ago, they were chasing after the private enterprise they loved so much. The reason was that their down jackets were too expensive.
Do those people really believe that "China is backward" and want to enlighten the people's wisdom? Everything is business.
