Picture source @Visual China
Text | Xinsheng pro, author | Jia Xiaotao
No one can refuse growth. Behind the craze of micro-short dramas in 2023 is everyone’s desire for growth in the era of stalling. Including the narrow content industry, traffic platforms, distributors, investors, brands, secondary markets, and the users who are driving this wave of craze.
This desire for growth from the bottom, through short dramas, especially mini-program paid dramas 2c, and the clearest accounting logic, is like a small tree in a dry land, deeply piercing its roots into every gap with traffic. , showing a savage, rough, and rampant vitality.
Since 2019, we have continued to observe short dramas, and there are still many questions that need to be answered: What kind of core value do short dramas provide to users? Is it just for the content consumption of a certain group of people, or is it a general "upgrade" of the entire short video? How big can the user base of a short drama be? How much room is there for increasing the share of content in the short drama value chain? Can short plays become a new channel for star creation? Is it possible to form a real IP? Is it possible for it to evolve into a new form of content narrative? ...
Legend has it that dragons can fly and are good at transformation: they can be dark or bright, thin or giant, short or long. In the Year of the Dragon, micro-short dramas are likely to show two trends that are different in appearance but have the same underlying theme: they are more standardized internally, with high-quality products, split accounts, payment, and advertising blooming in various forms, with more industrial forces entering the game and trying to compete with them. The integration of cultural tourism, branding and other industries is tighter; it is even more fierce outside. In Southeast Asia, North America, and the Middle East, wherever there are people, there will be short plays made in china/invested by china. No matter what the form of
is, finding new growth is the most important theme and driving force at the moment.
1. The rapid growth of mini program short dramas in 2023 exceeded everyone’s expectations. Although the statistical caliber of is different, the industry generally believes that the GMV of mini program short dramas in 2023 will exceed 30 billion yuan. This figure is roughly equivalent to 60% of the domestic movie box office during the same period and 1.5 times of iQiyi’s annual paid membership revenue.
Many people in the industry estimate that the scale of mini program short dramas will reach 100 billion yuan; a more optimistic judgment is that there is still room for growth of 5-8 times. Don’t get too hung up on specific numbers. If short dramas want to grow further, there are only two ways: either break the circle and expand the user base, or increase the monetization value of a single drama. It is expected that in 2024, in addition to paid dramas, overseas and free + advertising models will be rapidly launched.
2. In the short drama chain, Doukuaiwei is currently the biggest winner. As a channel with traffic and the ability to reach end users, can account for 80% or more of the value chain distribution. Like all fully supplied products, whoever has greater control over user reach and conversion will get more benefits.
Kuaishou was the first to enter short dramas, and in a sense assumed the role of pioneering and pushing short dramas forward. The company's financial report has repeatedly mentioned that Kuaishou's main website provides a separate entrance. It is obvious that Kuaishou will have higher monetization requirements for short dramas in 2024.
Douyin has a larger user base, stronger traffic control capabilities, and commercialization capabilities, which have become its unique advantages in short dramas. Next, in addition to introducing more production forces to increase the brand reputation of short dramas, increase content supply, and sell traffic for small program dramas, Doukuai also has two key directions: attracting more brands to customize or plant Enter; develop paid short dramas native to the terminal.
In addition, it is expected that Doukuai will strengthen the construction of operational capabilities in the future. As for WeChat, there won’t be much action, just quietly sell traffic.
needs to additionally point out that Tomato, another business line under Byte, will continue to make efforts in free short dramas. Starting from free online articles, Tomato already has a complete set of mature playing methods. The next thing to do is to copy it into Tomato short plays.
In addition to the above platforms, Taobao, Alipay, Meituan, and Pinduoduo, every platform with a user base and traffic will build a short drama business. There are two purposes, one is to increase the length of stay of users, and the other is to monetize existing traffic for a second time. For them, in addition to the need to purchase or introduce short drama content, the bigger challenge is how to establish users' habit of watching short dramas.But for practitioners, there will also be some opportunities for refined operations on these platforms.
3. The so-called mini program short drama platforms currently on the market, such as Dianzhong, Jiuzhou, Capacity, Honey, Bingtian, etc., are not real platforms, but more like publishers. takes content, follows traffic, builds a distribution network, and becomes an intermediary service provider between short dramas and real platforms. Of course, they will try their best to integrate users into their own systems during the process, whether through WeChat groups, corporate WeChat, apps, or other methods. After all, if
does not have its own user assets, traffic will only become more expensive and profits will become thinner. So we can see that Hippo Theater, which is supported by Dianzhong, is buying heavily. Kyushu, Capacity, etc. are also actively planning to establish their own "positions" in overseas markets.
But it is difficult to run an independent short drama platform. In addition to the high purchase price, the greater difficulty is retention. At present, short plays are highly homogeneous, and there is no truly appealing and symbolic content provider, regardless of label, director or actor. Most users use short dramas to "kill time" and have little loyalty to the content. Moreover, it is difficult for a single platform to obtain a sufficient number of fresh and timely short dramas, allowing users to "enrich the volume". Users have no incentive to stay on a single short drama platform.
4. There will be more and more people going overseas, but it is not as easy as imagined. In the second half of last year, more and more information emerged that Chinese short dramas in were "killing everyone" in overseas markets, leaving foreigners stunned. Moreover, the models represented by Chinese Online and reelshort in 2023 seem to have reaped dividends in the secondary market; at the beginning of 2024, flextv will join forces with US listed companies in a more rapid manner.
Putting aside the hype in the capital market, going overseas may not be as good as imagined. On the one hand, the cost has increased significantly compared with that in China: currently, the cost of filming a short drama of the same quality in the United States as in China is roughly equivalent to converting RMB into U.S. dollars; as for the second-round distribution that prefers to eat more than one fish, in addition to the Chinese-speaking market, After facing cross-language and cross-platform, the difficulty of launching has increased significantly. In this regard, it is expected that it will take a considerable amount of time for testing and the entry of new talents.
However, from the perspective of cultural export, going overseas is in line with the demands of the competent authorities. If it can be regarded as an important force in cultural export, it will also be of great value to the survival space of the short drama itself.
5. The long video platform is mainly short dramas on horizontal screens, which are relatively "Buddhist" on vertical screens. is based on different specific business logic, and the postures of several Youai Tengmang platforms are also slightly different. Mango is the most active. In addition to horizontal screen, it has also carried out many explorations in vertical screen short dramas. Youku and Tencent still focus on horizontal screen split short dramas, and their revenue will also grow rapidly in 2023. There is a batch of content based on film and television companies. Fang has made good profits in this market. Regarding the vertical screen, Gong Yu, the founder and CEO of iQiyi, previously stated that Xinsheng Pro is generally representative: Currently, it is mainly a traffic owner, accepting vertical screen short dramas to be streamed on the site.
can understand this approach. However, long video platforms do not need to enter the vertical screen short drama business, but they should attach great importance to the vertical screen short drama crowd. Do these people have the opportunity to become paying users of long video platforms? And, will the changes in content demands that have occurred to them also occur to existing users of long videos? Worth a closer look.
6. Film and television companies have gone from watching and watching vertical screen short dramas to the real end, but the pace of advancement is still not too fast. In fact, will be tested by some leading film and television companies in 2023 or even earlier, such as Ningmeng Film and Television, Changxin Media, Free Cool Whale, Linghe Culture, etc. It can be seen from the DouKuai film list that more works from leading film and television companies will be online in 2024. Some short dramas from mid-waist film and television companies have also started shooting. But overall, except for a few who have already figured out the way, other film and television companies will not be too fast in short dramas. The reason behind
is that film and television companies are still too accustomed to the 2B business model, but in vertical screen short dramas, they basically need to find money or find customers (who are not large in size). This is a challenge for film and television companies both in terms of psychology and customer resources and capabilities.As for horizontal screen short dramas, the model is more familiar to film and television companies, but it will not bring substantial changes to their old business difficulties.
7. The brand will increase its investment in short dramas in 2024. It is expected that more brands will enter , and budgets and placements will become more routine. In addition to single brands, industries represented by local cultural tourism will try more to implant and promote through short dramas.
There are multiple driving forces behind this. First, many brands have achieved benchmark cases with the help of short drama marketing, which has enhanced the influence and mental improvement of short dramas on the brand side; first, platforms such as Doukuai will increase the advancement of this business. strength to provide brands with more effective and deterministic solutions.
If short plays can obtain more exposure and conversion effects on the platform than ordinary short videos, it will become a new choice for brands to place short plays through platforms, mcn, and relying on theaters or celebrities.
8. The value of content providers in the short drama chain is expected to be further enhanced. Until now, short dramas are still based on the streaming model, and the value of the content itself has not been fully reflected. Next, as competition further intensifies and users and other parties have increased aesthetic demands for short dramas, relevant parties with the ability to produce hit content are expected to gain a greater say in the short drama chain.
In addition, compared with ordinary content providers, if there is an opportunity to accumulate the user assets formed by a single short play on talents or accounts, and repeatedly realize them through advertising, e-commerce, etc., they will gain greater room for development. Because this will actually change the model of roi calculation for a single short drama.
9. Premiumization will become a hot topic of discussion, but it needs to be implemented with caution. predicts that the quality of short dramas will become an increasingly discussed topic in 2024. Behind this are regulatory requirements and platform guidance, as well as proactive upgrades by leading companies trying to widen the gap with their competitors. At the same time, users are consuming large amounts of The subsequent aesthetic upgrade is also the driving force for high-quality products.
But the short drama industry needs to be careful to avoid excessive quality. Although we mentioned above that the value of content capabilities in the short drama chain will increase, it does not point to simple quality. In fact, under the current distribution model of short dramas, it is expected that for a considerable period of time, its core users will still be mainly the "three guarantees" people. Therefore, high-quality products must be premised on controllable costs and based on user needs, and the focus should be on high-quality products in terms of content and concept. We should not focus too early on the service, scenery, or big-name artists.
10. New rules for short plays will be implemented. regulatory trends have always been the focus of the industry. It is expected that new rules for short dramas will be released in 2024. Judging from the regulatory actions in the past year, regulatory authorities are closely observing changes in the short drama industry and trying to find an optimal set of regulatory methods.
After all, the rapid growth of short dramas reflects the huge user demand, but the ever-expanding user base of short dramas, as well as their ability to quickly capture and present social emotions, also make it easier to amplify the impact of inappropriate content. We can neither let it go nor damage the development foundation of the industry. This requires wisdom.
Objectively speaking, the huge number of short dramas released every year far exceeds the manpower and resource support for strong supervision, and it is impossible to adopt a supervision method similar to long-form dramas. It is expected that in the future, industry associations, recognized major platforms and leading institutions will become important forces assisting in the supervision of short dramas.
From a pragmatic point of view, in the face of tens of millions or even more consumers' demand for short drama content, supervision will give more space. Practitioners must also cherish and strengthen self-discipline, and establish a positive image overall, so that short dramas can have a chance. achieve greater development.
