Financial News Agency, January 24 (Reporter Cui Ming) The film market is about to usher in an important annual "big test" - the Spring Festival. There are already " speeding life 2", " Article 20 ", " hot and hot ", "Bear Infested·Reverse Time and Space", "Let's Shake the Sun Together", "Mr. Red Carpet", "Bajie: The Lower World of the Canopy" and " Eight new films including "Breaking War" have been scheduled for release. Industry insiders told reporters from the Financial Associated Press that this year's Spring Festival film list has a high "comedy" content, with sequels and IP works clustered together. Leading films compete for the audience's "first choice", and the final box office performance It depends on the quality of the film and its reputation.
Although pre-sales have not yet started for the Spring Festival, according to Maoyan Professional Edition, "Flying Life 2", which is co-produced by China Film (600977.sh) and invested by Hengdian Film and Television (603103.sh), has 519,000 people who want to watch it. Temporarily ranking first in the Spring Festival stalls. "Article 20", which was invested and produced by Enlight Media (300251.sz) and directed by Zhang Yimou, and "Hot and Spicy" produced by Xinli Media, a subsidiary of China Literature Group (00772.hk), sold for 290,000 and 383,000 respectively. The number of viewers ranked second and third, and these three new films have been locked in the first echelon of the Spring Festival film list.
"The Spring Festival is the most family-friendly time of the year. Basically, there is no less than one comedy film scheduled every year, so it is not an exception to have a high comedy content. However, what is more special this year is the first three films (referring to "Flying Life 2", "Article 20" and "Hot and Spicy") all have comedy elements." Yin Tengyu, senior analyst at Maoyan Research Institute, told reporters.
Specifically, "Flying Life 2" has the blessing of director Han Han's previous work and the box office appeal of starring Shen Teng, so it is very popular before the release. "Article 20", Zhang Yimou's third Spring Festival release, brings together many popular actors such as Lei Jiayin, Ma Li, Zhao Liying, etc., and the audience's expectations are also high. "Hot" aroused the audience's curiosity about "Jia Ling lost 100 pounds for the character", and director Jia Ling's previous Spring Festival movie "Hello, Li Huanying" still ranks third in the box office in Chinese film history.
’s luxurious lineup will undoubtedly help the Spring Festival box office. Yin Tengyu said that the market on the first day of the Spring Festival season will definitely be mainly supported by the first three films, but the subsequent performance of the market still depends on the post-release word-of-mouth performance of all the films. Many of the previous Spring Festival box office champions were not "blockbusters" before the release, and some films even failed to make it into the top three at the box office on the first day of release. However, they still managed to win the Spring Festival box office crown with their outstanding reputation.
At present, third-party media such as Integrated Movies Winter and Poisonous Milk Movies have advanced predictions. The predicted total box office of "Hot and Spicy" is 2.2-3.5 billion yuan; "Article 20" is 1.88-2.1 billion yuan; "Flying Life" 2》is 1.5-2 billion yuan.
Yin Tengyu told reporters that the valid days of the Spring Festival holiday this year (from the first to the eighth day of the lunar month) are 2 more days than in previous years (from the first to the sixth day of the lunar month). Therefore, the holiday box office can accumulate 2 more days during the period, so there is a greater chance of exceeding last year’s Spring Festival box office. But the final performance still depends on the quality and reputation of the films released this year.
Last year’s Spring Festival box office took the second place in Chinese film history with a total box office of 6.762 billion yuan. Compared with last year, there are no industrial special effects blockbusters “taking the lead” this year, which also brings a bit of uncertainty to who will take the top spot at the box office. sex.
“Currently, the overlapping degree of wanting to watch the three films exceeds the diversion warning value (15%). It is foreseeable that the three films will face varying degrees of risk of being diverted, and the proportion of viewers who have only watched one film during the Spring Festival over the past years has reached More than 80%, so how to become the first choice of the audience will be the biggest challenge for top films." Yin Tengyu said.
In addition to the above three films, the "family carnival" animated film "Bear Infested: Reverse Time and Space", which was produced by China Film and Wanda Film (002739.sz) and participated in the investment by Hengdian Film and Television, is regarded by many industry insiders as the "most stable" during the Spring Festival. Film. In addition, the warm and healing-style movie "Let's Shake the Sun Together", which was produced by China Film and invested by Hengdian Film and Television, also attracted good attention.
As for whether there will be new films to "disrupt the situation" in the future, Yin Tengyu believes that there are currently less than 20 days left before the Spring Festival film is released. For such a big period as the Spring Festival, the less than 20-day promotion cycle is too tight. If the film is released, Insufficient pre-publicity will greatly affect the first day's film schedule and box office, which will further affect subsequent word-of-mouth fermentation and total box office performance. "Therefore, from the perspective of publicity and distribution, the pattern of Spring Festival films has been basically determined, and the possibility of subsequent major changes is small."
(California reporter Cui Ming)
