Author | mia
Editor | Akagi Bottle
There is still more than half a month before the official Spring Festival holiday. Many films have been scheduled, and the Spring Festival release war has finally begun.
In November last year, Ning Hao's new film "Mr. Red Carpet" starring Andy Lau was the first to announce that it would be rescheduled for the New Year's Day. Han Han's IP "Flying Life 2" was announced on January 10, with Shen Teng and other original cast members returning, and the "fixed cast" "Bear Infested: Reverse Time and Space" was also announced to be released, and then Han Yan directed "Trilogy of Life" The final chapter of the series, "Let's Shake the Sun Together" starring Peng Yuchang and Li Gengxi has been announced. The next day, Jia Ling's new film "Hot and Spicy" was announced, and on the 13th, Zhang Yimou's new film "Article 20" was the last to appear.
The trend of "unified release" and "unified pre-sale" has become more and more obvious , and the promotion period of several blockbusters has been compressed to just over half a month. But the same starting line does not mean that the speed after the gunshot is the same. The number of people who want to watch and the pre-screening popularity of each film are very different, and the various echelons are clearly distinct.
star creators took the lead in taking the lead. Jia Ling posted on Weibo that she had successfully lost 100 kilograms in order to film the Spring Festival movie "Hot and Spicy". She disappeared for nearly a year and declined all public appearances. Her own weight loss incident has become the best marketing tool has dominated social media and has been analyzed by bloggers in various fields such as fitness and medical. If goes without incident, the film may have secured the top seed in advance. Shen Teng, whose has built-in box office appeal and is standard in the Spring Festival, posted on his blog that "Zhangchi is back."
six films are released at once, and the Matthew Effect remains the same during the Spring Festival. It will amplify the strength of the strong and further highlight the tragedy of the frustrated. Soon the market will officially test the results, but under the "two heroes" pattern, there seems to be little suspense.
5 comedies gathered together: Zhang Yimou competes in the Spring Festival for three games, Jia Ling locks the top seed in advance?
Every year during the Spring Festival, it is not only a big time period when counterattacks are staged repeatedly and miracles are achieved by breaking the rules, but it is also a time period with the most brutal competition. The high ticket subsidy, film scheduling fees, and publicity fees all determine that this is an unforgettable time. A site suitable for small and medium-sized players.
This year is undoubtedly the one with the highest "comedy content". Five of the six films of are classified as "comedies". The production cycle is short, and there is no "ballast" for large-scale industrial productions. does not have diversified choices for the audience to adjust their tastes. The duplication of genres means that competition is more intense. The siphon effect may become more significant. - Audiences will choose the funniest one or two films, the others may be abandoned or reduced to cannon fodder.
Specifically, the "Sports + Comedy" type "Hot" was adapted from Douban's 8.4-rated "100-Yen Love", a high-scoring Japanese film starring actress Sakura Ando. The original work is a very "Japanese mourning", It is a gloomy story that needs to be understood in the Japanese context. It tells the story of "how to regain dignity through boxing in a life that has been completely defeated." There are many high-scoring movies about boxing sports such as "Million Dollar Baby". How will the film be localized? The adapted, comedic, and inspirational adaptation of is exciting but also a little worrying.
still holds the box office record for the Spring Festival. The 5 billion+ "Hello, Li Huanying" triggered a craze for female themes. Jia Ling herself has national favorability. Her weight loss has triggered a hot topic. She has been forwarded millions of times on Weibo. starring and director herself Forming an inspirational intertext with the story, "Hot and Spicy" is a comedy tailor-made for the Spring Festival in every aspect, and the champion is beginning to appear. currently has an estimated value of 3.5 billion+ from the media. The upper limit of the sports genre has never been high, and this film may set a new record.
The only one that has a certain degree of competitiveness and can be ranked in the first echelon with "Hot and Spicy" may be Zhang Yimou's "Legal Reality + Comedy" type "Article 20". "Article 20" refers to the provisions on legitimate defense and excessive defense in Article 20 of my country's Criminal Law. The original name of the movie "Article 20" is "Justified Defense". The film is cut from the perspective of a prosecutor, and its focus on people's livelihood and real-life themes, as well as the balance between legal principles and human feelings, mean that the film may have strong topicality and strong emotional resonance - and this is a magic weapon that has been successfully verified many times.
After entering the Spring Festival stalls for the third time, "National Master" has become more and more steady. The fifth generation of directors has re-engaged in realistic themes, and its box office appeal has been increasing, especially after "Man Jiang Hong", which topped the Spring Festival stalls last year with a total of 4.5 billion+. It remains to be seen how effective the integration of elements in "Article 20" will be.
In addition to the two top films mentioned above, the other four films belong to the second echelon. "Flying Life 2" has been 5 years since the first one with a box office of 1.7 billion+ was released. Shen Teng is collaborating with Han Han for the third time. The IP itself has a certain fan base and appeal, but can it counterattack and bring unexpected surprises? , depends on its own quality. Han Han is good at language and humor, but when he loses control, the images become fragmented. The reputation and box office of "Four Seas" collapsed, which cast a layer of uncertainty on "Flying Life 2".
As the most influential young animation in IP, the "Bear Infested" series has a stable and rising performance every year. Last year's "Bear 9" grossed 1.495 billion at the box office, becoming the highest in the series. This year's 10th anniversary movie, as the only animation in the schedule, can expect similar or even higher results than last year.
"Mr. Red Carpet" is Ning Hao's new work after "Crazy Alien", which appears on the screen as a creator rather than a producer for the first time in a long time. This film is also his second collaboration with Andy Lau, the man who started his movie dream. The film is a satirical comedy "inside the entertainment industry". It tells the story of Hong Kong superstar Liu Weichi, who has been in movies for 40 years, and in order to win the Best Actor Award, he collaborates with director Lin Hao to make a rural-themed film, which triggers a series of absurd farces.
"Mr. Red Carpet" has been rescheduled several times. It was screened as a surprise film at the 7th Pingyao International Film Festival, and also premiered at the 48th Toronto Film Festival. At present, it seems that fans have mixed reviews, with some comments saying that " out of control". In addition, satirical comedies have a certain audience threshold, and the or box office ceiling is limited. In addition, Andy Lau himself competed with "Stealth" and "Goldfinger" during the Lunar New Year holiday, which were released intensively, which may also have caused a certain degree of fans' aesthetic fatigue.
Among the five comedies "Fight", the only one labeled as a drama family film is "Let's Shake the Sun Together", which is the same as the previous work in the trilogy "Get Out!" Like "Tumor King" and "Send You a Little Red Flower", this film is still a "crying film" centered on terminally ill patients. It is partly based on the documentary article "The Most Utilitarian Marriage Deal, the Most Emotional Eternal Promise". Judging from past experience, this type does not have an advantage during the Spring Festival. Peng Yuchang + Li Gengxi’s early appeal in announcing pre-sales is not as good as that of Yi Yang Qianxi. needs to wait and see word-of-mouth and long-tail effects. The film dared to airdrop into the Spring Festival release, which shows that the film maker has confidence in the quality, and also reflects the "lack of films" and weakness in the Spring Festival release.
In addition, has "shrunk" in terms of type, quantity and volume during the Spring Festival this year. Compared with the top IPs in previous years, the two blockbusters are also more limited in weight. Compared with last year's Spring Festival, which had the second highest box office in film history, the genres are rich and diverse, from the sci-fi industrial production "The Wandering Earth 2", to the top-rated suspense comedy "Man Jiang Hong" directed by a top-tier director, to the top-tier "China Victory Three" The audience has much more choices, such as the song, the spy film "Unknown", and the Chinese comic "Deep Sea" where Tian Xiaopeng "sharpened his sword for ten years". We will continue to observe whether a single genre will affect audience enthusiasm.
The capital bureau behind the 2024 Spring Festival stalls
From the perspective of the producers behind the scenes, most films still maintain the style of "strong binding + acquaintance bureau". Those IP sequels and trilogy series have already set development plans early, and most of them Consistent with the previous work. During the most important period of the year, many leading listed companies appeared.
Xinli Media is one of the producers of "Hello, Li Huanying". Xinli Media's net profit in 2020 was 407 million yuan, completing the bet. In addition to popular dramas such as "Celebrating More Than Years" and "Sister-in-law", it also cooperated with " "Hello, Li Huanying" is not unrelated. This time he appears as the main producer of "Hot and Spicy". Other producers include Yuewen Film and Television and Penguin Film and Television, both of Tencent. Jia Ling’s own Big Bowl Entertainment is currently ranked fifth among the producers . Given the success of "Li Huanying", it is very likely that the remuneration and account sharing will increase, and the outside world estimates that its income will exceed 200 million yuan.
After "Sniper", "River Red" and "Solid as a Rock", Enlight Media once again deeply tied up with Zhang Yimou and produced "Article 20" , another blockbuster Chinese comic with extremely high expectations this year. ip "Nezha 2: The Demon Boy Havoc in the Sea" will most likely be released in the summer. Animation genres are limited in size during the Spring Festival. The characteristics of live-action movies, comedy positioning, and Zhang Yimou's direction make "Article 20" more suitable for the Spring Festival period with strong family fun attributes. Compared with the combination of "Shen Teng + Yi Yang Qianxi" in "Man Jiang Hong", the national popularity of the starring film is insufficient. This film will test the distribution ability of Guangwang.
The film stars a prosecutor. On the Beacon Professional Edition, the production unit of the film is shown to be the Propaganda Department of the Beijing Municipal Party Committee and the People's Procuratorate of Langfang, Hebei Province. The producer is the Film and Television Center of the Supreme People's Procuratorate, so it may have a theme attribute.
Huanxi Media, which is linked to famous directors, has once again continued the style of "one blockbuster a year". In addition to Huanxi Media, Ning Hao's Bad Monkey Pictures and Andy Lau's Stupid Kid Pictures are the producers of "Mr. Red Carpet". Lianrui Pictures and Han Yan have deeply tied up with . Previous tear-jerking family films have been quite successful, and they have made small gains over and over again. "Let's Shake the Sun Together" is Han Yan's first time to break into the Spring Festival movie.
In the past, as the second and third largest shareholders of Tingdong, Alibaba Pictures and Bona Pictures have appeared in Tingdong Pictures’ works many times. "Flying Life 2", like "Riding the Wind and Waves" and "Four Seas" and other Han Han movies, is still a combination of Tingdong Pictures + Bona Pictures.
"Bear Infested: Reverse Time and Space" can be said to be the project with the most stable return on investment during the Spring Festival. It is supported by Fantawild Park and offline derivative products, and has also won the favor of many listed companies. In addition to Wanda Film, Hengdian Film and Television, and China Film Group, the upstart Ruyi Pictures, which has just taken control of Wanda Film, also appeared on the production list of "Bear Infested: Reverse Time and Space".
Another thing you can see is that "National Team" China Film is the company that has participated in the most projects , and has arranged four films: "Hot and Spicy", "Flying Life 2", "Bear Infested: Reverse Time and Space" and "Let's Shake the Sun Together" . Relying on their strong channel distribution capabilities, the two major Internet film companies Maoyan Entertainment and Alibaba Pictures have appeared behind many films. Maoyan participated in "Flying Life 2" and "Bear Infested: Reverse Time and Space", and Alibaba Pictures participated in "Hot and Spicy".
Even if it is not the "strongest session", the pressure and variables during the Spring Festival are still great. With so much capital entering the game, some will be happy and some will be sad.
statistics show that the average ticket price of movies during the Spring Festival in 2023 is 52.3 yuan, ranking first in the annual ticket price. High ticket prices are determined by the relationship between supply and demand, which supports schedule performance and also blocks some viewers. It remains to be verified whether the problems of high ticket prices and number of moviegoers can be improved during this year's Spring Festival.
Judging from the performance of the past year, the market is accelerating recovery, and at the same time it is also accelerating structural transformation, sinking further, and is more favorable to domestic films. Everbright Securities used the ticket price method to predict the box office in 2024, and concluded that the box office in 2024 is conservatively estimated at 54.93 billion yuan, neutrally estimated at 58.88 billion yuan, and optimistically estimated at 63.01 billion yuan. A good start to the New Year's Day schedule laid the foundation for the restoration of the film and television market in 2024. The Spring Festival will be crucial to how far the full-year goals can be achieved.
