Will Lai Qingde, who publicly calls himself a "Taiwan independence worker," more radical than Tsai Ing-wen, take super risks that the DPP authorities have never dared to take before, and promote de jure "Taiwan independence" in some way? I think he has this intention, but he may not be able to do it, because the pattern of votes determines that he is much weaker than Tsai Ing-wen. He is almost a "lame duck" as soon as he takes office, and walking on the tightrope will be a fate he has to accept. In addition, the U.S. factor is very important. At present, the United States does not want Lai Qingde to provoke a bigger issue, and does not want the DPP to trigger a war and involve the United States.
Lai Qingde only received 40.05% of the votes. His two opponents, Hou Youyi of the Kuomintang and Ke Wenzhe of the People's Party, received 33.49% and 26.46% of the votes respectively. The latter two combined to nearly 60%, while Tsai Ing-wen was elected to Taiwan for two terms. The leaders received 57.1% of the vote in 2020 and 56.12% in 2016. Moreover, in the two so-called "Legislative Yuan" at that time, the DPP had 68 and 61 seats respectively, which was more than half of the seats. This time in Taiwan’s so-called “Legislative Yuan” election held simultaneously on Saturday, the Democratic Progressive Party only won 51 seats and lost a full 10 seats, losing more than half of the seats. Instead, the Kuomintang won back the largest seat in Taiwan’s legislative body with 52 seats. Party location. In addition, the People's Party won 8 seats and independents won 2 seats. The structure of Taiwan's legislative body has changed, and Ko Wenzhe's People's Party has become a key minority.
As a provincial governor supported by only 40% of the votes, the "Legislative Yuan" has lost its majority. This is Lai Qingde's political foundation. He will be destined to be restrained. He will not be able to deal with major controversial issues such as arms purchases and cross-strait policies. Do whatever you want.
Lai Qingde is not only weak because his provincial governor received few votes and the DPP lost its majority in the "Legislative Yuan", but also because this vote showed the new political demands of Taiwanese voters, especially young voters. Ko Wenzhe received more than a quarter of the votes, and young people accounted for the majority of his supporters. According to the analysis of some media and institutions, he has basically broken Taiwan's "two-party structure" and become a "third party" with a strong presence. Moreover, he has taken more votes from the Democratic Progressive Party than from the Kuomintang. .
This situation is enough to give the DPP a chill down the back while celebrating its third term, because many young people are turning their backs on the DPP and standing around Ke Wenzhe. Those young people are influenced by propaganda and "fear reunification", but at the same time they do not like the DPP's extreme line of confronting the mainland and pushing Taiwan to the brink of war. They are even tired of geopolitics, and their strongest demands focus on people's livelihood. In the field, they oppose high housing prices, low wages, and pay attention to labor insurance. The most prominent image of the DPP authorities in recent years is "anti-China." In the past few years, Taiwan's chip foundry industry has been unparalleled, bringing a lot of dividends. Now the chip industry is accelerating changes. Taiwan's GDP growth rate has dropped to 2.4% and 1.4% for two consecutive years. The economic downturn first hit young people, and they passed Voting expressed their demands and dissatisfaction, putting the DPP, which had a "miserable victory", under tremendous pressure to adjust its policies.
Ke Wenzhe and the People's Party stated that they will not form an alliance with either the Kuomintang or the Democratic Progressive Party in the legislative body, but will choose partners based on specific issues. Regarding cross-strait issues, Ke Wenzhe said this in 2019: Taiwan's fight for resources from the United States is like "a robber (referring to Taiwan) who only sees money in his eyes but not the police (referring to mainland China)." Due to long-term misleading propaganda, This has led to some Taiwanese voters becoming alienated from the mainland, but concerns that the DPP's extreme line may trigger a war are also rising. On the major issues of preventing secession and avoiding war, there should be room for cooperation between the Kuomintang and the key minority People's Party in the legislative body.
The factors in the United States will be the key external lever that affects what Lai Qingde does. So far, the Western world has basically congratulated Lai Qingde on his election, but almost all of the congratulators are at the level of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Even the foreign minister of Lithuania came forward to congratulate him. There was no head of state in the list of congratulations from the Western camp. The only one who spoke out was US President Biden, but he only said one sentence: We do not support (Taiwan) independence.
The U.S. policy toward Taiwan is complex and multifaceted, but the Biden administration does not want a war to break out in the Taiwan Strait, and it does not want the situation in the Taiwan Strait to change seriously during an election year. I believe that the U.S. has already conveyed this message to Lai Qingde. The next US election is coming, and it is unknown whether Trump will return to the White House. However, it is unbelievable that the US will directly shift from preventing China from regaining Taiwan by force to supporting and encouraging Lai Qingde to provoke a war. Lao Hu believes that the mainland’s military deterrence is there, and Tsai Ing-wen’s line has basically come to an end. Not to mention that the United States is wary of Washington telling Lai Qingde to move forward. Do the snobs of the Democratic Progressive Party dare to rush? question mark.
Nauru, Taiwan's small "diplomatic country", announced on Monday that it would "sever diplomatic relations" with Taiwan. This is a prominent event and has become the biggest "congratulatory gift" received by Lai Ching-te when he was elected as the leader of the Taiwan region. Nauru's "severance of diplomatic relations" directly turned the "happy event" of Lai Qingde's election into a "mourning event", and is another reflection of the power structure of the Taiwan Strait game.
The results of Taiwan's election will generally continue the negative nature of cross-strait relations, but for the mainland, the result itself does not increase the additional burden on us to oppose "independence" and promote reunification. Although Lai Qingde is very radical in his thinking, there is an old saying in China that power is stronger than people. For the mainland, our rapid growth and accumulation of strength, as well as our ever-increasing preparations for military struggle, have formed an effective deterrent, establishing red line awareness both within Taiwanese society and for the United States. What we have to do next is to insist on accelerating the implementation of the strategy of self-strengthening and the pace of work while maintaining bottom-line thinking. No matter what happens in Taiwan, we can strategize.
