Financial News Agency, December 30 (Editor Zhao Hao) The last trading day of 2023 is coming to an end. Throughout the year, the U.S. stock market as a whole rose steadily, with the Dow hitting new highs at the end of the year, the S&P returning to near historical highs, and the Nasdaq also recording an annual increase of over 40%.
Tom Lee, co-founder and research director of Fundstrat Global Advisors, an American investment institution, expects the stock market to have another solid year. The Federal Reserve has previously hinted that it will cut interest rates in 2024, and Lee pointed out that the easing of financial conditions will be a key driver for further gains in the stock market.
But Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said that the valuation level of the U.S. stock market has now reached a state that "cannot be mistaken". Investors are optimistic about inflation, economic growth, the labor market and corporate profit margins in 2024. Have high expectations.
Monthly chart of the S&P 500 index
Looking ahead to next week, in the first week of 2024, there will be a number of major economic events. The most eye-catching one is undoubtedly the U.S. non-agricultural report next Friday (January 5), Beijing time. Currently, economists expect non-farm employment to increase by 158,000 in December, with the unemployment rate rising slightly to 3.8%.
In addition to non-farm payrolls, the Federal Reserve is also scheduled to release the minutes of its December monetary policy meeting next Thursday (January 4), Beijing time. At the meeting on December 13, the Federal Reserve once again decided to keep interest rates unchanged. Chairman Powell also revealed that "interest rate cuts have begun to come into view, and policymakers are thinking and discussing when to cut interest rates."
announced at the time the "dot matrix" Figure "shows that officials generally believe that the federal funds rate will drop to 4.5% to 4.75% by the end of 2024, which means that at a rate of 25 basis points each time, there may be three interest rate cuts next year. Minutes to be published will give further details on the above decisions.
In the euro zone, Eurostat will publish an inflation report. Previously, many ECB officials emphasized that the work of controlling consumer prices has not yet been completed and there is still "some way to go." Some believe that the European Central Bank may cut interest rates for the first time later than the Federal Reserve.
In addition, the spillover risks of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict also deserve attention. Recently, many ships were attacked by Yemeni Houthi armed forces while sailing to the Red Sea and nearby waters, triggering sharp fluctuations in international crude oil prices. Research data released yesterday by Clarksons Research showed that the number of ships regularly transiting the Suez Canal has dropped significantly.
Earlier this week, shipping giant Maersk said it had arranged for dozens of its cargo ships to return to the Red Sea in the next few days. Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn believes that if the threat to routes in the Red Sea region increases again, the decline in oil prices may reverse.
Overview of important economic events next week:
Monday (January 1): South Korea’s initial December trade account value
Tuesday (January 2): Euro zone December manufacturing PMI final value, UK December manufacturing PMI, U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI final value in December, U.S. construction spending monthly rate in November
Wednesday (January 3): Richmond Fed Chairman Barkin spoke on the economic outlook, U.S. ism manufacturing PMI in December, U.S. November jolts job vacancies
Thursday (January 4th): The Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the monetary policy meeting , the final value of the Eurozone’s December service industry PMI, the UK’s December service industry PMI, the initial value of the German December CPI monthly rate, the United States 12 Monthly ADP employment, US December markit service industry PMI final value, US December global supply chain stress index
Friday (January 5): US eia commercial/strategic crude oil inventories for the week to December 29, euro Initial value of annual cpi rate in December , Euro zone ppi monthly rate in November, US non-farm employment population in December , US December ism non-manufacturing PMI, US factory order monthly rate in November
Saturday (1 March 6): Richmond Fed Chairman Barkin delivered a speech at the Maryland Bankers Association
(Financial Associated Press Zhao Hao)
