war in Ukraine has entered its 11th month. And, with 2022 looming, people are starting to ask the question: Where is the war in Ukraine headed? Will it end in 2023? Will it decide the outcome on the battlefield? Or will it be decided at the negotiating table? Or will it go all the way to 2024? A British media interviewed several experts on these issues. Today, I will share with you the views of these experts.
1, British expert Professor Clark: "Russia's spring offensive will be the key"
Friends who have followed this account for a long time will not be unfamiliar with Professor Clark in the UK. Former Director of the Royal United Services Institute. However, when this media introduced him, it gave a title that I had never seen before: Deputy Director of the Strategic Research Institute of Exeter (University) in the UK.
In his view, those who tried to invade another country anywhere on the Eurasian steppes were ultimately doomed to spend the winter there.
Historically, Napoleon, Hitler, and Stalin all had to keep their armies moving in the face of steppe winter. But now, for Putin , the Russian army has "regressed" on the ground, and the Russian army is preparing to spend the winter there, waiting for a new offensive when spring comes.
He analyzed that in the current situation, both sides need to pause, but the Ukrainians are better equipped and motivated to keep going. It can be expected that they will maintain the pressure on the Russian army, at least in the Donbass area.
awaits at Kremina and Svatov, they are very close to a major breakthrough which will push the Russian army back 67 km all the way to the next natural defense line. That line will be close to where they actually kicked off their operations in February.
Kyiv will be reluctant to stop when the rewards at hand are so great. However, with the recapture of Kherson , the Ukrainian offensive may pause in the southwest.
crossed the east side of the Dnieper River , and connected Russia's fragile roads and railways to Crimea , which may be too demanding for the Ukrainian army. Even so, Professor Clark believes that the possibility of Kyiv launching a new offensive suddenly cannot be ruled out.
For 2023, the key determining factor will be the fate of Russia's spring offensive. Some 50,000 newly mobilized troops are already on the front lines, Putin acknowledged; another 250,000 freshly mobilized are being trained for deployment next year.
Until the fate of these new Russian armies is determined on the battlefield, there is nothing left to do but more wars.
A short and shaky ceasefire is the only other prospect. Putin has made it clear he will not stop. Ukraine has made it clear that it is still fighting for its life.
2, Andrei Piontkovsky: "Ukraine will win back its land"
Mr. Piontkovsky, this is the first time I heard of it. He is a scientist and analyst based in Washington, DC, USA.
In his view: Ukraine will achieve victory by fully restoring its territorial integrity by the spring of 2023 at the latest. He believes two factors are making such an outcome possible.
One is the energy, determination and courage of the Ukrainian army and the entire Ukrainian nation. This is unprecedented in the history of modern warfare.
Another fact is that after years of appeasement of the Kremlin,, the West has finally grown up and realized the seriousness of the historical challenges it faces. This is best illustrated by a recent statement by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. He said: "The price we pay is money. The price Ukrainians pay is blood. If the authoritarian regime sees that force is rewarded, we will all pay a higher price. The world will become a more dangerous place for all of us. .”
He believes that the exact timing of Ukraine's inevitable victory will depend on how quickly NATO delivers game-changing new military assault weapons (tanks, aircraft, long-range missiles, ).
He predicts: Melitopol will be a key battleground in the coming months (maybe weeks). After liberating Melitopol, the Ukrainians would easily move to Azov , effectively cutting off supply and communication lines to Crimea.
Russia will formally agree to surrender in technical talks after Ukraine makes devastating advances on the battlefield. The winning powers—Ukraine, Britain, the United States—will shape a new international security architecture.
3, Barbara Zancheta: "There is no end in sight"
This is the first time I see Barbara Zancheta's name. He is a teacher in the Department of War Studies at King's College London.
She talked about Putin's miscalculation from the beginning. She said Putin expected Ukraine to passively accept Russia's actions without meaningful engagement from other countries. This grave miscalculation led to a protracted conflict with seemingly no end in sight.
In her view, the winter will be difficult, as Russia's attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure will try to hit the morale and endurance of an already shattered population. But Ukraine has proven to be very good at resilience. They will stand firm. The war will continue. continue. The outlook for the
negotiations is bleak. For a potential peace agreement, at least one party's core needs need to change. There is no evidence that this has happened, or will happen anytime soon.
So how will the end of the war come?
The cost of war, both material and human, could break the level of commitment of the Russian political elite to war. The key will (appear) in Russia. In the past, wars in which misjudgment was the key factor, such as the United States'16zVietnam War and the Soviet Union'sAfghanistan War, all ended in this way.
The domestic political situation in this miscalculated country has changed to make exit (whether "decent" or not) the only viable option.
However, this may only happen if the West stands firmly behind Ukraine in the face of increased domestic pressure related to the cost of the war.
Sadly, this will continue to be a protracted political, economic and military showdown. By the end of 2023, it will likely still be a work in progress.
4, Ben Hodges: "There is no other result except Russia's failure"
Speaking of Hodges, friends who are familiar with this account should be familiar with it. He is the former commander of U.S. Army Forces Europe.
He believes that it is too early to plan a victory parade in Kyiv, but now all the momentum is on Ukraine, and in his view, there is no doubt that the Ukrainians will win the war, probably in 2023.
The pace of winter will slow down, but there is no doubt that with all the winter equipment coming from the UK, Canada and Germany, Ukraine's military will be better equipped than Russia's to handle it all.
He is very optimistic! He believes that by January 2023, Ukraine may be able to begin the final phase of the campaign to liberate Crimea.
History tells us that war is a test of will as well as logistics. When we see the determination of the Ukrainian people and soldiers, and Ukraine's rapidly improving logistics, he said he sees no other outcome than Russia's defeat.
Why does he think so? He said the Russian withdrawal from Kherson partly led him to that conclusion.
First it was a psychological boost to the Ukrainian people, second it was a deep embarrassment to the Kremlin, and third it gave the Ukrainian military a key operational advantage - all roads into Crimea are now within range of Ukrainian weapons systems Inside.
He believes: By the end of 2023, Ukraine will fully regain control and sovereignty over Crimea, although there may be some form or agreement that allows Russia to gradually withdraw part of its naval presence in Sevastopol… …maybe even by the end of the treaty (around 2025). The treaty existed before Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea.
He believes that, subsequently, the reconstruction of infrastructure along the Sea of Azov in Ukraine will start, including the important ports Mariupol and Berdyansk, while the North Crimean Transport that diverts the Dnieper River to Crimea will begin. The reopening of the river will be another important project in the spotlight.
5, David Gendelman: &39;Expect more of the same thing&39; He is a Israeli military expert.
Here, instead of discussing "how will this end", ask: what is the goal that each party hopes to achieve in the next stage.
Only about half of Russia's 300,000 mobilized troops are already in theater. The rest, along with the troops vacated by the retreat from Kherson, gave the Russians the opportunity to attack.
occupation of luhansk and donetsk areas will continue but russia is unlikely to make a major breakthrough like ukrainian troops going south to pavlograd to encircle donbass something like this ,Not too possible.
It is more likely that the Russian army continues the current tactics, and the Ukrainian army continues to "grind" slowly and slowly advance in narrow directions, such as in the Bakhmut and Avdivka areas. In the Svatov-Kremina area, the Russian army may use the same tactics.
's continued targeting of Ukrainian energy infrastructure and other attacks on the Ukrainian rear will give this strategy of attrition a final run.
After the retreat of the Russian army from Kherson, the important Ukrainian army was also freed. For them, the direction of most strategic value is to go south, to Melitopol or Berdyansk, in order to cut off the corridor to the Russian mainland to Crimea. If it can do that, it will be a major win for Ukraine, and that's why the Russians have strengthened Melitopol's defense. Another option for
Ukraine is Svatov. If successful there, they would jeopardize the entire northern flank of the entire Russian front.
the big question is: how many Ukrainian troops are free to attack at this time and what schedule does Ukrainian commander-in-chief General Zaluzhny have on his desk, that is, the new reserve brigades and corps that are being built Ready in a month, two months or three months, including manpower, armored vehicles and heavy weapons. We will have the answer to this question when the mud on the road freezes, such as
. And this answer will make it easier for us to answer the question of "how will this end".
Conclusion
You may want to know: which expert's analysis I prefer.
can only say this: the analysis of these five people has its own merits. In the end, David’s analysis of what the two sides will do next is still good. In fact, the Ukrainian army has launched a tough battle in Cremina, and the two sides are fighting fiercely these days. The general prediction is that the Ukrainian army will take Kremina in the near future.
Hodges' analysis is a bit too optimistic, perhaps because he believes that Western countries led by the United States will provide Ukraine with all the equipment it needs as soon as possible. He did not mention that the Ukrainian army needs to liberate the remaining territories of Zaporozhya state, and Kherson state first, and directly said that the Ukrainian army may be able to start preparing for the capture of Crimea in January 2023. Clearly, something is missing here.
As for Barbara, she seems to bet more on the possibility of major changes in Russian domestic politics. On this point, perhaps she underestimated the Kremlin. However, it is not impossible. In recent times, Putin has canceled at least 12 planned public appearances or events. Is there a secret behind it? If so, what will be the situation? It seems that the conflict between the Wagner Group and the Russian General Staff has become a bit more open. Will this have an impact on the next situation or war efforts? In Russia, some propagandists seem to be starting to argue: stop fighting Bakhmut. This is a relatively new trend, what does this mean? It remains to be seen. But all of this seems to be pointing against the Kremlin.
As for Professor Clark, he seems to have determined that the Russian army will launch a new round of offensive next spring. For this, my analysis is as follows: the Russian army launched the spring offensiveThe odds are actually not great. The high-level Russian army should be very clear that relying on newly mobilized soldiers to fight the war cannot be compared with the Russian army when the operation was launched at the end of February this year, and the equipment is not as good as before. You may remember that the shells were almost gone. Oh, I forgot to share this point with you: In Bakhmut, a Wagner soldier recorded a video, directly shouting at the Chief of the Russian General Staff Gerasimov , scolding him, and saying that they have no shells!
High-precision missiles are also running out (although they are still in production, but at a slower speed), tanks, aircraft, armored vehicles, etc. cannot keep up. In my opinion, this spring offensive is at best on paper, perhaps part of a psychological war to bring the Ukrainians back to the negotiating table. However, the Ukrainians have already seen through the Kremlin's mind.
However, Professor Clark's other analysis is quite reasonable. For this, I have to admire. Therefore, the Ukrainian army will definitely make full use of the advantages of weather, location and harmony this winter to further expand the results of the battle. Now it seems that there has been a big move in the north of in Luhansk Oblast. After that, there will be Zaporozhye direction.
Mr Piontkovsky's analysis puts too much hope on the Kremlin being forced to negotiate to end this. Perhaps, he didn't know that someone was using all the resources?
Of course his analysis of the battle of Melitopol makes sense, which of course was a key battle in southern Ukraine.
Alright, I will share it with you today. The comments in the conclusion part are just personal interpretations, please don’t laugh at the inappropriate parts. As for whether it makes sense, time will tell. thank you all! (End)
