has come out with endless calls, we should start with data mining and sorting to dig out every potential hit movie.
First look at the domestic movie box office rankings. Based on the hot movie elements mentioned in the previous film stock series, we sorted out the detailed data below to analyze in detail why these movies are so popular!
(Note: This table does not cover the 2019 summer movies, such as "Nezha: The Devil's Child", "Heroes of Fire", etc.)
(1) The top table of
is very important. At least these elements can be sorted out:
1. The best hot movie schedule is undoubtedly the Spring Festival, which is characterized by extremely high attendance, followed by summer and National Day, which also fully benefit from the vacation attendance advantage. These three periods basically cover 90% of the hit movies. So every June, September, and January, we start to enter the cycle of intensive mining of hot movies, and there are 5 to 10 hot movies every year.
2. The best hot theme is naturally comedy. Family fun is easy to get a high box office. In addition, fantasy movies have been trending well in recent years. War, action, and science fiction have always performed well, but pure love Generally, there are no explosive styles in the category, history, and literature. In addition, under the influence of the God of Medicine last year, movies with realistic themes are also potential future directions.
3. For domestic films, both the director and the lead actor have greatly helped the initial appeal of the film. Through these dozens of high-grossing movies, we can sort out a ranking of potential hotspots based on the data. Of course, this ranking will also be subject to changes in the selling degree of their new movies in the future. The current personal ranking is as follows (note: ranking is not for performance Their level of judgment, but the judgment of box office expectations):
five stars: Wu Jing (no matter how others slander, the top two domestic movies at the box office are closely related to him, no matter what the quality of the actual film is, you see Wu Jing and see the explosion Four stars:
: Zhou Xingchi (Xing Ye’s box office appeal was not lost to Wu Jing, but this year’s new king of comedy was ruined); Shen Teng, Huang Bo, Xu Zheng, Wang Baoqiang, etc. (look at these names, How many times have appeared, comedy hits)
three stars: Feng Xiaogang, Zhang Yimou, Chen Kaige (three major directors); Jackie Chan, Andy Lau, Aaron Kwok, Tony Leung, Chow Yun-fat, Zhang Jiahui, Liu Qingyun, Louis Koo, Daniel Wu, Zhang Hanyu, Deng Chao, etc.
two stars: Jiang Wen (it was supposed to be in the same list as the three major directors, but the film is too few, and there are always high and few songs), Guan Hu, Tian Yusheng, Zhuang Wenqiang; Zhao Wei, Shu Qi, Zhang Ziyi, Yao Chen, Jing Boran, Jiang Wu, Luo Zhixiang, Articles, Bai Baihe, Zhang Yi, Du Jiang, Huang Xiaoming, etc.
one star: all kinds of general acting traffic stars, etc. (Lu Han, Li Yifeng, Wu Yifan, Lin Gengxin, Yang Mi, Yang Ying, etc., easy to increase the initial box office)
4. Total box office and first day box office The ratio is positively correlated with film reputation, although it is not a linear ratio. Because the film is usually shown on Thursday or Friday, the base numbers of the two days will be different. The base of movies released on Thursday will be smaller than that on Friday, but the time for word-of-mouth fermentation is more. If the response is strong, it will often hit the high box office in three days on weekends. The base number of movies released on Friday will be larger than that on Thursday. If the pre-publicity is properly or has already been screened, the opening day will begin to explode.
5. In terms of word-of-mouth, watching Douban, Maoyan, and Taopiao for domestic movies is enough. You don't need to pay attention to foreign rating websites such as IMDb, Metacritic, and Rotten Tomatoes. Imported movies can focus on the latter three. What do you think about these ratings?
a. Maoyan and Taopiao tickets generally have a higher overall rating and are more focused on ordinary audiences. Generally, movies are "cool" and are often served with 10 points; Douban generally has a low overall rating and focuses more on literary and artistic audiences. The plot and logic, as well as the thinking of the film.
b. Douban scores above 8.0 are considered absolute masterpieces. In the picture above, there are only Red Sea operations, I am not a medicine god, Mekong operations, and Wushuang. Their total box office/first day box office ratio is 20. Times or even higher, also corresponds to the box office exceeding expectations. Douban scores below 6.0 can be classified as bad movies. Even if the box office is acceptable, it comes from the initial accumulation. Their total box office/first day box office ratio is 10 times or even lower, which also corresponds to the box office is not as good. expected.
c. For movies with Douban scores between 6.0 and 8.0, you can focus on the scores of Maoyan and Taopiao. If the scores of Maoyan and Taopiao are above 9.0, they may have good abilities, similar to Wolf Warriors 2. , The Wandering Earth, The Mermaid, as long as Maoyan and Taoping ticket scores are high, the box office will be a big hit and even create miracles.
6. I want to see the number (generally just look at the cat’s eye statistics), which reflects the initial attention of the film. After 2014, there are almost no “wanting” works below 50,000, so hundreds of movies per year In theaters, the number of "want to watch" is a good indicator of how to find popular models from the vast ocean. Look for a higher number of "want to see", and observe the magnitude of the surge in data some time before the release, and you can find clues about the explosion.
7. Attendance rate reflects the popularity of the film and also shows a positive correlation with the box office. The main thing is that due to the different schedules, the horizontal comparison of this set of data will have large deviations. For example, in the Spring Festival, regardless of the reputation of the film, the first day attendance rate can be above 50%, but there will be a significant decline thereafter; For popular movies, the lowest peak attendance rate is 30%+, which reflects the film’s communication properties.
8. The seat row ratio is the result of a comprehensive game that reflects the theater chain in order to maximize its profits. Using a third-party theater as an example, the more the movie sells, the more expensive the ticket price, and the shorter the film length, its seat ratio on the day will also tilt toward the movie, and if the company behind the theater participates in the production of the movie Or publishing work, the situation will become more complicated. From the data analysis of the above figure, all the hot movies, the peak seating ratio of non-Chinese New Year National Day stalls is 40% or higher, and the peak seating ratio of the Spring Festival National Day stalls is at least 20%, which also fully illustrates the For movies, rowing is always an inevitable part.
(two) above
is the analysis of the basic data compiled by this picture, and the advanced data that needs to be considered will be popularized in the later period. In fact, as long as there is such base data, we can easily determine the potential of the explosion. . The general steps are as follows:
1. We can generally see the movie set time in the next two months, and then combine the quality of the director and the actors based on the "want to watch" data, and do the first-level screening to eliminate those that do not have the potential to explode. movie of.
2. Pay attention to the schedule and subject matter of this kind of movie, see which movie is most similar to the above table, observe the surge in the number of "want to watch" and the pre-sale situation, and check the latest internal view of the movie on major websites Film situation, if possible, actively participate in the movie viewing and get first-hand film quality information.
3. Corresponding to a movie with a few screenings, observe its attendance. When the premiere day is approaching, observe the competitor and the percentage of seats on the premiere day, and further refer to the data in the figure above to evaluate the explosion Money potential.
currently only has more than 30 movies in this list, and it will continue to expand to movies with a box office of 1 billion+ in the future, so that you can compare the estimated box office of new movies in more detail, so stay tuned.
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holds the stocks mentioned in the article.
This article only represents the author's point of view, not the position of Xuanbaobao. Views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.
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