market trend morning report
On Tuesday (December 13), the dollar traded around 105; Gold fell as the Federal Reserve may decide to slow down the pace of rate hikes at the end of a two-day policy meeting; oil rose about $2 as investors jittered about supply conditions, with a key pipeline supplying the U.S. still shut , and Russia threatened to cut production, but the easing of the new crown restrictions gave support to the outlook for fuel demand. Brent crude futures settled at $77.99 a barrel, up 2.5%. U.S. crude futures settled at $73.17 a barrel, up 3%. U.S. gold futures fell 1 percent to settle at $1,792.30 an ounce.
Fundamentals analysis
From the analysis of the main factors affecting the market, the following aspects have a great influence on the trend. First, data on Friday showed that U.S. producer prices rose slightly more than expected in November, reinforcing the view that the Fed may have to keep interest rates higher for longer. The focus is now shifting to the U.S. November consumer price index (CPI) report due on Tuesday; U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen predicted on Sunday that U.S. inflation will drop sharply in 2023. Second, consumer inflation data for November will be released on Tuesday and is expected to show that the core price index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 6.1% year-on-year, down from 6.3% in October. "A weaker dollar is a signal that the market is expecting lower inflation and that the market is going to hear (Fed Chairman) Powell say that the Fed is cutting The pace of interest rate hikes, the market is digesting all of this.”
Third, on December 12 local time, the EU foreign ministers’ meeting was held in the Belgium capital Brussels , and Borrell, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy The foreign ministers of the member states stated at the press conference after their arrival that the foreign ministers' meeting will focus on discussing the ninth round of sanctions against Russia proposed by the European Commission. According to the agenda, the meeting of the day started at 13:00 local time and is expected to end around 18:00 pm. After the meeting, the EU will hold a press conference to announce the results of the meeting.
US stocks closing situation , Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 1.58% to 34005.04 points; S&P 500 Index rose 1.43% to 3990.56 points; Nasdaq Index climbed 1.26% to 11143.74 points.
On the whole, tonight’s U.S. inflation data CPI will be one of the key points of the city this week. Although it cannot immediately shake the Fed’s interest rate decision to raise or lower interest rates, it will affect Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks at the press conference after the meeting. Changes in the policy path will also affect the trend of various assets in the market.
Gold technical analysis
pressure: 1788/1795 USD/oz
support: 1777/1767 USD/oz
trading research and judgment: below 1788 USD/oz bearish view of trading
gold prices fell on Monday, investors waited on the sidelines, waiting for US inflation Data and the Federal Reserve's rate hike decision later this week. The short-term gold price trend is neutral and bearish. Below 1788 US dollars / ounce, the trade is considered bearish. Wait for the rebound to wait for an opportunity to intervene in the short position and stand above 1795 US dollars / ounce, and then turn to the bullish view of the transaction.
Silver technical analysis
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pressure: $23.66/oz
support: $23.03/22.64/oz
trading research and judgment: more than $23.03/oz see trading
silver is relatively strong in yesterday’s trend, the rise of the stock index pushes up the price of silver. The short-term trend is neutral and bullish, and the transaction is bullish above $23.03/oz. If it falls below $22.64/oz, it willTurn to a bearish view of the transaction.
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