After the six major state-owned banks lowered their deposit rates, a number of joint-stock banks followed suit. According to incomplete statistics,
brokerage Chinese reporters found that on September 16, CITIC Bank , Everbright Bank , Minsheng Bank , Ping An Bank , Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Guangfa Bank , Huaxia Bank , Heng At least 8 joint-stock banks including HSBC announced to cut deposit rates, demand deposit rates were generally cut by 5 basis points, and various time deposit products were reduced by 10-50 basis points.
According to the official website information, the adjusted one-year time deposit rate of Hengfeng Bank is 1.95%, and the three-year and five-year time deposit rates are both 3.1%, slightly higher than other joint-stock banks; other seven joint-stock banks After the adjustment, the listed deposit interest rates are basically the same. The one-year deposit interest rate is 1.85%, and the three-year and five-year time deposit annual interest rates are 2.65% and 2.7% respectively.
The day before, the six major state-owned banks had taken the lead in lowering the interest rate of time deposits. Among them, three-year time deposits were cut by 15 basis points, and other time deposits were generally cut by 10 basis points. China Merchants Bank also followed up on this action on the same day, and the interest rate of each term is consistent with that of most state-owned banks. The
market expects more banks to join the ranks of cutting deposit rates. The collective reduction of deposit interest rates by many banks this time is seen as a follow-up to the LPR reduction in August. "This is the bank's initiative in order to stabilize the interest margin and reduce the cost of debt. It is different from the reduction in April this year under the guidance of the central bank , and will not directly point to a separate reduction in the LPR in the next two months." Market analysis pointed out. On September 15, the six major state-owned banks announced a reduction in the interest rate of fixed deposits, generally by 10-15 basis points.
After this cut, ICBC , Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China , China Construction Bank, and Bank of Communications have the same deposit rates, three-month, six-month, one-year, two-year, three-year, The five-year time deposit interest rates are 1.25%, 1.45%, 1.65%, 2.15%, 2.60%, and 2.65%, respectively; Postal Savings Bank The half-year and one-year deposit interest rates are slightly higher than those of the other five major banks, respectively 1.46%, 1.68%, and the remaining deposit rates are consistent with the five major banks.
China Merchants Bank also updated the deposit interest rate reduction information on the same day. The one-year, two-year, three-year and five-year fixed deposit interest rates were reduced by 10-15 basis points on the basis of the previous period, and the listed interest rates were 1.65% and 2.15% respectively. , 2.6%, and 2.65%, which are consistent with the aforementioned five major banks.
Subsequently, 8 joint-stock banks including China CITIC Bank, China Everbright Bank, Minsheng Bank, Ping An Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, China Guangfa Bank, Hua Xia Bank, and Hengfeng Bank followed up the next day and lowered the demand deposit interest rate by 5 basis points; The interest rate of time deposits is lowered by 10 basis points; the adjustment range of interest rates of three-year and five-year time deposits is quite different, ranging from 10 to 50 basis points.
According to the bank's official website, the adjusted one-year fixed deposit interest rate of Hengfeng Bank is 1.95%, and the three-year and five-year fixed deposit interest rates are both 3.1%, slightly higher than other joint-stock banks; other seven joint-stock banks demand deposits , one-year, three-year and five-year deposit rates have been agreed, which are 0.25%, 1.85%, 2.65% and 2.7% respectively. Other time deposits, zero deposits and withdrawals, call deposits, , etc. All adjusted.
This is the second time this year that multiple banks have collectively lowered their deposit rates. In April this year, the market interest rate pricing self-discipline mechanism held a meeting to encourage small and medium-sized banks to lower the floating ceiling of deposit interest rates by about 10 basis points (BP). Many banks have received this window guidance , and if it is lowered, the bank's macro prudential assessment (MPA) will have extra points. In the following May, the quotation of LPR with a maturity of more than five years was cut by 15 basis points, and the quotation of LPR with a one-year period remained unchanged.
It is worth noting that the bank's reduction in deposit rates this time may be different from the motivation in April.
"It can be said that this cut is still the result of the interest rate cut in August." The Guotai Junan research report pointed out that the logic of this cut in deposit interest rates is not exactly the same as that in April.The deposit interest rate ceiling was lowered by 10BP under the guidance of the central bank, and this time is closer to the reduction of LPR in August. Faced with the decline in asset-side interest rates, banks took the initiative to conduct deposit-side adjustments based on the new "deposit interest rate market-based adjustment mechanism". Follow-up drop. The team of
believes that this reduction in deposit interest rates is the result. Unlike April, it does not point to a separate reduction in LPR in September and October. "A further reduction may occur at the end of the year or during Q1 next year: First, after the U.S. inflation exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates by 75BP on September 21, and the central bank will lower interest rates again. The quarterly constraints are smaller; second, the continuity of the recovery of economic credit data in August and September remains to be seen, and the recent policy has increased steadily, and the effect still needs to be verified by 1-3 months of data.” Guotai Junan analysis believes.
Responding to the Pressure of Interest Rate Spreads
The market generally believes that the reduction of deposit rates this time is a response by banks under pressure from interest rate spreads. At this year's interim report performance conference, many bank executives also admitted that the downward pressure on the net interest margin of since last year has been relatively large, and the management of deposit costs is an important part of the current bank's work to stabilize the interest rate spread.
"Net interest income is the main source of income for domestic banks, so net interest margin is regarded as a measure of bank profitability." Xue Hongyan, deputy dean of , Xingtu Financial Research Institute, said that since the end of last year, the LPR has been lowered three times in a row. , the market loan interest rate is at a low level, in order to maintain the level of interest margins, the bank has lowered the deposit interest rate several times, and also provides room for supporting the real economy and reducing financing costs. According to
's report, among the six major state-owned banks, except for Bank of China's net interest margin in the first half of the year, which was flat with the same period last year, the net interest margin of the other five major banks decreased by 2-10 basis points respectively.
"The deposits of resident enterprises have been increasing month-on-month for nearly a year in a row. At present, nearly 75% of the liabilities of listed banks are deposits. In the first half of this year, the interest-bearing cost-liability ratio decreased by only 1BP, which is in line with the increase in the scale of deposits this year, and the structure is regularly scheduled. (The proportion of current demand has dropped to 37%).” Guotai Junan Research Report pointed out that after the deposit interest rate cut, banks can obtain lower deposit costs and maintain net interest margins.
On the other hand, this year, resident deposits have obviously migrated to time deposits, which has raised the overall cost of banks to absorb deposits, and the reduction of deposit interest rates will also help stimulate this part of the money to flow again.
Guotai Junan Research Report pointed out that, on the one hand, the reduction of deposit interest rate can promote the “relocation” of deposits, and promote the transformation of generalized liquidity into surplus liquidity, bringing incremental funds to the capital market; It will increase the willingness of resident enterprises to borrow, thereby helping to stabilize credit in the fourth quarter.
The 2022 semi-annual performance reports released by the six major state-owned banks all show that in the first half of this year, the growth rate of personal time deposits in banks is faster than that of personal deposits. Among them, the new personal time deposits of Postal Savings Bank and Bank of Communications in the first half of the year accounted for more than 100% of the total personal deposit increment, that is to say, the new personal time deposits of the two banks rose sharply in the first half of the year. reduced.
Residents' enthusiasm for saving remains high
Although the deposit interest rate has been lowered several times and is now at a low level, residents' enthusiasm for saving remains high.
took large-denomination certificates of deposit as an example. During the year, financial managers of many banks told reporters that every time a new large-denomination certificate of deposit quota came out, "it will be snapped up soon." The second-quarter monetary policy implementation report released by the central bank shows that in the first half of this year, the scale of large deposits issued by financial institutions totaled 7.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.3 trillion yuan over the same period last year.
"Theoretically speaking, after the deposit income declines, residents will have greater motivation to invest in consumption and wealth management." Xue Hongyan pointed out, but judging from the situation this year, the deposit interest rate is falling, while the savings deposits of residents are rising. , which reflects the poor willingness to invest and consume.
According to the survey report on urban savers in the second quarter of 2022 released by the central bank, 58.3% of residents tend to save more, an increase of 3.6 percentage points from the previous quarter and a record high since the third quarter of 2002; Residents with "more investment" accounted for 17.9%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points from the previous quarter.
Xue Hongyan further stated,Due to the repeated uncertainty of the epidemic, residents have a strong demand for hedging, so their risk appetite is low. "In addition, the performance of various wealth management products in the entire wealth management market this year has not been satisfactory, and there are more funds. It is not difficult to understand the risk-free assets such as deposits. Therefore, in the short term, it is not feasible to reduce the deposit interest rate to stimulate household consumption or promote the transfer of deposit funds to wealth management investment.”
Xue Hongyan believes that the most direct impact of the reduction in deposit interest rates will be reflected in the simultaneous decline in the yields of wealth management products linked to deposit products as the underlying assets.
"As of June this year, 15% of the surviving scale of bank wealth management products of 29 trillion yuan has been allocated to cash and deposit products. It is cash management products such as monetary funds." Xue Hongyan said.
