编者按:
马丁·雅克是剑桥大学政治与国际研究系的高级研究员。在接受聚焦中国(China Focus)的独家专访时,马丁·雅克分享了他对一系列有关中国话题的观点。本次专访内容分两期刊登。在第一期里雅克教授谈到了中国过去70年的发展成就、“一带一路”倡议以及世界将如何从中受益等话题。
Editor's Note: Martin Jacques is a senior fellow at the Department of Politics and International Studies, University of Cambridge. In this exclusive interview with China Focus, Martin Jacques shared his views on a number of issues affecting China. The interview is set to be published in two parts. In the first part of the interview, Mr Jacques discusses China's development in the last 70 years, the Belt and Road Initiative and how the world has benefitted from China's development.
聚焦中国:今年是中华人民共和国成立70周年,您认为在过去的七十年里中国最大的变化是什么?世界又是如何从中国的发展中受益的呢?
China Focus: This year marks the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China (PRC). From your own experience, what is the biggest change in China over the past seventy years? How has the world benefited from China's development?
马丁·雅克:我认为中国最大的变化体现在人民生活水平的提高和经济规模的增长。在这样短的时间内取得这样的成就,真的是人类历史上最伟大的巨变。中国人口数量约占世界人口的五分之一。如果中国是一个贫穷的国家,显然无法对全球经济做出多少贡献,也就无法对世界上其他国家有任何贡献。
Martin Jacques: I think the most remarkable change is the transformation in living conditions and the size of the Chinese economy, which is truly remarkable and the most extraordinary change in human history in such a short space of time. China is about a fifth of the world's population. Then if China is very poor, obviously it will contribute very little to the global economy, and therefore the possibilities for other peoples around the world.
马丁·雅克:当中国经济在不断增长,在全球经济中的地位继续上升,中国对世界经济的重要性就发生了变化。从2008年开始,中国就是全球经济增长的最大贡献者。(编者注:2013年中国国家统计局发布的报告指出,2008年至2012年,中国对世界经济增长的年均贡献率超过20%,均超过美国居世界第一)如果中国经济增长放缓或者加快,对世界许多经济体都会有直接影响。
Martin Jacques: But if China grows, just continues to grow its place in the global economy then its importance to the rest of the world economically is transformed. Ever since 2008, China has been the biggest contributor to global economic growth. If China's growth slows down or China's growth increases, it has a direct effect on many economies around the world.
聚焦中国:您如何看待中国参与全球治理?China Focus: How do you view China's participation in global governance?
马丁·雅克:很长一段时间以来,中国都徘徊在全球体系之外。但在1978年中国实施改革开放以后,尤其是2001年中国加入世贸组织后,中国成为了全球化进程的参与者,尽管在这段时期中国相对来说有些被动。当时中国仍在寻找自己的参与方式,把主要的精力都放在了国内发展上。
Martin Jacques: For a long time, China was outside the global system. But after 1978, in the reform period and especially in 2001 when China joined the WTO,China became a participant in the process, though relatively passive. But it was still finding its way, concentrating on domestic development.
马丁·雅克:我觉得转折点出现在2008年全球爆发金融危机期间,当时中国为避免全球经济陷入萧条,实施了一系列经济刺激政策,做出了非常重要的贡献。中国的举措确实挽救了全球经济,避免其陷入更糟糕的境地。
Martin Jacques: I think the turning point was around the time of the global financial crisis in 2008, when China made a really important contribution to ensuring there wasn't a global depression by staging its enormous stimulus program, which actually saved the global economy from something much, much worse.
马丁·雅克:从此以后,我认为中国更加愿意参与全球经济政策协调。也是从那时起,随着 “一带一路”倡议的提出和亚洲基础设施银行的创立,中国已经在这些领域里发挥了真正重要的作用。
Martin Jacques: And from that moment, I think China became more and more interested in the possibility of participating in the policies for the global economy. Ever since then, with the Belt and Road Initiative and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, China has become a really serious player in these areas.
马丁·雅克:过去,美国人曾批评中国没有为世界提供公共产品。现在中国显然已经贡献了大量的公共产品,因为“一带一路”倡议是迄今为止世界上规模最大的发展促进计划。
Martin Jacques: And as you know, it used to be criticized by the Americans for not contributing public goods to the world. Well, now China is clearly contributing at a large scale to public goods, because the Belt and Road Initiative is by far the biggest scheme in the world in terms of helping, in particular, development.
聚焦中国:意大利成为首个加入该倡议的七国集团国家,也是最新加入该倡议的欧盟成员国。其他欧盟国家对此持何态度? 您怎么看英国对“一带一路”倡议的态度?
China Focus: Italy became the first G7 country and the latest EU member to join the Initiative. What is the attitude of other EU countries towards it? How do you think the UK views the Belt and Road Initiative?
马丁·雅克:总体来看,欧洲各国对“一带一路”倡议的反应是不同的。中东欧国家对“一带一路”的态度相当热情,因此就有了中国与中东欧“16+1”机制(编者注:2019年4月12日,希腊作为正式成员加入“16+1合作”。随着希腊的加入,中国与中东欧国家“16+1”合作正式扩展为“17+1”。)现在,欧洲对“一带一路”倡议也变得越来越热情,尤其是希腊、葡萄牙和意大利已经加入其中。在西欧,尤其是像德国、法国和英国这样的经济强国,他们对“一带一路”有些怀疑,不太愿意参与和支持,但也并不反对。
Martin Jacques: Well, I would say that Europe's reaction in general to the Belt and Road Initiative has varied. What you have seen is eastern and central Europe who have been pretty enthusiastic and so you've got sixteen plus one. Europe has steadily become more enthusiastic and three countries in particular are involved—Greece, Portugal, and now Italy. Western Europe, in particular the highlands like Germany, France, and Britain in terms of economic power, they're the biggest. They all are being a bit 'iffy' about Belt and Road, and somewhat reluctant to get involved and endorse it, but not opposing it.
马丁·雅克:英国在某些方面对“一带一路”给予的支持也许是最大的,但在政治上还需要再观望,看看现在的约翰逊政府是否支持“一带一路”倡议。但令人担忧的一点是,约翰逊与特朗普很接近,这可能意味着更加负面一些。
Martin Jacques: Britain in some ways has been perhaps the most supportive, but I think politically, we have to wait and see whether the present government, the Johnson government, is a supporter or not. He is disturbingly close to Trump, and that would suggest maybe it'll be more negative.
(未完待续)
To be continued…
采访、编辑 / 董翎依
审校 / 白石
美编 / 高铭