Financial Associated Press, December 1 (Editor Zhao Hao) U.S. stocks continued to strengthen this week, with the S&P and the Dow closing at record highs. Since the beginning of the year, the S&P 500 Index has risen by more than 26%, but whether it can maintain this increase in the last month, or go further, still needs to examine the health of the U.S. economy.
Looking forward to next week, the most important thing is naturally the fixed column on the first Friday of every month-the non-agricultural report. Looking back at October data, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll employment in the United States was only 12,000, less than one-tenth of the long-term average, but it is unclear how much temporary factors such as hurricanes and strikes accounted for.
Changes in U.S. non-farm payroll employment after seasonal adjustment
Uncertainty about the Fed’s interest rate path has increased in recent months, with some strong data stoking concerns about a rebound in U.S. inflation and if the Fed really “overcuts interest rates.” ” may erode the gains achieved through higher interest rates in controlling prices in the past two years.
Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Research Institute, said that the Federal Reserve is questioning the economy, especially the labor market, and they want to know how much easing policy is needed now. Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at
ameriprise Financial, said that if the non-farm payrolls report exceeds expectations, it may shake people's confidence in the trend in December and cause a bit of selling. "
In addition to non-farm payrolls, the final PMI value of the European and American service industries, as well as job vacancies and initial jobless claims in the United States are also worthy of investors' attention. In the early morning of next Thursday, Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was invited to be interviewed, and the Federal Reserve will also announce the same day Beige Book of Economic Conditions.
Regarding Trump, the U.S. stock market has shown that market expectations for his economic policies have outweighed concerns about potential tariffs. A survey released by the Conference Board on Tuesday showed that 56. 4% of consumers expect stock prices to continue to rise in the next year.
Shortly before publication, Trump said that he had a productive meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau and discussed many important issues that need to be solved by the two countries. . Previously, he also mentioned that Mexican President Shenbaum agreed to prevent immigrants from entering the United States.
However, there are also analysts who are "afraid of heights." Research strategists wrote in a report that a more immediate risk to the stock market rebound than tariffs is that investors are overly optimistic, which "from a contrarian thinking perspective suggests a possible pullback." "
In terms of geopolitics, new risks have emerged in the Middle East. On Saturday local time, Syria the military issued a statement saying that opposition armed forces entered most areas of the northern Syrian city of Aleppo. At the same time, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine The situation also faces the risk of "spiral escalation".
Financial Associated Press, December 1 (Editor Zhao Hao) U.S. stocks continued to strengthen this week, with the S&P and the Dow closing at record highs. Since the beginning of the year, the S&P 500 Index has risen by more than 26%, but whether it can maintain this increase in the last month, or go further, still needs to examine the health of the U.S. economy.
Looking forward to next week, the most important thing is naturally the fixed column on the first Friday of every month-the non-agricultural report. Looking back at October data, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll employment in the United States was only 12,000, less than one-tenth of the long-term average, but it is unclear how much temporary factors such as hurricanes and strikes accounted for.
Changes in U.S. non-farm payroll employment after seasonal adjustment
Uncertainty about the Fed’s interest rate path has increased in recent months, with some strong data stoking concerns about a rebound in U.S. inflation and if the Fed really “overcuts interest rates.” ” may erode the gains achieved through higher interest rates in controlling prices in the past two years.
Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Research Institute, said that the Federal Reserve is questioning the economy, especially the labor market, and they want to know how much easing policy is needed now. Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at
ameriprise Financial, said that if the non-farm payrolls report exceeds expectations, it may shake people's confidence in the trend in December and cause a bit of selling. "
In addition to non-farm payrolls, the final PMI value of the European and American service industries, as well as job vacancies and initial jobless claims in the United States are also worthy of investors' attention. In the early morning of next Thursday, Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was invited to be interviewed, and the Federal Reserve will also announce the same day Beige Book of Economic Conditions.
Regarding Trump, the U.S. stock market has shown that market expectations for his economic policies have outweighed concerns about potential tariffs. A survey released by the Conference Board on Tuesday showed that 56. 4% of consumers expect stock prices to continue to rise in the next year.
Shortly before publication, Trump said that he had a productive meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau and discussed many important issues that need to be solved by the two countries. . Previously, he also mentioned that Mexican President Shenbaum agreed to prevent immigrants from entering the United States.
However, there are also analysts who are "afraid of heights." Research strategists wrote in a report that a more immediate risk to the stock market rebound than tariffs is that investors are overly optimistic, which "from a contrarian thinking perspective suggests a possible pullback." "
In terms of geopolitics, new risks have emerged in the Middle East. On Saturday local time, Syria the military issued a statement saying that opposition armed forces entered most areas of the northern Syrian city of Aleppo. At the same time, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine The situation also faces the risk of "spiral escalation".
Overview of important overseas economic events next week (Beijing time):
Monday (December 2): Eurozone manufacturing PMI final value in November, UK manufacturing PMI final value in November, Eurozone unemployment rate in October, US 11 Month S&P Global final manufacturing PMI, U.S. November ism manufacturing PMI, U.S. construction spending monthly rate in October
Tuesday (December 3): Fed Governor Waller delivered a speech, and New York Fed President Williams attended a meeting held by the Queens Chamber of Commerce A conversation, U.S. October jolts job openings
Wednesday (December 4): Federal Reserve Board of Governors Kugler spoke on the labor market and monetary policy, Australia's third quarter GDP annual rate, the Eurozone's November service industry PMI final value, the UK's November service industry PMI final value, the Eurozone's October PPI monthly rate, the United States' November ADP Employment numbers, European Central Bank President Lagarde’s introductory speech at the hearing of the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, U.S. S&P Global Services in November Industry PMI final value, St. Louis Fed President Musallem's speech, U.S. ism non-manufacturing PMI in November, U.S. factory orders monthly rate in October, U.S. eia crude oil inventory for the week to November 29
Thursday (December 5th): Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was invited for an interview, The Federal Reserve released the Beige Book of economic conditions, the monthly retail sales rate in the Eurozone in October, the number of layoffs at challenger companies in the United States in November, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States in the week to November 30, the U.S. trade balance in October, the U.S. November Global supply chain stress index, the 38th OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting of oil-producing countries was held on Friday (December 6): Richmond Fed Chairman Barkin delivered a speech, Eurozone third quarter GDP annual rate revision, US November seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls , Federal Reserve Board Governor Bowman delivered a speech, US December University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary Value
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