2024 is undoubtedly a crucial year for the United States and Europe. In this year, France completed its parliamentary elections. With the simultaneous rise of left-wing and right-wing forces, the centrist represented by Macron faced new challenges. The dust has settled on the results of the US election and Trump's return to the White House means that new variables will emerge in the world situation. Russia got what it wanted, but rifts may appear between the United States and Europe.
Also, the elite Ukrainian army invaded the Russian mainland, and the Russian army is still fighting fiercely with the Ukrainian army in Kursk. In Russia, Putin won the election and began a new term.
With the simultaneous earthquakes in the political arena of the United States, Russia and France, Germany, whose economic situation is not optimistic, is under tremendous pressure. There are growing signs that time is running out for Scholz.
This means that if the situation does not change and Germany holds an early election, Scholz will likely be replaced by Weidel or Mertz soon.
Regarding the “change in German politics”, there are at least three things worth noting.
The first thing was that Scholz finally compromised. When Germany's ruling coalition collapsed, Scholz fired German Finance Minister Lindner, and Scholz was forced to leave office, Scholz agreed to one thing: he supported advancing the date of the "no-confidence vote", which may be scheduled at December 16th.
By then, once Scholz fails to win a vote of no confidence, German President Steinmeier may announce the dissolution of the Bundestag on December 27. Next, Germany will hold an early election, and there is basically no doubt that Scholz will step down.
Germany is now governed jointly by the Social Democratic Party, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Green Party. Due to various reasons such as the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and severe sanctions between Russia and Europe, Germany has experienced problems such as factory closures, soaring energy prices and rising commodity prices.
Under this circumstance, Scholz's Social Democratic Party quickly became the target of public criticism.
Scholz now faces many challenges. On the one hand, both Lindner's Liberal Democratic Party and Berber's Green Party have differences with the Social Democratic Party. Scholz, who is already constrained by , can be said to be struggling. On the other hand, Germany's far-right forces represented by Weidel and the Christian Democratic Union, the largest opposition party, are also putting pressure on Scholz.
Judging from the poll results, the German people are also quite dissatisfied with Scholz.
In short, Scholz was forced into the palace by a joint effort. Once he failed to win a vote of no confidence, the Christian Democrats, which topped the list in support ratings, and Wedel, who had suddenly emerged as a new force, would take advantage of the situation and seek to replace Scholz. No matter who wins, new variables will emerge in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The second thing is, who can be Scholz’s successor? At present, the following three people are the most promising, namely Alternative Party leader Weidel, German Economy Minister Habeck and Christian Democratic Union leader Mertz. Of course, the one with the best chance of becoming German Chancellor is Mertz.
German poll results show that Merkel and Mertz’s Christian Democratic Union has a support rate of 32%, followed by Weidel’s Alternative Party with a support rate of 18%, and Scholz’s Social Democratic Party with only 16%. support rate, ranking third. Weidel believes that Scholz has long lost the trust of the German people.
It should be noted that there are often certain discrepancies between poll results and election results. The US election is the most typical example.
From this perspective, Although the CDU has an absolute advantage, Mertz cannot open the champagne in advance to celebrate his victory. To take a step back, even if Mertz wins the election, the Christian Democratic Union may not be able to successfully govern Germany, and it is likely that it will need to form a coalition with other political parties.
For Trump, Mertz’s victory is not good news, and this is not a result that Russia is happy to see.
The reason is simple: unlike Merkel and Scholz, Mertz is tougher on Russia. Mertz has sent a signal: If he were in charge of Germany, Germany would ask Russia to end its actions in Ukraine, provide Ukraine with "Taurus" cruise missiles, and allow the Ukrainian army to strike Russian territory.
In response, Russia was furious. Russia believes that Mertz is trying to escalate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine after Trump returns to the White House.
But there is one result that Russia is willing to see, and that is Weidel winning.
Weidel believes that Ukraine should compensate Germany for the "North Stream pipeline bombing" incident, because Ukraine has made Germany pay a heavy price. Weidel once said that Germany's sanctions against Russia "hurt others more than itself", that NATO expansion will harm Russia's interests, and that Ukraine's neutrality is the best option to avoid conflicts.
In Weidel’s view, the EU has already participated in the war. Providing weapons to Ukraine means giving up neutrality. Europe is too dependent on the United States. The result of Germany’s sanctions on Russia is not worth the gain. Weidel also suggested that Germany could leave the EU.
It is not difficult to see that if Weidel wins, Russia will breathe a sigh of relief. Once Germany separates from the EU, it will be easier for the United States to penetrate the EU. Of course, the United States does not want to see Germany leading the European Union against the United States.
As for whether Scholz can win a vote of no confidence and what awaits Germany next, we might as well wait patiently.
The third thing, Scholz began to regret? Scholz, who was jointly forced into the palace, seemed to have discovered something. This time, Scholz intended to seek help from Putin.
Scholz has confirmed that he intends to contact Putin, but he does not intend to have a phone call with Putin without consulting his partners. When asked when he would talk to Putin, Scholz said it would be soon.
However, according to Russia’s statement on the 11th, as of that time, Russia had not received Scholz’s signal.
What Scholz will talk to Putin about, whether to threaten Russia or seek help from Putin, is temporarily unknown.
But what is certain is that Scholz is very restless now. If Merkel is willing to support Scholz, the situation may change.
What is uncertain now is whether Merkel, a member of the Christian Democratic Union, will return to German politics if Germany holds an early election.
In Germany and the EU, Merkel still has an influence that cannot be underestimated, and many German people hope that Merkel can make a comeback.
But Merkel has said many times that she will not return to politics.
Who can lead Germany out of trouble? Whether it is Scholz, Wedel or Merz, it ultimately depends on the choice of the German people.
The storm is coming. It is vaguely visible that new variables are about to emerge in Germany, the EU, and the world.
2024 is undoubtedly a crucial year for the United States and Europe. In this year, France completed its parliamentary elections. With the simultaneous rise of left-wing and right-wing forces, the centrist represented by Macron faced new challenges. The dust has settled on the results of the US election and Trump's return to the White House means that new variables will emerge in the world situation. Russia got what it wanted, but rifts may appear between the United States and Europe.
Also, the elite Ukrainian army invaded the Russian mainland, and the Russian army is still fighting fiercely with the Ukrainian army in Kursk. In Russia, Putin won the election and began a new term.
With the simultaneous earthquakes in the political arena of the United States, Russia and France, Germany, whose economic situation is not optimistic, is under tremendous pressure. There are growing signs that time is running out for Scholz.
This means that if the situation does not change and Germany holds an early election, Scholz will likely be replaced by Weidel or Mertz soon.
Regarding the “change in German politics”, there are at least three things worth noting.
The first thing was that Scholz finally compromised. When Germany's ruling coalition collapsed, Scholz fired German Finance Minister Lindner, and Scholz was forced to leave office, Scholz agreed to one thing: he supported advancing the date of the "no-confidence vote", which may be scheduled at December 16th.
By then, once Scholz fails to win a vote of no confidence, German President Steinmeier may announce the dissolution of the Bundestag on December 27. Next, Germany will hold an early election, and there is basically no doubt that Scholz will step down.
Germany is now governed jointly by the Social Democratic Party, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Green Party. Due to various reasons such as the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and severe sanctions between Russia and Europe, Germany has experienced problems such as factory closures, soaring energy prices and rising commodity prices.
Under this circumstance, Scholz's Social Democratic Party quickly became the target of public criticism.
Scholz now faces many challenges. On the one hand, both Lindner's Liberal Democratic Party and Berber's Green Party have differences with the Social Democratic Party. Scholz, who is already constrained by , can be said to be struggling. On the other hand, Germany's far-right forces represented by Weidel and the Christian Democratic Union, the largest opposition party, are also putting pressure on Scholz.
Judging from the poll results, the German people are also quite dissatisfied with Scholz.
In short, Scholz was forced into the palace by a joint effort. Once he failed to win a vote of no confidence, the Christian Democrats, which topped the list in support ratings, and Wedel, who had suddenly emerged as a new force, would take advantage of the situation and seek to replace Scholz. No matter who wins, new variables will emerge in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The second thing is, who can be Scholz’s successor? At present, the following three people are the most promising, namely Alternative Party leader Weidel, German Economy Minister Habeck and Christian Democratic Union leader Mertz. Of course, the one with the best chance of becoming German Chancellor is Mertz.
German poll results show that Merkel and Mertz’s Christian Democratic Union has a support rate of 32%, followed by Weidel’s Alternative Party with a support rate of 18%, and Scholz’s Social Democratic Party with only 16%. support rate, ranking third. Weidel believes that Scholz has long lost the trust of the German people.
It should be noted that there are often certain discrepancies between poll results and election results. The US election is the most typical example.
From this perspective, Although the CDU has an absolute advantage, Mertz cannot open the champagne in advance to celebrate his victory. To take a step back, even if Mertz wins the election, the Christian Democratic Union may not be able to successfully govern Germany, and it is likely that it will need to form a coalition with other political parties.
For Trump, Mertz’s victory is not good news, and this is not a result that Russia is happy to see.
The reason is simple: unlike Merkel and Scholz, Mertz is tougher on Russia. Mertz has sent a signal: If he were in charge of Germany, Germany would ask Russia to end its actions in Ukraine, provide Ukraine with "Taurus" cruise missiles, and allow the Ukrainian army to strike Russian territory.
In response, Russia was furious. Russia believes that Mertz is trying to escalate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine after Trump returns to the White House.
But there is one result that Russia is willing to see, and that is Weidel winning.
Weidel believes that Ukraine should compensate Germany for the "North Stream pipeline bombing" incident, because Ukraine has made Germany pay a heavy price. Weidel once said that Germany's sanctions against Russia "hurt others more than itself", that NATO expansion will harm Russia's interests, and that Ukraine's neutrality is the best option to avoid conflicts.
In Weidel’s view, the EU has already participated in the war. Providing weapons to Ukraine means giving up neutrality. Europe is too dependent on the United States. The result of Germany’s sanctions on Russia is not worth the gain. Weidel also suggested that Germany could leave the EU.
It is not difficult to see that if Weidel wins, Russia will breathe a sigh of relief. Once Germany separates from the EU, it will be easier for the United States to penetrate the EU. Of course, the United States does not want to see Germany leading the European Union against the United States.
As for whether Scholz can win a vote of no confidence and what awaits Germany next, we might as well wait patiently.
The third thing, Scholz began to regret? Scholz, who was jointly forced into the palace, seemed to have discovered something. This time, Scholz intended to seek help from Putin.
Scholz has confirmed that he intends to contact Putin, but he does not intend to have a phone call with Putin without consulting his partners. When asked when he would talk to Putin, Scholz said it would be soon.
However, according to Russia’s statement on the 11th, as of that time, Russia had not received Scholz’s signal.
What Scholz will talk to Putin about, whether to threaten Russia or seek help from Putin, is temporarily unknown.
But what is certain is that Scholz is very restless now. If Merkel is willing to support Scholz, the situation may change.
What is uncertain now is whether Merkel, a member of the Christian Democratic Union, will return to German politics if Germany holds an early election.
In Germany and the EU, Merkel still has an influence that cannot be underestimated, and many German people hope that Merkel can make a comeback.
But Merkel has said many times that she will not return to politics.
Who can lead Germany out of trouble? Whether it is Scholz, Wedel or Merz, it ultimately depends on the choice of the German people.
The storm is coming. It is vaguely visible that new variables are about to emerge in Germany, the EU, and the world.
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