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The "Civil Affairs Statistics for the Second Quarter of 2024" released on the official website of the Ministry of Civil Affairs on August 2 showed that in the first half of this year, 3.43 million marriages were registered nationwide and 1.274 million divorces were registered. In the first half of 2023, a total of 3.928 million marriages were registered and 1.317 million divorces were registered nationwide. In comparison, the number of marriage registrations in the first half of this year decreased by 498,000 compared with the same period last year, and the number of divorce registrations decreased by 43,000 compared with the same period last year.
Data released by the Guangdong Provincial Department of Civil Affairs shows that in the first half of this year, 276,000 marriages and 96,000 divorces were registered in Guangdong.
data
It is only about half of the same period in 2014
It is worth mentioning that the number of marriage registrations in the first half of this year also hit a new low in recent years, only about half of the 6.94 million couples in the same period of 2014. According to statistics from the Ministry of Civil Affairs, before the decline stopped and rebounded in 2023, the number of marriage registrations nationwide had continued to decline for many years, with 3.732 million couples in the first half of 2022.
According to Jiemian News, demographer He Yafu said that from the perspective of full-year data, the number of registered marriages nationwide in 2013 was 13.469 million, which began to decline year by year in 2014, and then fell below the 10 million mark in 2019. It fell below the 8 million pair mark, dropped to 6.835 million pairs in 2022, fell below the 7 million pair mark, and rose back to 7.68 million pairs in 2023.
After the number of marriage registrations nationwide reached a historical high of 13.469 million couples in 2013, it has shown a downward trend for nine consecutive years. The number of marriage registrations rose to 7.68 million in 2023, ending nine consecutive years of decline. This increase is mainly due to the fact that many couples chose to postpone their weddings during the epidemic from 2020 to 2022, resulting in a wave of compensatory marriages in 2023. However, the decline in the number of marriage registrations in the first half of 2024 shows that the compensation effect after the epidemic has weakened, and the number of marriage registrations is expected to continue to decline throughout the year.
The number of marriages this year may be the lowest since 1980
It is said that Jiemian News reported that from historical data, except for the special reasons of the epidemic in 2020, which caused the number of marriage registrations in the first half of the year to be lower than the second half of the year, the number of marriage registrations in the first half of the past decade has generally been high. in the second half of the year. This phenomenon is related to the influence of traditional festivals such as the Spring Festival, and many people tend to choose to hold weddings during these festivals.
He Yafu analyzed that if calculated according to the rules of previous years, it is estimated that the number of marriage registration couples in 2024 may be about 6.6 million, which will be the lowest since 1980.
Judging from the data in recent years, the number of marriage registrations is usually the highest in the first quarter, which is closely related to the important traditional festival of the Chinese Spring Festival. Data released by the Ministry of Civil Affairs show that the number of marriage registrations nationwide in the first quarter of 2024 was 1.969 million, a decrease of 178,000 from 2.147 million in the same period of 2023, a significant decrease. To a certain extent, this indicates the trend of marriage data throughout the year.
He Yafu analyzed that, except for the impact of the epidemic in 2020, in general, marriage registration in the first half of the year accounted for 51%-54% of the whole year, and marriage registration in the second half of the year accounted for 46%-49% of the whole year. If the number of marriage registration couples in the second half of 2024 accounts for about 48% of the whole year, that is, about 3.17 million couples, then the number of marriage registration couples in the whole year of 2024 is expected to be about: 3.43 million + 3.17 million = 6.6 million couples. This data is even less than in 2022, setting a record since 1980.
Reasons
Gender imbalance in the marriageable population and reduction in the young population
He Yafu believes that there are many reasons for the decline in marriage registrations, including a decrease in the number of young people, an imbalance in the gender ratio of the marriageable population, a delayed age at first marriage, high marriage costs, and changes in the concept of marriage. wait.
Data from the Seventh Census shows that China’s surviving population of those born in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s are 215 million, 178 million, and 155 million respectively, and the number of young people has dropped significantly.
Secondly, there is an imbalance in the gender ratio of the marriageable population. There are 17.52 million more men aged 20-40 than women. These structural problems will, to a large extent, determine the development of China’s future population situation.
The delayed age of first marriage is also an important reason. According to census data, the average age at first marriage in China in 2010 was 25.75 years old for men and 24 years old for women; in 2020, the average age at first marriage for men rose to 29.38 years old and for women to 27.95 years old.This change reflects increased investment by young people in education, career development and personal growth. As higher education becomes more popular and career competition intensifies, young people are more inclined to complete their studies and establish a stable career foundation before getting married. In addition, changes in modern lifestyles and consumption concepts also make young people more willing to enjoy single life and postpone the decision to get married.
According to Jiemian News, since 1990, the trend of postponing first marriage among the Chinese population has become increasingly obvious, and the average age at first marriage for both men and women has continued to increase. What are the main reasons for delaying marriage and childbirth? A paper published in "Population Research" by Zhang Xianling, associate professor at the School of Social Sciences and Psychology at the Central University of Finance and Economics, and Sheng Yinan, a professor at the School of Labor Economics at the Capital University of Economics and Business, used the national censuses from 1990 to 2020 , the National 1% Population Sample Survey and the National 1‰ Population Change Sample Survey and other data, and introduced the dimensions of urban and rural areas, gender and education level to segment the population, revealing many "truths" behind the phenomenon of delayed marriage and childbirth.
The paper states that by comparing the unmarried proportion curves of people with different educational levels in 1990 and 2020, some regular characteristics can be found: First, in most ages, increasing education will significantly delay people’s first marriage, which is manifested as unmarried The proportion curve increases with education level; secondly, the unmarried proportion curves of people with primary school education and below and junior high school education are very close, while the difference between those with higher education and other groups is larger. It can be seen that the impact of higher education on the delay of first marriage It is very significant; thirdly, in the age group of 32 and above, the proportion of unmarried people with primary school education and below is higher than that of other groups, which means that from a lifelong perspective, people with primary school education and below are in the most disadvantaged position in the first marriage market.
In addition, the research also shows a new trend in the impact of education on the delay of first marriage. Compared with 1990, the disadvantage of low-educated people in the first marriage market has intensified in 2020, which means that the impact of education on the delay of first marriage for some people is expanding. .
He Yafu said that in the face of the current situation of declining young population and low desire to have children, the implementation of strong fertility support policies in the future will be one of the key measures to deal with the decline in the birth population.
service
Marriage registration offices are open today and registration is available in Guangzhou and other places
August 10th is the Chinese traditional festival Qixi Festival, but it falls on a Saturday. Marriage registration offices in many places have made it clear that they will work normally on this Saturday to register marriages for newlyweds. .
The reporter learned from the Civil Affairs Bureau of Guangzhou and other places that on August 10, the marriage registration offices in Guangzhou, Shaoguan, Maoming and other places will carry out marriage registration business normally.
Practitioners of marriage registration and marriage and family counseling services said that newlyweds need to bring good documents when registering a marriage. At the same time, "as long as the relationship is good, every day is a good day." Newlyweds who are entering a new stage of life can also view marriage registration rationally. "Good days", and make reservations based on your own actual peak times to avoid "crowded registration".
Starting from June 1, 2023, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Chongqing, Sichuan, Shaanxi, A total of 21 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in Ningxia have implemented the pilot program of "inter-provincial universal registration of marriage and divorce registration" for mainland residents. Marriage registration authorities in the newly included pilot areas will uniformly accept "inter-provincial services" for marriage registration. After the expansion of the pilot, the 21 provinces will cover 78.5% of my country's total population, which can basically meet the people's needs for marriage registration in different places.
Marriage registration appointment method:
1. Guangdong Province Marriage Registration Online Appointment System
2. "Guangdong Civil Affairs" public account
3. "Guangdong Province Affairs" mini program
Integration: Yi Fuhong
Source: Daily Economic News Southern Daily Interface News Guangdong Provincial Department of Civil Affairs website Ministry of Civil Affairs website etc.
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