China Fund News reporters Fang Li and Lu Huijing With the disclosure of the 2023 quarterly reports of public funds, the investment trends of fund managers amid market adjustments have been exposed one by one. On January 19, the fourth quarter reports of last year’s fund managers

China Fund News reporters Fang Li and Lu Huijing

With the disclosure of the 2023 quarterly reports of public funds, the investment trends of fund managers amid market adjustments have been exposed one by one.

Specifically, compared with the end of the third quarter of last year, the top ten heavy holdings of the fund managed by Zhang Kun have not changed much overall. Liquor leaders such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Yanghe Shares, and Luzhou Laojiao are still among his top ten holdings. List. In terms of Hong Kong stock investment, Zhang Kun increased his positions in Alibaba, WuXi Biologics, etc.; in terms of US stocks, Chaowei Semiconductor appeared among its top ten holdings for the first time.

Zhang Kun bluntly said that the current market pricing of these high-quality companies is similar to a "convertible bond", and investors receive growth options while receiving coupon returns. From various valuation dimensions, the low valuations of a number of high-quality companies have reflected quite pessimistic expectations. "Currently, investing in high-quality companies no longer requires 'expecting great results,' but just 'believing in ordinary results.'"

Maintain style and determination

Continue to operate at high positions

Although the market is quite volatile in the fourth quarter of 2023, Zhang Kun continues to maintain high position operations, which is also his "normal" position allocation in the past two or three years.

Judging from the table compiled by a reporter from China Fund News, Zhang Kun maintained a similar position level at the end of the fourth quarter last year as at the end of the third quarter. The positions of the four funds he managed at the end of the fourth quarter last year were all above 94%.

Zhang Kun has always maintained a certain proportion of Hong Kong stock positions. At the end of the fourth quarter of last year, his four funds basically maintained Hong Kong stock positions between 41% and 65%. E Fund Asia Select has a more diversified layout. At the end of the fourth quarter of last year, the fund held 61% of Hong Kong stocks and 33.52% of U.S. stocks.

Added positions to Alibaba and WuXi Biologics

AMD Semiconductor appears in the top ten stocks for the first time

Judging from the top ten stocks disclosed in the Four Seasons Report, Zhang Kun still holds an outstanding business model, clear industry structure, and strong competitiveness quality company.

In terms of A shares, liquor leaders such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Yanghe Shares, and Luzhou Laojiao are still among his top ten holdings; in terms of Hong Kong stock holdings, many of his funds increased their holdings in Alibaba and reduced their holdings in Tencent in the fourth quarter. Holdings and Meituan; in terms of U.S. stocks, advanced micro devices inc (Chaowei Semiconductor) has newly entered the top ten holdings of funds under its management, and at the same time reduced its holdings in TSMC.

Looking at the specific fund holdings, the top ten holdings of E Fund Blue Chip Select under his management remain stable. Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Yanghe Shares, Luzhou Laojiao, and Tencent Holdings continue to be among the top five holdings, or due to the impact of Affected by the shrinking scale, some stocks may be passively sold due to excess shareholding limit. Judging from the changes in shareholdings in the fourth quarter, Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, China Merchants Bank, etc. have all been sold to varying degrees. WuXi Biologics, which fell by more than 35% in the fourth quarter, received a large increase in holdings.

The top five holdings of E Fund Premium Select Fund are Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Yanghe Shares, Tencent Holdings, and Luzhou Laojiao. The most eye-catching thing is that E Fund Premium Select has increased its holdings in Alibaba, the Hong Kong Internet leader, by more than 7 percentage points month-on-month, while Tencent Holdings, another leading Internet stock, has been reduced by more than 6 percentage points.

The E Fund Asia Select Fund managed by Zhang Kun invested 61% of its positions in the Hong Kong stock market and 33.52% of its positions in the US stock market.

In terms of Hong Kong stocks, similar to other funds he manages, E Fund Asia Select increased its holdings in Alibaba and Huazhu Group and reduced its holdings in Tencent Holdings in the fourth quarter.

In terms of US stocks, advanced micro devices inc (Chaowei Semiconductor) has recently entered the top ten stocks of E Fund Asia Select. In the fourth quarter of last year, AMD Semiconductor’s share price rose by more than 43%. In contrast, TSMC was reduced by Zhang Kun.

The total scale of management reached 65.4 billion yuan at the end of last year

As A-shares have continued to fluctuate in the past three years, the scale of Zhang Kun’s managed funds has continued to shrink, and the fourth quarter of 2023 is no exception.Data shows that at the end of the fourth quarter, the scale of his management shrank by tens of billions, and the overall scale still reached 65.474 billion. According to current incomplete statistics, Zhang Kun should still be the active equity fund manager with the largest public offering management scale at the end of last year.

Specifically, at the end of the fourth quarter of last year, the scale of E Fund Blue Chip Select, E Fund Premium Select, E Fund Advantage Enterprise Three Years, and E Fund Asia Select Stock were 41.738 billion yuan, 14.627 billion yuan, 4.911 billion yuan, and 4.198 billion yuan respectively. , compared with the end of the third quarter of last year, there were varying degrees of shrinkage, with a total shrinkage of 10.881 billion yuan.

The market's pricing of high-quality companies

is similar to a "convertible bond"

Zhang Kun said in the quarterly report that after the decline in the fourth quarter, the shareholder returns (dividends + repurchases and write-offs) of some high-quality companies in the portfolio have approached or exceeded There are some companies with high dividends in the traditional sense, which to a certain extent implies that the market may no longer recognize the long-term growth of these companies, and even expects some companies to become "value traps."

However, we believe that the barriers to competition for these companies are still strong. As long as people's living standards can rise year by year and China can successfully become a moderately developed country, then these companies will still have long-term growth potential.

As a result, the current market pricing of these high-quality companies is similar to a "convertible bond". Investors receive growth options while receiving coupon returns. In addition, from the perspective of free cash flow return, the overall free cash flow return (free cash flow/market value) of the portfolio is almost at an all-time high. Therefore, from various valuation dimensions, the low valuations of a number of high-quality companies have reflected quite pessimistic expectations.

Looking back on the past few years, investors mostly need to pay a certain valuation premium when buying high-quality companies with high capital returns. The implicit assumption is that the long-term growth of these high-quality companies is often more certain, and their valuation premium will be in Amortized over the entire investment cycle, thereby diluting the return on investment in high-quality companies to a level similar to that of ordinary companies. For investors in such companies, they generally believe that high-quality companies have a longer growth period before returning to sustainable low growth, and long-term investors tend to have longer periods of amortization than short-term investors because of the longer period of amortization of their valuation premiums. Investors are more inclined to pay a valuation premium.

Zhang Kun said that the current situation is that we find that high-quality companies in many countries around the world still maintain a higher valuation premium than ordinary companies, but the valuation premium of domestic high-quality companies has converged to a very low level, even for some The company has completely disappeared. Investors have gone from believing in the medium- to long-term high-certainty growth of high-quality companies to almost no longer believing in it, and even have expectations that the pricing of some companies reflects "value traps." We believe that many factors deserve careful consideration in the long term, but at this time investing in high-quality companies no longer requires "expecting great results", but just "believing in ordinary results".

Editor: Xiaomo

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