wrote an article about the issuance of consumer coupons for all. The situation at that time was only a weak stock market and sluggish consumption, but other economic indicators were still normal, so many netizens felt that issuing consumer coupons to all people was a dream.
But this time the epidemic began in March, especially the two-month comprehensive lockdown in Shanghai, and Beijing and other regions are also experiencing partial lockdowns. If wants to say that the economy has no major impact, he is talking nonsense. Objectively speaking, this wave of epidemics has caused great harm to the economy. The overall GDP growth rate in the second quarter may fall below 3%, or even lower. What is even more frightening is that once the economy stalls, the inertia is huge, and it may take 2-4 quarters to recover before being pulled back to the original track.
The annual GDP growth target for 2022 is 5.5%, and the announced first-quarter growth rate is 4.8%. Let's say it's 3% in the second quarter. Then the third and fourth quarters must reach a sprint growth rate of more than 7.1% in order to bring the annual level back to the 5.5% line. If the growth rate exceeds 7%, it will go back to 2015. But the total annual GDP in 2015 was 68.89 trillion yuan, and the annual GDP in 2021 was 114.367 trillion yuan, an increase of 66%. One can imagine the difficulty of achieving a growth rate of more than 7% on the huge basis of more than 110 trillion! If doesn't have some unexpected economic means, it is highly probable that the annual economic target will not be achieved.
In this context, it is not so aimless to talk about the issuance of consumer coupons to all people. And many economists have repeatedly mentioned the possibility of issuing consumer vouchers, or even directly issuing cash.
As long as the coupons issued are real coupons, they can be used as cash, without any tricks or restrictions, this is an extremely effective economic stimulus!
As for the fallacy that distributing money to the whole people is equivalent to not paying, don’t bother with it, it’s nonsense without economic common sense. If it is established, does it mean that the whole people owe money, which means they have no money? Buying a car for the whole people is equivalent to not buying a car? All the people are hungry, does it mean that they are not hungry?
Back to the topic itself, the conclusion drawn at the time and the biggest worry was: large-scale issuance of consumer vouchers (or direct discovery of gold), the biggest side effect is to cause huge inflation . Therefore,
also analyzed the inflation problem caused by the large-scale issuance of consumer coupons in the United States at that time. The data at that time seems to be too optimistic now. At that time, it was said that the inflation rate in the United States was between 7-8%, but the fact is that the current inflation rate in the United States has directly reached above 8.5%, and it is not impossible to even break 9% in the next few months. Because the United States has done something to shoot itself in the foot. Everyone was frightened by Russia's foreign exchange being frozen, which caused the global reservoir capacity of the dollar to become smaller. Everyone de-dollarization. The released dollar flow further weakened the purchasing power of the dollar, further deteriorating domestic inflation in the United States. Take it upon yourself!
is excerpted from the author's previous article
Back to ourselves, I made a hypothesis at that time. We issue 1,000 yuan consumption coupons to everyone in the country (regardless of men, women, old and young) every month for one year in a row. This means that each person has an extra income of 12,000 yuan per year, which can be used for consumption. The total amount of these consumer coupons is 16.8 trillion yuan, corresponding to my country's GDP of about 110 trillion yuan in 2021, so this ratio is: 15%. The conclusion of
combined with the derivation: the ratio of over-issued currency to the country's annual GDP is almost the upper limit of the percentage of CPI inflation. If a country's ability to export inflation is stronger, the gap between CPI and the percentage of excess inflation will be larger. Compared with the United States, when China’s ability to export inflation is relatively weak, an excess of 15% of the base currency may bring about 10-12% inflation.
So at that time, I thought that the upper echelon would not use such a radical method to stimulate the economy, because there would be great inflation, which would lead toA series of new social and economic problems emerged. But from time to time, judging from today's reality, when some conventional stimulus methods lose their due boosting effect, it is not ruled out that special means will be used - that is, direct issuance of coupons (or money). is simple and rude, quick effect !
If consumer coupons or money are really issued, how can inflation be controlled to an acceptable range?
The author believes that the key is two points: the total amount of
- should not be too large, and it is best controlled within the range of 5-8% of the annual GDP.
- It is best to replace part of the government's direct investment with direct issuance of consumer vouchers (or money) on the premise of controlling the annual growth rate of M2, then inflation will be more effectively controlled.
In the past, when the economy needed to be boosted, we often adopted the method of increasing infrastructure investment to "release water". In the project, earn your own income to stimulate the economy. The original 4 trillion plan is a typical example of government investment in infrastructure. Combining what I said above, means that this time, don’t give all the large-scale money to those infrastructure projects, but divide part of the money and send it directly to the 1.4 billion people, making the model of “earning the difference without middlemen” , to reduce the problem of diminishing marginal return on investment. There is also a red line to be followed, which is to keep the growth rate of M2 (broad money supply) from increasing significantly, and still control it within the range of 9%-10%, and try not to break through the upper limit of 10%. In this way, sending money will not cause huge inflation! How to post
?
A radical plan (quick results, but there may be huge production capacity pressure on the initial commodity supply side): Take out 8.4 trillion and distribute it in 12 months. 500 yuan per person per month. Each family of three can get 1,500 yuan a month for shopping!
A more moderate plan (relatively soft, lengthening the revenue cycle of industry chain ): take out 8.4 trillion, and distribute it in 18 or 24 months. In one and a half or two years, each person can receive a total of 6,000 yuan in subsidies.
Some experts said that it is not allowed to distribute, or not to distribute to all people, but to identify the gap between the rich and the poor to differentiate the distribution. In fact, this is standing and talking without back pain, creating new troubles!
How to fairly identify the real income of each household?
How to scientifically define the standards of poverty and wealth?
How to prevent possible illegal operations? Aren't all kinds of show operations found in the epidemic still rare?
Among the 100 people, the poor in the top 50 will be paid, and the bottom 50 will not be given. Then the slight gap between the 50th and 51st place will result in the 51st place not getting a penny. Do you think it is fair? Is it creating new internal conflicts? If you want to send
, you can send it indiscriminately! Regardless of gender, gender, age, region or province, there are 1.4 billion people in the mainland, and everyone has a share. An ID card corresponds to a bank account, which is automatically issued by the robot every month, without the need for any individual to participate, to select qualifications, and to help collect. As for whether rich people need this money? Don't worry about it, everyone is a citizen, paying taxes is an obligation, so receiving money is a right, as for whether people are rare or not, that is someone else's business!
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