I am Lao Xu.
The economic pressure of residents is getting bigger and bigger.
Recently, there are two data that are particularly worrying. One is that the savings of residents in my country have increased by 7.82 trillion, and the other is that the growth rate of social consumption has dropped to 3.9%.
predicts that this figure will further expand in April.
This also means that people's desire to consume has further declined, and people can save some money.
Putting it into reality, I observed an interesting phenomenon, Liu Genghong ’s popularity in Douyin live dance exercises contrasts with Li Jiaqi’s indifference in live broadcasts.
More and more people are keen on this kind of project that does not cost money.
The fundamentals are also very simple. In the third year of the epidemic, as the lagging chain effect became prominent, everyone began to feel the economic downturn.
has no money, which has become a common dilemma for everyone.
On the other side, the news of the Hong Kong government distributing money hit the mainland social platforms.
The Hong Kong government issued a total of three batches of money this time, including subsidies for specific groups of people who face high exposure risks in their daily work, such as cleaning staff, 2,000 per person per month for 5 months; and 10,000 Hong Kong dollars worth of consumption for ordinary citizens coupons; through the employer to the employee is another sum. After
after the money was distributed, Hong Kong has indeed emerged from the predicament of the epidemic. On the day when the unblocking was announced, the entire Hong Kong was crowded with people.
Compared with the two, the voices calling for money distribution to mainland residents are also getting louder, and even many articles are titled "If you don't send money, it will be too late".
So, have we reached the point where we have to send money? Does the government really pay? Does it make sense to send money?
Today, I want to talk about this topic with you.
1, everyone really has no money.
During the three years of the epidemic, Lao Xu’s biggest feeling is that the gap between rich and poor has widened further.
Take my place in Guangzhou as an example, the sky-high price of luxury houses keeps setting new highs, and a set of new properties costing tens of millions is so sought-after that you need full payment to have a chance to grab it.
On the other hand, the suburban areas and even just-needed housing are basically at a stagnation stage, and the epidemic has affected the income of many people.
Not daring to go into debt has become the keynote of ordinary people.
It's getting harder and harder to make money.
Many friends around Lao Xu started businesses, almost all of them were devastated. One friend, the company started with hundreds of people after the epidemic, but after three years of tossing, it has been reduced to less than 10 people.
is almost teetering on the brink of bankruptcy.
asked him if he had any thoughts on gambling again, and the answer he got was that he was afraid. In the past three years, he had almost lost all the money he earned in the previous years.
It is not easy to start a business, and so is employment.
A few days ago, I saw a post in which a girl said that she could not find a job after interviewing with 22 companies for half a year.
The most popular comments in the comment area are, "There are only 22 companies." Many people said that they have interviewed more and longer, but they still haven't found a job.
The situation is more difficult than ever.
Like the emergence of postgraduate entrance examinations, the essence is that the public's mentality of seeking stability has the upper hand.
Seeking stability is another aspect of employment difficulties.
This does not include some tourism and catering industries that have been hit hard by the epidemic, almost surviving in the cracks, like the restaurant downstairs of our company, which has almost changed a round in the past three years.
has a glimpse of the leopard, how can other places be better? Are there really that many people unaffected?
Of course, none of the above appear in the official statistics.
2, can sending money change all this?
First of all, we need to make it clear that the purpose of distributing money is not to increase the deposits of residents. This kind of disbursement of money is meaningless.
In economics, the definition of troika driving economic development is: investment, consumption and export.
Among them, consumption is the leader.
So we will see that Hong Kong also uses cash coupons instead of directly sending money into the accounts of Hong Kong people.
There is indeed a country in the world that survived the epidemic by sending money to its residents, and that is the United States.
But this is not reproducible.
Because Laomei is thick-skinned enough, he prints money to Americans by getting the whole world to pay, and the hegemony of the US dollar determines that he has the strength to dare to be so thick-skinned.
Even so, the domestic inflation in old America is already worryingly high, why the Federal Reserve keeps raising interest rates , in essence, the inflationary pressure is too great.
Otherwise, why would they raise interest rates for no reason at the risk of US stock market crashing.
China can certainly follow suit.
We can also print a large amount of RMB to distribute money to everyone, so that residents can survive the epidemic safely.
The picture is very beautiful, but the actual operation may be a bit difficult.
For example, even though we don’t print money now, because the economy is affected, the RMB has depreciated wildly in the past few days, plummeting more than 2,000 points.
foreign exchange pressure, increasing.
There are other factors, as I said at the beginning, the Chinese love saving too much, and the economy is not doing well, but the deposits increase. This is also the biggest characteristic of the Chinese people.
Sending money directly will basically not flow into the market in the end, but will only enter the bank.
The final effect of distributing money is equivalent to not distributing money, but accelerating the depreciation of the currency, which may cause more serious disasters than the epidemic.
Even, it will widen the gap between rich and poor.
The reason why rich people are rich is not because they hold large cash flow , but assets.
After the money is distributed, even if most of the money is consumed, it will eventually be earned by wealthy capitalists, which will cause house prices and commodity prices to continue to rise.Production is also increasing in value.
This will lead to a bipolar reversal where the rich get richer and the poor get richer.
In general, we must realize that China is a developing country with a population of 1.4 billion, and the status of the RMB is not comparable to that of the U.S. dollar for the time being.
Sending money may not necessarily solve the current problem.
3. The country is working hard, but the effect is...
Seeing this, you may find it so difficult. Didn’t the people in the national think tank think of a way?
Actually, there are.
The most news I have seen these days is that has lowered the standard to , and not once or twice.
literally means to take out a little more reserves of the central bank , and then let more people borrow money by cutting interest rates , and use this monetary policy to stimulate the economy.
But the reality is that the economy is not doing well, how can companies dare to borrow money?
So, it turned into revitalizing the "business loan" and running to the property market. I have received many calls these days, asking me if I want a loan, and the interest is basically lower than that of a mortgage. When
asked, it was all business loans.
Ask again, many people have already used this to go to the property market and continue a new round of property speculation.
It seems that our economy can only rely on real estate forever.
was speechless and helpless.
Judging from the continuous loosening of property market policies in various places recently, this "night pot economy" should be restarted again, but most young people are pitiful, and it will be more and more difficult for them to buy a house in the future.
It is indeed more important to get through now.
I can only hope that localities can be a little more restrained. There is really nothing to do in special times, but we can't over-consume the future.
4. If you don’t send money, you can’t do without any measures.
Since it’s not very feasible to find gold with real money, how about gold coupons like Hong Kong?
Technically, we have mature e-commerce platforms like Pinduoduo, Taobao, JD.com, and .
Even in remote rural areas, we have direct logistics, and resident cadres guide villagers to realize consumption. In terms of
inflation, this is much smaller than the consequences of sending money.
It seems that this is not a fantasy.
In fact, there are cities already testing it.
Recently, there has been an epidemic in Beijing, so Chaoyang District has issued a policy that all service enterprises in the jurisdiction will be given money if they are affected by the epidemic.
Each employee is 100 yuan per day, subsidized for 21 days; the company directly loses money, up to 100,000 yuan.
Shenzhen has also introduced relevant policies before, but in recent days it has continued to introduce important measures, and will issue 500 million yuan of consumption vouchers to Shenzhen consumers successively through Meituan and JD platforms from now on.
z9The z method is more of a full reduction. I don’t know how effective
is, but in Shenzhen, a first-tier city with strong consumption power, it still works.
As far as Xu knows, during the period of "city closure" a while ago, many people living in urban villages with low incomes received direct cash subsidies from the Shenzhen government.
There is not much money, but mainly there is.
These are the tests of Beijing and Shenzhen under the epidemic situation. It is better to use real estate to promote it than to start. I think this is what most people want to see.
similar attempt, will it expand? I do not know.
But what Lao Xu thinks is that the official level will indeed continue to explore similar measures.
During the three years of the epidemic, most people are already miserable, and the consequences of directly sending money are too serious, but other measures should be taken to keep up.
The money you can spend is more realistic than any slogan.
It doesn’t matter whether it’s cash, coupons or other methods. The important thing is that there are measures to let everyone see hope.
The Chinese people have always worked hard and don’t like to ask for money from the country. However, there are too many people in difficulties at the moment of the epidemic. What everyone needs most is not a slogan, nor is it what experts say that you can rent out your own house and start a Didi after get off work. It is a real stimulus to boost confidence.
It is often said in the stock market that "confidence is more precious than gold." Isn't it true for the economy?
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