1. The U.S. dollar has no choice but to fall, and the renminbi has risen. Has the U.S. dollar’s “sweeping wool” completely failed?
U.S. dollar, as the world currency, has brought huge wealth to the United States; The reason why the Federal Reserve dares to print U.S. dollars in a large scale is because the U.S. dollar is the world currency. Measures such as and quantitative easing squeeze the wool of the world.
The U.S. dollar is the world’s currency. In order to get the U.S. dollar, countries must sell their hard-working products to the United States, and Americans pay for goods from various countries in U.S. dollars. But it’s really easy for the US to get dollars. As long as Congress raises the debt ceiling , the Federal Reserve can print dollars, and the US Treasury can get dollars by signing.
Everyone knows that since the birth of banknotes, depreciation is absolute, while appreciation is only relative (the so-called appreciation is a question of how much or how little each banknote depreciates); If the dollar depreciates by 10%, then the United States will get 10 trillion.
Therefore, although the U.S. national debt exceeds 31.4 trillion, the U.S. Treasury Department is not worried at all, because as long as the U.S. dollar is the world currency and countries still hold U.S. dollars, then global wealth can be looted through the U.S. dollar, the Treasury Department What needs to be done is to use reasonable and legal methods to balance the accounts. For them, the dollar is just a numbers game.
The United States wants to loot global wealth through the US dollar. The key to is that all countries in the world recognize the status of the US dollar as the world currency and hold US dollars, US debt, etc.; of investors hold large amounts of U.S. dollars and exchange them for U.S. dollars in other currencies.
The reason is very simple. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate for one year is 4.25--4.5%. Taking the Japanese yen as an example, the interest rate range of the Japanese yen is plus or minus 0.5%. If you enter the bank and do nothing, you can get the high interest rate of the US dollar. This is also the fundamental reason why the US dollar index rose after the US dollar raised interest rates sharply.
However, after the U.S. dollar raised interest rates in September 2022 and reached 114.8, it began to turn downwards, while major global currencies such as the RMB, the euro, and the Japanese yen rose sharply against the U.S. dollar. No downtrend, is the strong dollar over? Has the US dollar failed to pull the wool of the world completely?
The U.S. dollar index fell from a high of 114.8 to 104.3, a drop of nearly 10%. This range is undoubtedly very large in the exchange rate market. To find out whether the strong U.S. dollar is over, must understand the reason for the decline of the U.S. dollar index.
A country’s currency appreciates, the general logic is that the country’s economy is very strong, but the dollar index is strengthening, is not the US economy is good, on the contrary, the US economy is very bad, hyperinflation (CPI data has reached the highest in 40 years 9.1%); the strong dollar is entirely caused by the Fed rate hike .
As the huge U.S. national debt has risen wildly to 31.4 trillion U.S. dollars, the U.S. finances are completely unable to repay (the U.S. fiscal deficit will be 2.8 trillion U.S. dollars in 2021), has to issue new debts to repay the old debts, and use debts to support debts; and the U.S. dollar Crazy interest rate hikes also made the World Bank predict that the U.S. economy will experience a recession in 2023; this is the fundamental reason why the U.S. dollar index has no choice but to turn down when the Fed’s interest rate hike cycle is still in progress. Therefore, the strong U.S. dollar is undoubtedly over.
If the U.S. dollar index continues to fall, which means that the U.S. dollar continues to depreciate, it will undoubtedly seriously damage the reputation of the U.S. dollar as a world currency. Investors around the world will undoubtedly sell the U.S. dollar, and the status of the U.S. dollar as a world currency will end.
The U.S. dollar turned around and fell, and global arbitrage funds are unprofitable, naturallyThey will sell U.S. dollars, because buying U.S. dollars and depositing them in the bank can earn high U.S. interest rates, but if the U.S. dollar continues to fall, When the benefits of high interest rates are less than the depreciation of the U.S. dollar exchange rate, global investors will naturally abandon the U.S. dollar. This is the so-called market law.
Therefore, when the U.S. dollar continues to fall, investors who hold U.S. dollars around the world will naturally sell U.S. dollars sharply. , The excessive issuance of US dollars will inevitably backfire on the United States itself, and the US economy will inevitably collapse.
Of course, the U.S. dollar index fell from 114.8 to 104.4, which does not belong to the U.S. dollar crisis . Global investors still hold a large number of U.S. dollars and U.S. debt, which means that the U.S. can still use the U.S. dollar to grab the wool of the world! It's not a complete failure, it's just that it's less.
If the dollar index falls below 86, then it can be said that the dollar crisis is imminent, this is an important technical support level; if the dollar index falls below 78, then it can be said that the dollar is gone. The dollar will lose its status as a world currency.
Although there is no imminent crisis for the dollar, due to the bad inflation in the United States (CPI in November was as high as 7.1), huge national debt and expectations of economic recession, countries central banks have begun to sell dollars in a trend, including the United States Allies Japan, Australia, the United Kingdom, Canada and other countries.
The rise of the renminbi is related to the sharp drop in the U.S. dollar index, but the general trend of the renminbi against the dollar is to rise because the Chinese economy is the driving force of global economic growth , and its contribution to global economic growth exceeds that of G7 countries (the United States , Japan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy and Canada); The long-term appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar is essentially the result of the sustained and stable growth of the Chinese economy!
二、美元指数、道琼斯指数、纳斯达克指数趋势分析
美元指数趋势属于高位下跌震荡阶段，冲高到114.8后，震荡下跌，美元指数跌到104.18区域震荡；美国11 The monthly CPI data is still as high as 7.1%. After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates 7 times, there is a high chance that the US economy will enter a recession.
The Dow Jones index fluctuated, the Nasdaq index, the S&P 500 index rose slightly at the same time; the minor trend was a shock and fell ; the major trend fell relay did not change.
U.S. stocks leaders Tesla , Apple fell slightly simultaneously, Amazon rose slightly; the trend of the three leaders is weaker than that of the U.S. stocks the broader market index, which means that the market continues to fluctuate and fall, and the certainty is very high.
三、上证指数、创业板指数趋势分析，北上资金数据
A股创业板指数，上证指数、深证成指和科创板指数，趋势都属于震荡下跌小趋势， In the shock adjustment stage, the daily line belongs to the stage of changing market ; Northbound funds have no data because Hong Kong stocks are closed and is closed.
SSEThe index fell slightly, the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext, and the Science and Technology Innovation Board rose simultaneously, and the trading volume of increased moderately; that is, the four major indexes of have a high chance of changing from shocks to shocks.
new energy vehicles leader Ningde era , BYD rise simultaneously, the chances of ending the volatile market are great; !
4. Summary of Wenqutang stock market trading experience
The market was born in despair and rose in hesitation! Moreover, the market seldom goes straight, but often fluctuates, and it is easy for people to lose the direction of the market. It is very important to see the direction of the market clearly!
Good investors are always waiting, always patient, waiting for the market to confirm their judgment. Remember, don't trust your judgment completely until the trend of the market itself confirms your opinion! Dear
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