Oil prices have finally stopped after rising for 5 consecutive working days, but the overall increase still maintains the 270 yuan tons of the previous day. Next Tuesday, the first oil price adjustment in 2023 will start. From now Judging from the statistical increase in oil prices, the possibility of an increase in oil prices will be greater, and the current forecast increase is 0.21-0.23 yuan per liter.
Brent crude prices moved further above $85/barrel in thin trade on Tuesday as further restrictions were lifted in Asia and winter storms across the US disrupted its oil supplies over the past few days, More than a third of refinery capacity in the Gulf of Texas has been shut due to winter storms.
However, there are reports that oil prices may continue to fall to the level of $50/barrel due to the economic slowdown caused by global central bank tightening monetary policies, although many analysts believe that oil prices can still return to $100/barrel However, historical experience shows that after an event like the Russia-Ukraine war in the first half of this year that led to a sharp rise in oil prices, the drop in oil prices from the high point will usually last for 1-2 years.
In addition, after a sharp rise in oil prices, the impact on the economy will usually have aftermath. Because energy is a necessary consumer expenditure, rising oil prices will squeeze other expenditures of companies and consumers, and some purchasing decisions will also be delayed. At the same time, The sharp rise in oil prices will encourage producers to increase production, and the supply in the oil market is expected to increase. These factors make oil prices fall for a longer period of time after the major events that pushed up oil prices fade away.
At present, in addition to the natural connection between past prices and supply and demand, the world is also facing economic concerns caused by the central bank tightening monetary policy sharply. On the other hand, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its oil-producing allies are also Demand concerns announced production cuts, and Russia threatened to cut output in response to Western caps on its oil prices.
These two production cuts are still not enough to match the decline in demand, and oil prices will still fall, but the lows will not last long, as demand will also recover.
The latest Goldman Sachs report predicts that global oil demand will grow by 2 million barrels per day in 2023, mainly due to restrictions on mobile demand in Asia. The organization's forecast is an annual increase of 2.25 million barrels per day. Goldman Sachs also lowered its forecast for the average price of Brent crude oil in 2023 from US$110 per barrel to US$98 per barrel, and the forecast for the average price of West Texas crude oil from US$105 per barrel. down to $92/barrel.
The International Energy Agency said in a November report that with the EU import ban on Russia's seaborne oil products coming into effect, competition for non-Russian diesel will be so intense that EU countries will have to rely on imports from the US, the Middle East and Bids on cargoes from India have caused these shipments to move away from traditional buyers.
The agency’s December report mentioned that although Russia’s crude oil exports to Europe fell by 430,000 barrels per day, Russia’s crude oil loadings for the month remained unchanged at just over 5 million barrels per day. By contrast, product flows, particularly diesel, have surged, including to Europe.
Prices of No. 92 and No. 95 gasoline after price adjustment on December 28
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