October 20th, the People’s Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce a new loan market quote rate (LPR): 3.65% for 1-year term and 4.3% for term over 5 years. Months are unchanged. The above LPR is valid until the next LPR release.
In fact, this year LPR ushered in several downgrades. As of now, the 1-year rate has fallen by 15 basis points to 3.65%, and the 5-year rate has fallen by 30 basis points to 4.3%. According to the data on mainstream housing loan interest rates in key cities released by Shell Research Institute : In October 2022, the mainstream first-home loan interest rate in 103 key cities monitored by the Shell Research Institute was 4.12%, down 3 basis points from the previous month, and the second-home loan interest rate was 4.91% %, the same as last month; the average lending cycle this month is 26 days, and the overall lending speed is relatively fast.
On September 29, the People’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice stating that for cities where the sales prices of new commercial housing from June to August 2022 have continued to decline month-on-month and year-on-year, before the end of 2022, phased Relax the lower limit of interest rates on commercial personal housing loans for the first set of housing, that is, allow eligible cities to lower the interest rate on first-set housing loans again. After the release of the above-mentioned policies, the interest rates on first-home commercial loans have been lowered many times.
According to the statistics of the Shell Research Institute, as of October 19, the interest rate of first-home loans in more than 10 cities, including Shijiazhuang, Guiyang, Tianjin, Wuhan, Yichang, and , has dropped below 4%. Among the cities that currently comply with the phased targeted interest rate cut policy, including Dalian, Harbin, Wenzhou , Quanzhou and other cities, the housing loan interest rate is at the level of 4.1%, and there is still room for callback in the later period. In the absence of any change in the interest rate policy for second-home loans, 95% of the 103 cities this month maintained their second-home loan interest rates at the lower limit of 4.9%.
In addition to the reduction of the first-home commercial loan interest rate, the first-home personal housing provident fund loan interest rate has also been lowered in many places. On September 30, the People's Bank of China announced that starting from October 1, 2022, the interest rate on the first set of personal housing provident fund loans will be lowered by 0.15 percentage points. According to the reporter's understanding, since October, many cities including Beijing have announced the implementation of the reduction policy of the provident fund interest rate announced by the People's Bank of China. , down to 2.6% and 3.1% respectively.
Under multiple favorable policies, the confidence of home buyers has recovered. According to the survey report on urban depositors in the third quarter of 2022 released by the People's Bank of China, 17.1% of residents plan to buy a house in the next three months, which is higher than the 16.9% in the second quarter. According to the financial statistics report for the first three quarters of 2022 recently released by the People's Bank of China, RMB loans increased by 18.08 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 1.36 trillion yuan year-on-year. In terms of sectors, household loans increased by 3.41 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 1.09 trillion yuan, and medium and long-term loans increased by 2.32 trillion yuan. According to the analysis of the Shell Research Institute, the staged first-home loan interest rate cut combined with the adjustment of purchase restrictions and loan restrictions will significantly reduce the purchase cost of first-time home buyers and accelerate home buyers' decision-making, which will help increase market transactions. In the context of the increasingly dominant role of improving demand in the market, the possibility of further structural adjustments to the second-home loan interest rate policy cannot be ruled out in the future.
Wang Yanling, a reporter from Nandu Bay Finance Agency
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