investors and "stock god" Buffett witnessed the fifth crash in the history of US stocks and the fourth crash this month. The circuit breaker really came.
U.S. stocks circuit breaker for the fourth time in 10 days
Near 1 a.m. Beijing time on March 19, the S&P 500 fell 7%, triggering the circuit breaker mechanism and suspending trading for 15 minutes; the Dow’s decline expanded to 7.82%, and the Nasdaq fell more than 6.3% .
This is the fourth fuse in the US stock market in the past 10 days, and the 5th fuse in the history of the US stock market.
The Dow has fallen more than 32% from its all-time high, erasing all of the gains since Trump's inauguration.
What is the stock market circuit breaker mechanism? The
circuit breaker mechanism is a kind of protection for investors. When the index falls to a certain level, trading will be suspended for 15 minutes, allowing irrational selling to return to rationality. This will prevent the stock market from falling again.
The three major stock indexes in the United States are: Dow Jones Index (average stock price index), S&P 500 Index (recording the stock index of 500 listed companies in the United States), Nasdaq Index (reflecting Nasdaq market) Stock Price Averages), in short, these three indices reflect the current state of U.S. stocks. The
fuse mechanism is a fuse in the US stock market with three layers. When
drops to 7%, the city suspends trading for 15 minutes; when
drops to 13%, it suspends trading again for 15 minutes; when
drops to 20%, the city stops trading that day.
However, each layer mechanism is only triggered once a day. For example, if the price drops to 7%, the transaction is stopped. When the transaction resumes, the price has risen. After the rise, when the price falls to 7% again, the transaction will not be suspended until it falls to 13%.
Should the current A-shares be bought up or down?
The iron rule of going up:
1, only buy stocks on an upward trajectory, not stocks on a downward trajectory. If the stock has been on an upward trajectory, you should seize the opportunity and insist on Hold it, don't sell it as soon as your head is hot.
2, buy stocks on the lower edge of the ascending track, and then hold them. When the ascending track changes significantly, you must sell them decisively without hesitation.
3. For those stocks whose situation is complicated and you can't see clearly, don't go in rashly. The same is true for stocks.
4. Don't buy all the money in the same stock at once, even if you're very bullish on it and prove you're right afterwards. Because aberrations change so quickly and no one knows what will happen tomorrow, there is always the possibility to buy lower, or to have a better chance of buying.
5. If you mistakenly buy stocks in the downward trajectory, you must sell them quickly to avoid expanding losses.
6. If the stock you bought has not lost any money yet, but it has entered a downward trajectory, you should also quickly exit the wait-and-see.
7, stocks that are not on an upward trajectory, don't look at them at all. No matter what happens in the future, don't accompany the main force to open positions. Retail investors don't have time to spend with them.
8, increase the position when you win, and reduce the size when you lose. If you don't want to die fast but want to earn fast, this is the only way.
9, don't believe in performance, it only represents the past, not the future.
10, speculating in stocks is speculating in the future, not the past.
11 The stock is cheap, it's down a lot, it's not a reason for you to buy, never!!! It could be even cheaper.
12, the stock is very expensive and has risen a lot, and it is not a reason for you to refuse to buy or sell. It could also go higher.
"No chasing after rising three, no pressing when falling four"
means that after a stock in the stock market has risen for three consecutive days, don't follow up; then after it has fallen for four consecutive days, stop and to enter. The market is over, and at this time, it often breaks down and falls without support, and the bottom-hunting is halfway up the mountain. It is really not fooling people! It is generally reflected in the use of the moving average .
Speaking of the moving average, everyone should be very familiar with it. In fact, it is the abbreviation of the moving average. To be more specific, it is to divide the sum of the closing price of the stock on N trading days by N to get a value, and then put These values are connected in the form of points, and a smooth curve can be obtained, that is, the N-day moving average. moving averages reflect priceA very important indicator for running the trend, because once the trend is formed, it will continue for a period of time, so the moving average has a strong guiding effect on the buying and selling of stocks. The reason why the
moving average is widely used is because it has the following basic characteristics:
1. Trend tracking The
moving average has the characteristics of reflecting the trend running direction of stock price , so its indicators can play a trend following role in the stock price operation , maybe at a certain day or at a certain moment, the fluctuation of the stock price will temporarily deviate from the original running trend, but as long as there is no corresponding change in the moving average system, we cannot be sure that the running trend of the stock price has turned.
Second, hysteresis
When the original trend of the stock price reverses , due to the characteristics of tracking the trend, the action of the moving average is often too slow, and the speed of the stock price turning back lags behind the general trend.
This is a huge weakness for moving averages. By the time the moving averages signal a trend reversal, the depth of the stock price turnaround has been substantial (Figure 1). Therefore, the use of moving averages must be combined with the K-line combination theory and other technical indicators.
Figure 1
3. Stability
can be known from the calculation of the moving average, it is more difficult to change its value, whether it is up or down, it must be a big change in the price of the day.
Because the change of MA is not a one-day change, but a few days' change, the big change of one day is spread over several days, and the change will become smaller and not visible. This kind of stability has advantages and disadvantages, and you should pay more attention to it when applying it, and master the proportions.
Fourth, boosting
When the stock price runs above the moving average, due to a short-term correction, the stock price falls back to the vicinity of the moving average. Investors who planned to buy at this price in the early stage failed to buy for various reasons. Will buy at this time;
On the other hand, since the moving average represents the average cost of the corresponding period, when the stock price falls back to the moving average, the investors who bought in the early stage will be unprofitable and will not sell The urge to take profits reduces the pressure to sell.
The increase in buying and the reduction in selling pressure, that is, the increase in demand and the decrease in supply, the stock price will rise, showing a boost, especially when the running trend of the moving average is steep and upward, this boost performance more obvious (Figure 2).
Figure 2
Another manifestation of the boosting effect of the stock price is that the stock price stops rising after a period of rise, stands still, and oscillates slightly. At this time, due to the increase in turnover, the market cost rises, and the moving average follows the upward movement. When the moving average When the line reaches near the bottom of the stock price, some investors think that the consolidation is sufficient and will buy again. From the candlestick chart, it looks like the moving average is pushing the stock price up.
Especially in the case of the A-share market where there are no stocks, the main force of the stock may clean up the floating chips by standing still and oscillating slightly. After a few days of sorting, most of the floating chips have been cleared, improving the market. The purpose of cost (rising average) has been achieved, and the stock price will be raised again. If the main force is still in the accumulation stage, the floating chips that should be sold have been thrown out through the method of standing still and small fluctuations. If the main force wants to absorb more chips, it will raise the stock price again, and will only be willing to sell at a higher price. The chips out are put into the bag.
5. Helping fall
When the stock price is running below the moving average, the stock price is drawn back to the moving average due to the short-term rebound, and the short-term buyers who bought at the bottom in the early stage will take profits;
On the other hand, in the early stage Those who plan to sell at this price, but have not yet thrown out due to various reasons, or have not completely thrown out, will take advantage of the rebound of the stock price to accelerate the pace of throwing.
Investors who plan to buy the stock in the early stage, because the stock price has risen for a while, will have a new idea, that is, wait for the stock price to fall again or wait for the stock price to cross the moving average before buying in order to be safe.
then the wait-and-see atmosphere increased significantly. The increase in supply and the decrease in demand will make the stock price fall again, showing the help of the moving average. This tendency to fall is particularly prominent when the moving average is trending downward and the moving average is trending downward.
6. Characteristics of support lines and pressure lines
The stock market is influenced by bad newsWhen the stock price falls to a certain price, short sellers think it is profitable to buy stocks in large quantities, so that the stock price does not fall, or even rises. The level at which the stock price falls is called the support line.
Pressure lines are also known as resistance lines. When the stock price rises near a certain price, the stock price will stop rising, or even fall back, because the short side sells it here. The pressure line acts to stop the stock price from continuing to rise. This checkpoint, which acts to stop or temporarily stop the stock price from continuing to rise, is where the pressure line is located. Due to the above-mentioned characteristics of the moving average,
plays the role of a support line and a pressure line in the stock price trend. The breaking of the moving average is actually the breaking of the support and resistance lines. The longer the period chosen for the moving average, the greater the support and pressure on the stock price. Such as the 30-day line is much stronger than the support and pressure from the 5-day line.
8 rules for buying and selling stocks with moving averages
1, the moving averages gradually flatten from the decline and rise slightly upwards, and the stock price breaks above the moving averages, which is a buy signal.
2, the stock price is running above the moving average, and it is time to buy when the stock price does not fall below the moving average and then rises again.
3, the stock price runs above the moving average and falls below the moving average when it retraces, but the short-term moving average continues to show an upward trend, and this is the time to buy.
4. The stock price runs below the moving average and suddenly plummets. It is too far from the moving average, and it is very likely to approach the moving average (extremes will reverse, and the price will rebound). This is the time to buy.
5, the stock price is running above the moving average, rising sharply for several days in a row, and getting farther and farther from the moving average, indicating that those who buy stocks in the near future have made a lot of profits, and there will be selling pressure for profit taking at any time, and they should temporarily sell their holdings.
6, the moving average line gradually flattened from the rise, and when the stock price fell from the moving average line and broke below the moving average line, it means that the selling pressure is getting heavier, and the stocks you hold should be sold.
7. The stock price is running below the moving average, but it did not break through the moving average when it rebounded, and the moving average decline slowed down. After reaching the level, there is a downward trend. At this time, it is time to sell.
8, after the stock price rebounded and hovered above the moving average, but the moving average continued to fall, it is advisable to sell the stocks you hold.
Eight trading rules of Ge Nanwei moving average
5 common bottom reversal signals:
bottom reversal signal [flat bottom]
flat bottom appears in a downtrend and consists of two or more K lines, but these K The lowest point of the line is almost at the same level. At the flat bottom position, the more times the stock price is tested and supported, and the larger the trading volume, the stronger the support at this position and the stronger the reversal signal.
bottom reversal signal [two positives and one negative]
two positives and one negative is both a rising relay signal and a bottom reversal signal. There are three main technical features: 1) It is composed of three K lines. ;2) On the first day, a big positive line or a medium positive line is drawn, on the second day, a negative line that is similar to the first day is drawn down, and a large positive line or a medium positive line is drawn on the third day. , to realize the technical reverse package; 3) There are technical deformations between the two positive clips and one negative, and the strengths are not the same, as shown in the figure below.
bottoming out reversal signal [friends counterattack, dawning , rising sun]
friends counterattack, dawning, rising sun K line is similar in shape, so put together. The three reversal signals increase one by one. After the continuous downward movement, you must pay attention to this signal. The
friend's counterattack consists of two K lines: one yin and one yang: first a large or medium yin line is drawn, and then a large or medium yang line that gaps and opens lower, and the closing of these two K lines same or similar price. The dawn of
is also composed of two K lines, one yin and one yang: the first one is a large negative line, and then the second trading day gapped and opened lower, but finally the big positive line was closed, and the closing price had crossed upward. The middle of the black solid from the previous day.
Rising Sun East Rising is also composed of two K lines, one yin and one yang: first, a large or medium yin line is closed, and then there is a large or medium yang line that opens higher and moves higher, and the closing price of the yang line is higher than the previous one. Yinxian opening price.
's bottom reversal signal [Daystar]
Qixing is a typical bottom reversal pattern that connects the past and the future. The main morphological features are 3 points:1) The first day is a big negative line; 2) The second day is a small negative line that gaps down (a small positive line can also be used), the second K line, it is best to gap down and open, the graph is the strongest It is a doji, such a morning star is the most standard, and provides the strongest bottoming signal; 3) The third day is a big positive line, which can engulf more than half of the large negative line. [Single hammer line]
bottom reversal signal [single hammer line]
hammer line is like a hammer, and there are three main characteristics in the bottom reversal process: 1) It appears on the way down, and it is best after the downturn; 2) The positive line ( It can also be a negative line) The entity is very small, generally there is no upper shadow line (even if there is, the upper shadow line is also very short), but the lower shadow line is very long; 3) The larger the ratio between the entity and the lower shadow line, the more valuable it is for reference. When the hammer and the morning star appear at the same time, the bottom signal is more reliable.
I will share with you a bottom-hunting indicator. This is the indicator of the attached image. It is recommended to use the moving average system in the main image. Don't rush to buy when the "buy the bottom" signal, you can wait for the 10-day moving average to go up and then consider buying, and you can filter by seeing whether the trading volume is enlarged before the signal appears. In short, not every "buying" signal can be The implementation should be screened with the aid of other indicators such as moving average or volume energy, and the specific situation can be grasped by oneself. Copying the formula code will inevitably cause some format errors. If you cannot import it successfully, you can find me to get the source code! The source code of the
formula is as follows:
Short trend: ((3*SMA((CLOSE-LLV(LOW,27))/(HHV( HIGH,27)-LLV(LOW,27))*100,5,1)-2*SMA(SMA((CLOSE-LLV(LOW,27))/(HHV(HIGH,27)-LLV(LOW,27 ))*100,5,1),3,1)-50)*1.032+50),COLORRED;
VAR2:=(2*CLOSE+HIGH+LOW+OPEN)/5;
VAR3:=LLV(LOW,34 );
VAR4:=HHV(HIGH,34);
Long Trend:EMA((VAR2-VAR3)/(VAR4-VAR3)*100,13),COLOR00FF00;
Judgment Bottom: SQRT(SQRT(FLOOR(SQRT(MA (1/WINNER(CLOSE)*100,4)/10000))))*5;
VAR5:=CROSS(short trend,long trend)AND long trend
bottom:STICKLINE(short trend <10>0,0,30 ,6,1);
STICKLINE(VAR5,0,50,8,0) ,COLORRED;
DRAWICON(VAR5 AND judgment bottom>0,60,1);
DRAWTEXT(COUNT(short trend <10>0,8) AND VAR5,50, 'Buy the bottom');
DRAWTEXT(CROSS(short trend,long trend)AND long trend>25 AND long trend>REF(long trend,1),50,'fast pull or short top');
VAR6:=CROSS(short trend ,long trend)AND long trend
DRAWTEXT( COUNT(short trend <30>0,5) AND VAR6,30,' short-term buy');
want to know more about the operation skills and formula codes of the current A-share stage, or If you have any doubts, you can pay attention to the public account Yuesheng Raiders (yslc688), more market outlook operations and stock technical analysis methods are waiting for you to learn, and the dry goods are endless!
The market opportunity judgment method, investors can accurately judge the opportunities of the market and individual stocks , and choose the opportunity according to the methods you have mastered, so as to make your buying and selling well-founded, clear, and accurately grasp the timing of buying and selling!
1. Opportunity classification in the process of market cycle
(1) as a baseOpportunities in the process: After the stock price has fallen, the technical factors are at a low level, and there is a process of bottoming out and then bottoming out.
is a short-term opportunity, with little room for rising and falling during operation, and a long period of time, which is dominated by repeated shocks. The risk is small, and the way to control the risk is to break the stop loss. It is suitable for arbitrage speculators, and value investors should be able to withstand the risk of shocks or even short-selling.
(2) Opportunities for the uptrend process: The stock price breaks through the downtrend and bottom pattern , forming an uptrend to an uptrend destruction process.
is a mid-line opportunity. It has the largest room for growth and a long time in operation. It is dominated by big ups and downs. There is no risk in the medium term, there is adjustment risk in the short term, and risk control is to cover short positions. Suitable for trend speculators and trend investors.
(3) Opportunity of the head process: It refers to the shock head process after the stock price has risen sharply, the technical elements are at a high level, and there is a peak.
is a short-term opportunity. It has little room for rising and falling during operation, and takes a long time. It is mainly composed of repeated shocks, and it mostly presents a compound type. The risk is greater, and the risk control is to break the stop loss. Scope of application: Arbitrage speculators and trend operators mainly focus on lightening and closing positions in this process.
(4) Opportunities for the process of falling and rebounding: The process of falling and rebounding refers to the short-term rising process on the way down due to short-term oversold after the stock price breaks down and falls.
is a short-term opportunity, the upside is relatively small and the time is the shortest. The risk is the greatest, and the risk control is to break the stop loss. Scope of application: Arbitrage speculators and trend operators should not buy at will, but mainly short positions and wait and see.
2. Opportunity classification of different types of quotations
Different types of quotations have different rising space and time and operation methods, so the nature of opportunities and the methods used are also different.
(1) Opportunity for a long market: It refers to the formation of a cycle on the weekly line. From the weekly line, you can see the process of bottoming, rising, midway finishing, starting and falling. It includes more than two intermediate levels. Quotes. This kind of opportunity does not happen every year in the domestic market.
is a long-term opportunity with the largest upside and the longest running time, about more than a year. The operation mode of
is: after a long-term crash, the bottom-making process is complicated, and the bottom of the compound form is the main one. There are various ways of rising. There are more than two staged or morphological adjustments in the middle. The head is mainly composed of composite form heads, and most of the heads have a process of attracting more.
In terms of risk, there is no long-term risk after bottoming; there is a risk of mid-line consolidation, and risk control is to cover positions. Suitable for: Trend speculators, trend investors and value investors.
(2) Opportunities for the intermediate market: The intermediate market refers to the formation of a cycle on the daily line, which forms a process of bottoming, rising, midway finishing, making a head, and falling on the daily line, which includes more than two times. Level Quotes. From the daily line, we can clearly find 5 waves up and 3 waves down, and there is at least one mid-line opportunity in my country's broader market every year.
is a midline opportunity. In the space of
, there is a lot of upside, and there is a chance of 30% to 50% increase. In the time of
, the running time is longer, about 3 months or more. In the
method, it is simple to make a bottom after a mid-term decline, with a single bottom form as the main form. The operation of the rising process is diverse, with big rises and small falls. There are two forms in the middle. Ministry also has a process of inducement.
In terms of risk, there is no risk in the middle line, and there is a risk of finishing in the short line. Risk control is to cover positions. Suitable for: Trend speculators and trend investors.
(3) Opportunities for secondary market: The so-called secondary market refers to the formation of a cycle on the 60-minute chart, which forms a process of bottoming, rising, midway finishing, starting, and falling on the 60-minute chart. From the 60-minute point of view, it can be clearly found that 5 waves rise and 3 waves fall, and the secondary market contains more than two technical quotations.
is a short-term rebound opportunity. In terms of space, the upside is small, and the general increase rate is below 30%. In terms of time, the running time is relatively short, generally 1 to 5 weeks. In the
method, it is simple to make a bottom after a staged oversold. The bottom is mainly a single pattern. The rising process is mainly a shock rise. There is a K-line arrangement in the middle. The head is mainly a simple shape head and a K-line head. It will not effectively break through the substantial pressure level. In terms of
risk, there is a K-line consolidation risk in the short-term, and a large medium-term risk. Risk control is to break the stop loss.
adaptation range: Arbitrage speculators.
(4) Opportunities for technical market: The so-called technical market refers to the formation of a cycle on the 15-minute chart, which forms a process of bottoming, rising, midway finishing, starting, and falling on the 15-minute chart. From the 15-minute chart, we can clearly find 5 waves up or 3 waves down.
is a short-term reverse pumping opportunity, which is the smallest opportunity. In the space of
, the upside is the smallest, and the general increase is less than 15%. In the time of
, the running time is the shortest, usually 3 to 5 days. In the
method, it is simple to make a bottom after a technical oversold, and there is no obvious bottom pattern. The operation method of the rising process is simple, and the short-term straight line rises in one step. There is a K-line arrangement in the middle, and there is no obvious arrangement pattern. The head is a simple K-line head. Mainly, the rise will not effectively break the downtrend, let alone form an uptrend. In terms of risk of
, it is short-term risk-free, and there is a risk of K-line consolidation, but there is still a downside risk in the mid-line, which belongs to the reverse pumping behavior during the medium-term downtrend. Risk control is to break the stop loss. Scope of application: Arbitrage speculators and trend operators are not allowed to participate.
When new investors are trapped on the mountain, those who escape from the top should also be careful, do not grab the rebound at will in the process of falling, and the master may also die in the middle of the mountain.
(The above content is for reference only and does not constitute an operation suggestion. If you operate by yourself, pay attention to position control and risk at your own risk.)
declares: This content is provided by Yuesheng Raiders, which does not mean that Investment Express endorses its investment views.
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