According to CCTV news, on November 12, local time, up to now, the Democratic Party has won 50 seats in the Senate of Congress, and in fact has gained control of the Senate.
Republican has temporarily led the House of Representatives before, and there is a high probability of returning to the House of Representatives. The results of the US mid-term elections have basically come out.
As of 10:46 on November 13, Beijing time, the Republicans won 211 seats in the House of Representatives and the Democrats won 50 seats in the Senate. (Image source: Associated Press)
CCTV news report said that if the Democratic Party finally wins the Georgia Senate seat that will be re-run on December 6, the party will first reach 51 seats and win control of the Senate; In the event of winning the Georgia Senate seat, the two sides will each hold 50 seats in the Senate. At that time, Vice President Harris can break the deadlock in the event of a tie, and Democrats can still control the Senate.
The U.S. ruling party loses in the mid-term elections, which is actually very common The outcome of the election will also directly affect Biden’s governance for the next two years and the 2024 presidential election.
The US Congress is divided into the House of Representatives and the Senate: the former has a total of 435 seats, and the term of office is two years, and the seats in each state depend on the size of the population of the state; The state has 2 seats and members serve for six-year terms. The terms of the 100 senators are staggered, with a third of them re-elected every two years.
The US midterm elections are held every four years and new members of Congress are re-elected. All 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 members of the Senate were re-elected in this election. In addition, positions such as governors of 36 of the 50 states in the United States will be elected.
In this mid-term election, as the party of the president, the ruling Democratic Party has a high probability of losing control of the House of Representatives. In fact, this has been extremely common in history.
This is known as the "presidential penalty", which means that in midterm elections, the president's party tends to lose. That's because voters' disappointment with the president often leads to another party's success in midterm elections.
According to the statistics of surging news reporters, since 's mid-term elections in 1922, if this expected result is counted, there have been 5 similar incidents. This includes 2018, when then-President Trump's Republican Party lost the House of Representatives.
In addition, Judging from past mid-term election results data, the ruling party is usually more likely to lose in the House of Representatives.
In the 19 midterm elections from 1946 to 2018, the ruling party at that time only managed to win more seats in the House of Representatives in 1998 and 2002 respectively. In the battle for the Senate, the then-ruling party won more seats four times and kept the original number of seats twice. Why does
have this phenomenon? The U.S. polling agency FiveThirtyEight pointed out that the House election is more susceptible to the national election environment than the Senate election, in part because the House election is to re-elect all 435 seats, while the Senate will elect only one-third of the members.
loses control of the House, what are the implications?
There is a high probability that the Democrats will lose the House of Representatives this time. What will be the impact? One of the most direct effects of is that it may hinder the promotion of future bills in the Biden administration.
In the United States, generally speaking, if a bill wants to become the final law, it needs to be proposed by one house, and then submitted to the other house for deliberation after deliberation and approval. After both houses have approved and unified the text, it is submitted to the President for signature by the President. The majority party in the House of Representatives can influence this process to a large extent. Statistics from
Morgan Stanley (Morgan Stanley) and other institutions show that after the ruling party lost in the mid-term elections in November of that year, the passing rate of the bill supported by the president decreased significantly in the following year.
Pew Research CEnter) survey of adult registered voters in the United States from October 10th to 16th this year shows that for this mid-term election, 79% of voters are still concerned about economic issues, which is the issue that most voters care about. This was followed by the country's democratic future (70%) and education (64%).
Looking further, voters who support Democrats pay more attention to topics such as the future of democracy, education, and health than voters who support Republicans; while the former will pay more attention to issues such as the economy, violent crime, and immigration.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-