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There is no doubt that this is the day that changed the world : On February 24th, the war in Ukraine broke out. The war continues brutally, and people continue to fall in a pool of blood. As I said before, I am very pessimistic about the situation, because all the situations have clearly shown that war is bound to happen. Not to mention
, the opponent is Putin .
specific details and progress, not to say more. I saw many Western leaders say that this was the darkest day in Europe after World War II. may be. But more precisely, this is the second time, the first being the 1998 air raid on the Yugoslavia, which opened the magic box of war. Putin is nothing but a gourd.
The most critical thing right now is not the war. The outcome of the war is no longer in suspense, but the consequences. The consequences are very serious and affect the whole world, including us who are far from the battlefield.
completely personal opinion, ten serious consequences.
Consequence one, the global stock market crashed and fluctuated.
On February 24th, there were two places with the most violent shocks in the world. One was the Ukrainian battlefield, where real action was taken; the other was the global stock market, where real money was lost.
Anyway, the war started, global stock markets plummeted, A shares fell into dogs, Japanese stocks were worse than dogs, German stocks and British stocks couldn't bear to watch, and the Russian stock market crashed across the board. The Russian RTS index once fell by more than 50%, that is to say, all stocks were cut in half; half of the wealth in hand was zero.
You can imagine how tragic this is. So many A-share students sighed, saw the stock market fall, and it felt like they were using my money to fight Ukraine. In the era of globalization, the impact of war is also global, and no one can escape it.
But the stock market is also the most treacherous place. On February 24, Nasdaq opened and fell 3.45%; but by the close, it rose 3.34%. Russian stocks are crying, US stocks are laughing wildly. If I had to explain it, it would be the old stock market saying: Buy on the sound of cannons, sell on the sound of trumpet.
In the next few days, the global market will definitely jump up and down. Some are fearful in greed, and some are greedy in fear.
The second consequence is that the international oil price of gold has skyrocketed.
is heart-pounding. Anyway, after 7 and a half years, the international oil price has exceeded 100 US dollars per barrel. Gold is also selling like crazy. Many gold stocks in A-shares have a daily limit, and the international gold price has also skyrocketed across the board.
This may also be one of Putin's most confident chips. The reason why
is one of them is because he has at least two, one is the nuclear weapon , he is so sure that the West does not dare to send troops and directly fights Russia, because Russia's nuclear weapons are not a joke; the other is oil, war It is a lot of money, and the Western sanctions against Russia will also make a huge loss, but oil prices are skyrocketing.
The worst offenders are oil consuming countries. When I see the Americans, I sigh: This war, Russia has gained more land, and the Americans have obtained higher oil prices.
If the war continues, commodity prices will rise. Prices this year are a bit high.
Consequence three is not just a humanitarian disaster.
is a sigh.
Ukraine, what a rich land, the breadbasket of Europe. Back then in the Soviet Union, Ukraine was second only to Russia, but 30 years after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the country was divided, mountains and rivers were shattered, and wars continued.
But the Ukrainian people cry in the cold wind.
Austrian Chancellor Nehamer revealed that war broke outLater, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called him and told him: "I don't know how long my country can survive." See some predictions, this war may result in 50,000 deaths and 5 million refugees.
A large number of refugees will pour into Russia, and more will pour into European Union. In the short term, this will be a humanitarian crisis, and the EU will bear a heavy burden; in the long run, it may even lead to changes in the population map. A large number of Ukrainian refugees will provide fertility for European populism and xenophobia. the soil, and thereby changing the European political arena.
Consequence four, Russia will grit its teeth and hold on.
The West will not send troops, nor dare to send troops. But the remaining option, aside from condemning Russia, is sanctions. Although
has sanctioned Russia more than 100 times before, now, Russia will encounter the most severe one in history. All of Russia’s assets in the West will be frozen, and Russia will even be expelled from the international financial system… After the outbreak of the war, Putin met with the business community and said frankly: “We all, including you, cannot predict all potential risks. , to understand the world we live in and, in one way or another, prepare for the policies of restrictions and sanctions that are taking place now.” On one side are Western countries, which account for more than half of the world's GDP, and on the other, Russia, which accounts for only 2%. The disparity in economic power will make Russia bear the pressure of Mount Tai.
For the next few years, Russia will have to bite the bullet. If it survives, Russia will not be very prosperous; if it cannot survive, it will be a new crisis, or even a bigger crisis.
Consequence five, a more intense war of attrition cut throat war .
Will Russia sit still?
certainly not. This will be a more intense integration vertical and horizontal , the West has allies, and Russia has no shortage of small partners. Of course, more importantly, Russia, which is clenching its teeth, has no shortage of countermeasures.
Even if Western civil aviation is restricted from flying over Russian airspace, it will completely disrupt the entire civil aviation market; not to mention, Russia still has natural gas and oil that Europe needs.
This will be a war of attrition. European politics is also complicated. It cannot be ruled out that pro-Russian forces and leaders will emerge. Russia will seize the opportunity to divide the contradictions between Europe and the United States and Europe.
Russia's strategy of struggle, too, will be relentless. This is a long-term cut-throat battle. Once Russia feels that it has nothing to lose, what will happen to the world?
Consequence Six, completely rewriting European geopolitics.
Originally, Ukraine had turned to the West and applied to join NATO and the European Union. But now, with the entry of the Russian tank , the process has come to an abrupt end.
Is this the last time Europe has rewritten its borders? I don't think anyone would naively think so.
Remember that Russia has the largest conventional army in Europe, ready to use. In fear, Eastern European member states, including Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Romania, may demand large numbers of NATO troops to enter their territories.
does not even rule out that Finland and Sweden ask to join NATO in the future.
That means that the Russian army and the NATO army will be in closer contact. Is the world safer or more dangerous without a buffer zone?
Consequence Seven, the West has to adjust its strategy again.
This is probably our most speechless place.
Time and time again, the United States and the West hope to focus on China and transfer more and more resources to Asia; they are beaten in the face time and time again, because the biggest threat is not China at all.
The Ukrainian war, the United States will have to make a new strategic adjustment, send more troops to Europe, and focus more resources on sanctions against Russia. Just like after the 9/11 incident, the United States had to make strategic adjustments, because the most important enemy at that time was neither China nor Russia, but terrorism.
At least in the short term, the number one enemy of the West must be Russia. Of course, we should not be too optimistic. Western politicians say that they will change, and it is not ruled out that after a period of time, they will reach some kind of tacit understanding with Russia, sacrifice Ukraine, and then turn around again to deal with the eastern powers.
Consequences Eight, the drastic change of Western mentality.
There must have been a drastic change in mentality.
In the past, NATO was expanding eastward step by step, and I felt it was inevitable. Brzezinski threatened in " Big Chess Game ": "An expanded and democratic Europe must be an unending historical process and should not be limited by geography arbitrarily smeared politically... Russia is too weak to be a partner; but Russia is too strong if only as a patient of America. "
But the result?
has appeared decades later, and the aggrieved Russia has not played cards according to common sense, and simply chose war. In Putin's words, Russia has no choice but to defend its own security. The serious consequences of
forcing a big country into a Jedi must be carefully weighed by other countries.
The world has seen the wickedness of Western countries. The mentality of Eastern European countries will change even more, some are cautious, some are more afraid of Russia and hate Russia.
In fact, Han Feizi once had a motto: is not a humble person in a small country, he who is less powerful but not afraid of the strong, who is rude and insults his neighbors, and who is greedy and poor in friendship can perish.
This is certainly not historical justice, but this is the harsh reality of jungle politics. Especially in Eastern European countries, the feeling is even stronger.
Consequences nine, the conflict between Europe and the United States will eventually break out.
may seem monolithic now, but conflicts will definitely break out eventually.
In fact, there are subtle differences in the attitudes of the US and Europe towards this Ukraine war. France and Germany really don't want to fight, and Macron is even more non-stop, and diplomatic mediation has been running one after another. The United States and the United Kingdom do not seem to want to fight, but there is still some place to watch the fire from the other side and agitate Ukraine.
, UK, and cosily. After Brexit, I am worried about the prospects. After the war in Ukraine, the sharp rise in oil prices is good for North Sea oil; Europe is in a hurry, London will be the first choice for European capital transfer, and the United Kingdom is the biggest winner.
But as time goes by, the United States and Britain can continue to sing high-profile and continue to swing big sticks, but France and Germany must consider their own safety and economic interests. Russia is not a fuel-efficient lamp, nor will it forget to send some nutrients to the differences between Europe and the United States in time.
You see, in the end, the United States and Europe have fierce differences on the Russian issue, and Russia has a chance to breathe.
Consequences ten, the world sees China's rare and valuable.
In this world, is there a big country that obeys international rules better than China? Is there a great power that respects the sovereignty of other countries more than China? Is there a major country that values peace more than China?
answer, just two words: no!
At the press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs yesterday, Hua Chunying said it very well: In terms of how to respect national sovereignty and territorial integrity, the United States is probably not qualified to tell China what to do... China is still the only one that has not realized the motherland. fully unifiedpermanent member of the Security Council. The words
deserve some people's good understanding.
For the West, China does not export revolution, it does not export hunger and poverty, and it does not bother you. What else is there to say.
For the whole world, China is really a responsible big country.
China is a super model student. One fact after another, the world will see this more and more clearly. Of course, with so many painful lessons in the world, China also needs to be more calm and sober. Don't be arrogant and don't toss.
After all, victory in war is never forever. Over time, the actions of nations to wage and win wrong wars tend to defeat themselves.
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