The impact and role of the Russian-Ukrainian war are discussed more from the perspective of global strategy, focusing more on Europe, focusing on globalization, focusing on free trade and energy crisis . But in fact, the most affected by this war is undoubtedly the parties to the war, namely Ukraine and Russia. Considering the only reality that Ukraine can only rely on the West to survive in the future, it is meaningless to further discuss the future and future of this country, but what is important is Russia. Under this war, what kind of prospects and future will Russia have? Will it be revived or will it sink again?
proceeded from Russia's subjective desire, of course, to gain a more favorable position, better development conditions and greater development space through this war. According to this, some people say that the logic and value orientation of the Russians are completely opposite to those of the Chinese people. If China is in the position of Russia today, it must be keeping a low profile, focusing on developing the economy, resolutely swallowing up the air, bearing the burden of humiliation, not causing trouble, not tossing, doing a good job in domestic construction wholeheartedly, and resolutely pursuing the strategy of peaceful development. However, Russia has gone the opposite way. In the face of increasing internal and external pressure and persecution, it has not retreated. On the contrary, it has been tit-for-tat and proactively attacked.
The question is, can the road of armed rise and war revival work?
Frankly speaking, there is indeed a high degree of uncertainty in Russia's strategic prospects. Now, some people are already talking about Putin's promise. It is said that Putin made such a promise to Russia back then. Give me 20 years. , I give you a mighty Russia. Some people questioned this, what happened to Russia now? In the eyes of these people, today's Russia is suffering from war, and its future and future are uncertain, and the situation is quite bad. There are a lot of people in the world today who are eagerly waiting to see Putin's big joke, to see Russia's big joke.
President Putin and the Russia under his leadership are indeed facing unprecedented pressure, and the situation is not optimistic. From the perspective of a third party, there are three ways and possibilities for Russia in the future: one, a limited victory in the Ukraine war Existence, and now President Putin can only strive for partial and limited victories, such as a local truce, a ceasefire agreement, or the two sides agree to shelve the Eastern Ukrainian region, Russia withdraws troops, Ukraine does not enter, and the United Nations sends peacekeepers or international observers Wait, such a situation should be seen as a limited victory for Russia.
's limited victories had their share of gains and losses. The gain is that Russia's strategic deterrence capability has thus stepped up to a new level and has become more authentic and credible. Russia's strategic rights and interests in the sphere of influence will thus be effectively guaranteed, and the development space and development conditions will be improved. A certain time, space and opportunity.
But even so, Russia still has to face the strong strategic pressure of the West, the confrontation and contest with the West will continue fiercely, and Russia will find no other way out and way to face the West.
Second, the limited failure of the Ukrainian war.
First of all, I want to explain that the Western group and Ukraine Zelensky have both said that they must completely defeat Russia, disarm its nuclear weapons, let Russia accept the defeat in the war, and let Putin Take the trial, and so on.
In this regard, the author can only say that this is just their wonderful strategic dream, and in fact there is no possibility of it being realized. In the Russo-Ukrainian war, Russia cannot be beaten completely and completely.
But the possibility of Russia's partial and limited defeat cannot be ruled out. The so-called partial and limited failures would include situations such as: the partial or total loss of the Udong Donbas region, Crimea also in crisis; humiliating peace talks, accepting political and economic conditions imposed by the Western bloc; European Union And NATO admission of Ukraine, further expansion of NATO into Transcaucasus, recognition of NATO's right to operate freely in Eastern Europe, etc. If
suffers such a failure, Russia's internal and external environment will become morebad. There may be serious social turmoil in the country and serious economic crisis. The interaction of the two will make Russia full of crises and the political situation will be full of variables. President Putin's current regime will be regarded as a failed regime to a considerable extent. It will be unsustainable; in terms of geo-security, multiple and large-scale strategic collapses may occur in the surrounding areas of Russia, including the Transcaucasus, Central Asia, and the Far East. The security situation in Russia will change. more severe. In this case, Russia's future is more uncertain, the future will become more dangerous and scary, and it is quite chilling to think about it.
Third, it has been in the current state of quasi-war for a long time
According to the Russian official interpretation, the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war is not a war launched by Russia, but just a "special military operation", "special military operation" of course It is easier than a war, and it does not constitute a war. Perhaps because of this, at the beginning of the operation, Russia did not carry out obvious domestic mobilization. Later, it was only a "partial mobilization". Of course, everyone now understands that even if Russia exerts its full strength, it will be difficult to win a complete victory. If the current tactic of adding fuel to the battlefield and gradually strengthening the battle continues, this war may be fought like this by both sides. The feet keep hitting the ground.
Under such circumstances, Russia will always be in a state of quasi-war, and it will continue to heal old wounds and create new ones. Today, it is bombed here, destroyed there, and the cycle is repeated and endless. If a big country falls into such a state, it will undoubtedly be a disaster, but each ethnic group has different temperaments and different attitudes towards disasters. It is known as a "fighting nation". Russia's ability to bear and endure is indeed extraordinary.
But how long can Russia sustain under such constant suffering? The variables are also difficult to grasp.
The above three possibilities all have obvious realistic possibilities, that is to say, they are all there, but which one is more likely? This should be a very important strategic prediction. The author believes that most countries in the world will be very concerned about it, and very few important countries will not care about it.
In the author's opinion, to achieve the first possibility, that is, to achieve a limited victory, it may be difficult to achieve it in the current state of Russia. Now, without comprehensive and profound strategic mobilization, it is difficult for Russia to gain an overwhelming advantage on the battlefield. Without overwhelming superiority on the battlefield, limited victories are difficult to achieve. However, if Putin conducts a comprehensive mobilization in Russia, it means that a new national war will be launched, and the risks are difficult to grasp, so this determination is also difficult, and Putin is still hesitating.
The second possibility exists dangerously, but the key and the key is not the victory or defeat on the battlefield. The key depends on the morale of the Russian people. If the morale of the Russian people collapses, the defeat on the battlefield will be inevitable; if Russia can maintain the national Unity, maintaining the morale of the people, it is easier said than done to defeat this nation. At present, the morale of the Russian people is still enough, so relatively speaking, the possibility of Russia encountering limited failure is the smallest among the three possibilities.
The third possibility is relatively large. This state is not without precedent. The state between Israel and Pakistan, and the current state of Syria, are generally like this. Judging from the current state of Russia and Ukraine and the reality of their wars, these two countries may also tragically fall to this stage.
The rise and fall of Russia has a huge impact on the global strategic situation, and it has a strong impact on China's security environment. Therefore, China is by no means a spectator of the Ukrainian war. The strategic evolution and development of this war is destined to be deeply involved in China. ), to this end, China must be prepared in many ways and in many ways, not only to make corresponding preparations for Russia's victory, but also to make corresponding plans for Russia's failure.
Note: The author of this article is Zhang Zhikun, a core member of the "Qin'an Strategic Think Tank", who is an original work for this platform. In the new year, I wish everyone to join hands to defeat the epidemic, curb hegemony, and move towards a better future together.
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