continuously affected by phenomenon-level monolithic films may not be a benign development model for the national comic film industry.
text/Yang Xiaomei
editor/Pang Hongbo
China’s animation industry has gone through three rounds of stimulating factors. In addition to the early policy support and the rise of halfway Internet video sites,
is the most recent one brought by the capital influx brought by "The Return of the Great Sage".
Since 2015, the investment wave triggered by this film has indeed rescued the survival problem of the industry, but the entry of these hot money has not brought the industry to a good state of development, and the dividends brought by "The Return of the Great Sage" quickly disappeared.
At this stall, the word-of-mouth of "Nezha: The Devil Child Comes into the World" experienced explosive growth. The light once again relied on animated movies to enter the market, which proved that high-quality Guoman still has considerable competitiveness in the market. If you follow the inertia of capital, you will probably see another outbreak of the animation industry.
So the question is, to what extent is this "outbreak" viable? Faced with the particularity of the animation industry, how likely is it to face another bubble?
1, the industrial bubble
2016 was an extremely glorious year for Chinese comics.
listed companies backed by the capital market ammunition library and game companies with huge cash flow began to make efforts in the animation field one after another, and investment cases one after another. According to public data, has invested up to 133 in the animation field in 2016, the highest in history, and investment finance has reached nearly 5.2 billion yuan.
The influx of capital is all due to the "Return of the Great Sage". Before the appearance of this national comic film, the domestic animation film market was strongly supported by TV animation IP such as "Xiyangyang" and "Bear Haunted". The box office ceiling was only 300 million, and a large number of national comic films without IP protection could only cost tens of millions. The shadow of the box office continued to spin, "The Return of the Great Sage" won a big box office victory, basically realizing the ice-breaking of the Guoman movie.
Wu Hanqing, who has produced three adult cartoons "Quiba", once said that "The Return of the Great Sage" is a hot seller. Many investment companies are optimistic about this market and have come to seek cooperation. Now investors are inspired by this film, and even more. Confidence to invest in domestic cartoons, the fourth part of "Quaba" will also have more market confidence in the future.
But behind the confidence is an unhealthy market development model. The capital investment boom in 2017 has continued, but it has also come to the end. "I'm more absolute, 95% of animation companies are not profitable." In 17 years, Caitiaowu Pictures President Yi Qiao told reporters. The influx of hot money ultimately led to the fierce two-level division of the industry. "The current situation of animation companies is that successful companies have very good profits. For example, the series of "Big Fish and Begonia", "The Return of the Great Sage" and "Bear Infested" were unsuccessful. Even facing bankruptcy, the good is better, and the bad is worse.”
The work "Nezha's Devil Child Comes to the World", which reorganized the country in 2019, came from Guangguang Caitiao House, a slightly named country in recent years. Comic films such as "The Return of the Great Sage", "The Great Guardian", and "The Big Fish and Begonia" are basically related to the color bar house. When the capital has begun to tilt, making blind investment will undoubtedly increase the risk of the bubble.
Even so, the light still faces strong pressure from the layout of the animation field. According to the 2018 financial report released by Guangguang Media, more than 20 upstream and downstream companies in the animation industry chain invested by Guangguang are mostly in a state of loss. Many animation films have been in production for 3 years. The book loss may continue until the works gradually It was released, but by then the fate of Guoman is still unknown.
For a large number of newly born small-scale outsourcing companies, after 2018, the animation industry market has taken a sharp turn. After the capital ebb, they cannot receive outsourcing orders, waiting for their own results and only bankruptcy. This situation will lead to the same result after the launch of "Nezha". As Yi Qiao said, the market will be rational and diversified, and not every company will make movies. How should
2, income bubble
animation make money?
Almost all original creators are asking this question. Under the temptation of high profits, although Guoman Movies is only a small matrix in the industry chain of China's animation industry, it seems that Guoman Movies has already assumed the responsibility of the industry.
For early animated films, two-dimensional animation production occupies the main market. However, due to the weakness of China's two-dimensional animation base and long personnel training cycle, in order to quickly complete the improvement of the industrial chain, the domestic industry has long shifted the focus of the industry to unnecessary The field of three-dimensional animation accumulated over time.
But the problem followed. Three-dimensional animation movies are notoriously high investment, high production, and high threshold. Three-dimensional animation films released in the United States generally require a production cost of US$100-200 million. Domestic three-dimensional animations such as "The Return of the Great Sage" and "The White Snake: Origin" also Far from reaching this volume. Most of 's national comic films control the production cost at 60 million to 80 million. It is conceivable that the single-film production cost of national comic movies will inevitably rise with market requirements.
The cumbersome and time-consuming creation of
and the large investment are not all the pressures encountered by animated films. The high risks faced by high costs are the source of the bubbles. Chasing Light Animation once won two animated feature films, "Little Door God" and "A Tang Qi Yu" after "The Return of the Great Sage". They also featured high-quality Chinese comics, but the final box office recovered was not as expected. The cost of "Little Door God" was 67 million yuan, and the box office stopped at 78.68 million yuan. "A Tang's Adventure" was even more dismal, with a box office score of 30.39 million under the cost of 85 million yuan.
According to public data, in 2018, a total of 67 cinema animation films with a box office of over one million were released in China, an increase of 6% year-on-year, but the total box office fell by about 13.37% from 2017, or about 4.323 billion yuan. The total box office of 34 domestic animations was only 1.623 billion. The box office of
Guoman movies has shrunk seriously, resulting in a serious disparity in costs and benefits. Obviously, the success of "The Return of the Great Sage" has obviously not radiated to all Guoman movies.
The overall performance of the national comic film market from 2017 to 2018 was lack of head and audience interest was low. It is difficult to ask for help in the publicity of the national comic film. Even the most willing to spend money on the light, gradually due to excessive routines. Bought by the audience. Now it seems that if it is not for the deadlines, the box office rebound of Guoman movies is almost hopeless.
Although "Nezha's Devil Boy Comes into the World" is now booming, the industry has great confidence in its box office performance, but it also benefits from the small competitiveness of summer top movies, and the advance screening has accumulated a lot of public opinion The outbreak, in fact, from this film alone, it is difficult to make a conclusion on the overall box office attractiveness of Guoman movies. From now on, this dividend is still questionable.
3, content bubble
What kind of Chinese comic content can save the market? The outbreak of
"Nezha: The Devil Boy Comes into the World" once again makes the subject matter the most important core of the national comic film. Most people attribute the success of the film to the liking of the theme of the adaptation of traditional mythology. With "The Return of the Great Sage", "The White Snake: Origin" and the "Fengshen Trilogy" being laid out by Caijoya, traditional cultural themes It has been exploding.
From January to December 2018, the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television recorded a total of 131 animated films. More than one-third of the works were based on traditional folk tales, and there were 16 projects on the theme of Shanhaijing. The preference of
content on traditional IP can indeed be a short-term shortcut to achieve explosives. Only in terms of production, due to the imperfection of the domestic animation industry chain, deepening the domestic market is the only option, and traditional themes provide convenience in content. However, the limitations of the subject matter are difficult to support the growth of the entire industry, and it is also possible to provide a petri dish for low-quality content.
On the other hand, the current content of the national comics is still dominated by the low- and young-oriented content. From the projected works, there are only more than ten "non-low-child-oriented" for three consecutive years, which is too low. Although the "low and young" animation movies firmly occupy the mainstream position, they show the characteristics of low content quality. In 2018, only "Bear Infest: Metamorphosis" barely won more than 500 million box office.
Low- and young content is overfilled, and the number of adult-oriented animations is insufficient, resulting in the fact that Guoman has been unable to develop a stable audience market; although the former can drive family-style viewing through young and young, low-quality content is difficult to provide a good viewing experience, the latter Although it can please young consumer groups, it also leads to the lack of stable audiences for animation content, which increases the box office risk of movies.
In fact, with the lack of real "family carnival" animation, Guoman can't cover a wider age group and improve the quality of works.
The outbreak of capital is always accompanied by the rise of monoliths, but monoliths canTo what extent will affect the entire industry and change the continuous lack of industry content is indeed worth thinking about. After the capital ebb, it is the story itself that propped up the national comic film market. In this respect, "The Return of the Great Sage" and "The Devil Boy of Nezha" actually brought more pressure to most of the national comic companies. . The
national comics market has experienced a bubble. The word-of-mouth changes of two consecutive national comics in 2019 seem to have made the track show its upswing, but the severe situation of the industry has not passed. Those attracted by "Nezha" The capital boom may need to be more calm.
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