As the "Super Week" comes to an end, A-shares have once again seen strong growth.
On November 7, the three major stock indexes opened lower and moved higher. In the afternoon, they collectively soared by more than 2% due to the outbreak of the financial and consumer sectors. Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.57%, the Shenzhen Composite Component Index rose by 2.44%, and the Growth Enterprise Market Index rose by more than 3%, reaching 3.75%.
"The market rose sharply again on Thursday (November 7), mainly due to three influencing factors. First, after the overseas related events came to light, it can be clearly seen on the market that the main line of the market has switched, and the market style is rotating. The money-making effect is prominent and the bullish atmosphere is strong. The second is the market’s positive expectations for the incremental policies of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee,” a chief strategist of a brokerage told The Paper.
The chief strategist further said: "The third is the positive stance of the regulatory authorities on the news. The market performance was obviously hotter in the afternoon of Thursday (November 7), and in the morning and noon, both the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the central bank made positive stances during the session. "
Looking forward to the market outlook, as the results of the three recent major events continue to become clear, many interviewees believe that A-shares will most likely continue to fluctuate upward.
"Technically, the market went up sharply on Thursday, with the Shanghai stock market increasing its volume and the Shenzhen stock market shrinking its volume. Regardless of changes in volume or energy or switching between high and low, the main battlefield for funds is expected to shift to the Shanghai stock market. In the short term, the market will also Continue to rise and continue to challenge the pressure near 3674 points," another market analyst pointed out.
breaks out again
Big Wisdom VIP data shows that as of the close on November 7, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.57% to 3470.66 points; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index rose 2.44% to 11235.92 points; the GEM Index rose 3.75% to 2350.76 points .
Regarding the sharp rise on Thursday (November 7), market analysts said that it was mainly due to the increase in the market's money-making effect, positive policy expectations and news stimulation.
Specifically, in terms of market performance, brokerage stocks set off a trend of daily limit on Thursday, CITIC Securities , CITIC Construction Investment , Capital Securities , Hualin Securities , Pacific and many other brokerage stocks hit the daily limit, insurance stocks also led the gains. In terms of consumption, real estate has led the growth, and consumer stocks such as liquor and retail have rebounded.
Zheng Xiaoxia, deputy director and chief economist of Huaan Securities Research Institute, said that the overall market rose sharply on Thursday, and the style switched from early growth technology to finance and consumption. On the one hand, growth technology transactions are overheated, and the main line of the market has switched to "internal circulation." After overseas related events were clarified, the market's expectations for future domestic policies to intensify "internal circulation" fermented. At the same time, the internal rotation of growth technology in the early stage was sufficient and rapid, and transactions were overheated. The main line of the market switched to "internal circulation", and consumption and real estate rose the most. forward.
"The market continues to maintain a high transaction level of more than 2 trillion yuan. At the same time, varieties that represent market sentiment, such as fisheries, securities dealers, beauty care, and computers, have all surged to the top. Under the continued money-making effect, the market has followed the rising sentiment of going long. Strong, especially for ordinary investors," Zheng Xiaoxia pointed out.
In terms of policy expectations, Zheng Xiaoxia said that the market has increasingly strong expectations for the policies of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, especially the real estate support and consumption support policies. As the National People's Congress Standing Committee approaches its closing announcement, the market is increasingly expecting policies that may be implemented at the meeting, from debt policy to real estate support policy to consumption support policy. Consumption and real estate surged on Thursday (November 7). important catalyst. On the news of
, the chief strategy officer of the above-mentioned securities firm said that the release of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the Central Bank and related economic data has also significantly boosted market risk appetite.
On November 7, Shen Bing, director of the Institutional Department of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said that the valuation of A-shares and H-shares is at a relatively historical low, providing more opportunities for long-term allocation of foreign capital.
During the trading session on Thursday, the central bank issued an announcement saying that on November 6, the People's Bank of China held a symposium with foreign financial institutions to listen to the opinions and suggestions of foreign financial institutions and study related work to further optimize the business environment and promote high-level opening up of the financial industry.HSBC, Bank of East Asia in Hong Kong, Standard Chartered Bank, Citibank, DBS Bank in Singapore, Mizuho Bank in Japan, JP Morgan Chase Bank, Société Générale, Deutsche Bank , Canada Bank of Montreal , Morgan Stanley and other 11 banks The heads of foreign financial institutions attended the meeting and delivered speeches.
In addition, data released by the General Administration of Customs on November 7 showed that China’s exports (denominated in RMB) in October increased by 11.2% year-on-year, and the previous value increased by 1.6%. China's exports in U.S. dollars increased by 12.7% year-on-year in October, and the forecast was for a growth of 5%. In the first 10 months of this year, the total value of my country's import and export of goods trade was 36.02 trillion yuan, and foreign trade achieved steady growth. According to customs statistics, in the first 10 months of this year, the total import and export value of my country's goods trade was 36.02 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%.
Mid-term rise is still a high probability event
Looking ahead to the market outlook, as the three major events of the "Super Week" continue to become clear, how will A-shares perform next?
Zheng Xiaoxia believes that the current market’s policy expectations for the policy results of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee’s review on November 8 are getting higher and higher, and there is still uncertainty whether the scale of the incremental policy can meet market expectations, or even whether the scale can be made public. Coupled with the current strong market sentiment and busy trading, expected revisions may intensify market volatility after the final policy results are announced.
"The gradual implementation of the three recent major events will be accompanied by the repair and correction process of market expectations. After the results of the recent three major events are clear, the market direction will be clearer, but at least the probability of an upward shock in the medium term is still high." Zheng Xiaoxia pointed out .
Zheng Xiaoxia further pointed out that even if the policy intensity is not as strong as expected, the market may enter a period of adjustment, but the adjustment intensity will not be very large. First, the effectiveness of early policies has appeared and economic fundamentals have shown signs of improvement. Second, the market's focus will shift to next year's economic situation and policy intensity, that is, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the market is more likely to have optimistic expectations.
Zhao Wei also said that the interference from external factors is temporary. After the market fluctuates briefly, it will continue to fluctuate upward in the original direction. The A-share market on Thursday continued to move independently. The market rose sharply under the leadership of the bull market flag bearer brokerage, and broke through Wednesday's high, setting a new high since the rise of 3152 points. The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets also continued to increase. Keep.
“The market went up sharply on Thursday, with the Shanghai stock market increasing and the Shenzhen stock market shrinking. Regardless of the change in volume or energy, or the switch between high and low, the main battlefield of funds is expected to shift to the Shanghai stock market, which is similar to the trading volume in November 2014. The characteristics of the market are similar, and the short-term market will continue to rise and continue to challenge the pressure near 3674 points," Zhao Wei said. In terms of
configuration, Zheng Xiaoxia suggested that investors pay attention to two main lines: first, some consumer goods with boom or potential policy support and logic of supplementary growth may become short-term relay industries, including automobiles, home appliances, medicine, agriculture and animal husbandry; second, macro and micro Liquidity has improved, third-quarter results have exceeded expectations, and there are many catalysts in the technology direction.
"The second main line has adjustment pressure in the short term, but in the medium term, as the most important and frequent opportunity, the main line remains unchanged, including electronics, communications, electronics, military industry, etc." Zheng Xiaoxia pointed out.
Zhao Wei suggested that investors should be light on the index, heavy on individual stocks, adjust the structure, pay attention to mergers and acquisitions of securities companies, mergers and acquisitions of state-owned enterprises, chips, semiconductors, medicine, education and training, consumption and stocks that have bottomed out, and avoid recent strong stocks. and junk stocks.
