In Pennsylvania, a swing state in the northeastern United States, Mark, a black owner who runs a small auto repair shop in Philadelphia, the largest city in the east, insisted on attending 32 events for Republican presidential candidate Trump despite working three jobs at the same time. At the rally, he witnessed bullets passing by him at close range.
In Lancaster County, about 80 kilometers west of Philadelphia, the Melinger couple, locals who call themselves conservatives, said they would no longer vote for the Republican Party. Amid dramatic demographic changes, new immigrants are outnumbering natives, and the proportion of whites without college degrees has declined.
Drive about an hour and a half northwest from Lancaster County to Bethlehem Steel, a representative of American industrial manufacturing. Its rusted towers and pipes are exposed to the sun. Northampton County, where it is located, is known as the Swing. Key swing counties in the state switched from Democratic to Republican eight years ago, and then from Republican to Democratic four years ago.
The industrial remains of Bethlehem, Pennsylvania.
From Philadelphia to Gettysburg to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania is a microcosm of the United States; from the transformation of economic diversification to the changing demographic structure, Pennsylvania is so complex.
It has an area of 120,000 square kilometers and governs 67 counties. In 2020, the population exceeded 13 million. Except for big cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, most of them are rural; and the rural areas close to New Jersey are not white in the traditional sense. rural. This makes the Pennsylvania election difficult to predict. There is a saying in every election that "whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the world." For the 19 electoral votes, candidates from both parties invested a lot of campaign efforts in Pennsylvania.
“Every little thing is important in every place in Pennsylvania.” Christopher P. Borick, director of the Institute of Public Opinion and Professor of Politics at Muhlenberg College in Pennsylvania, recently told The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) describes the intensity of the election in the state.
Working three jobs is still tight
At 12 o'clock in the evening, Mark finished his last job of the day from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and drove back to the rented apartment 6 kilometers away in Hadden Town, New Jersey.
Recently, Mark has been deeply troubled - the financial pressure is so great that he has gained weight, and "cannot even develop a stable relationship." He recently told The Paper that he is over 38 years old this year.
Mark (right) is over 38 years old and is too busy to fall in love.
Currently, the monthly rent for the Hadden Town apartment where Mark lives is US$1,000, which is equivalent to one-third of the rent for similar apartments in Philadelphia. (Note: The Zillow Rent Index shows that rents in big cities in the United States increased by an average of 4.8% last year, reaching $2,048 per month)
’s 16-hour work day has taken up almost all of his life: he has to get up before 6 a.m. , it takes 20 minutes to drive to work. From 7:30 to 3:30 pm, he works as a manager at an auto repair shop in Philadelphia. In the afternoon, he will take time to take care of the business of his newly opened auto repair shop. From 7 pm to 12 pm, he works in a restaurant. Serve as an assistant manager; in other spare time, I will also do private work of warehouse loading and unloading.
Although he has been working multiple jobs for a long time, Mark still feels that he is not well off financially. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, he worked at Mercedes-Benz Cars. After the epidemic ended, it became more difficult to find a job. It took Mark half a year to finally find a job at an auto repair shop in Philadelphia, with a monthly salary of US$3,500. (Note: As of September 2024, the average annual salary in Philadelphia is approximately US$70,415) So he opened an auto repair shop by himself, but after a few months of operation, the business was not going well and he could only maintain it with difficulty.
"The auto repair business is not easy to do. The monthly rent for the shop alone is US$7,000. Although holding multiple jobs can bring me an income of about US$8,000 per month, the growth rate of wages cannot keep up with food, The increase in gasoline prices,” Mark recently told The Paper.
Drawing of this article Wang Yu
"One job may not be enough to survive, and most people will work two to three jobs to survive." In a shelter school in Philadelphia (Note: A school that provides education for immigrant children without legal documents) Mari, a teacher, feels the same way. She recently told The Paper that nearly half of her students are Asian and Hispanic, with students of all ages ranging from preschool to 8th grade.
"With my current qualifications, my job salary is already very high." Mari currently lives in South Philadelphia. The price of a one-bedroom apartment is around US$2,000-2,500, but the increase in living costs has recently become a primary consideration. She even tries to spend less on food and live a more frugal life.
"A friend gave me a kitten for Christmas last year. It was difficult to take care of. A 14-pound bag of cat food alone costs $25... Renting a house with a pet will increase the rent by $300."
Danmari She loves Philadelphia. "I enjoyed my time as a kid," she said, currently living in Philadelphia with her mother. Mark also believes that "most people in Philadelphia are decent" and that the city provides employment opportunities for many people in the surrounding area.
As the old capital of the United States, Philadelphia is an important transportation hub in the east, connecting New York and Washington. But at the same time, Philadelphia remains one of the poorest among major U.S. cities, with 20% of the population earning less than the federal poverty line. According to the latest federal data, the city's unemployment rate was 5.1% in July, significantly higher than the state and national unemployment rates. Meanwhile, compared to other metropolitan areas across the country, Philadelphia has the highest inflation rate at 7.1%, while Richmond, Virginia, has an inflation rate of just 2.3%.
data shows that as the largest city in Pennsylvania, 40% of the population in Philadelphia is black. Local media in the United States have recently published articles paying special attention to the black community in Philadelphia and their demands. The report cited an analysis of 2023 data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia saying that home ownership and the mortgage debt it often requires, education and the debt it often requires in the city have put a dent in black residents. The returns were nowhere near what they were for white residents.
Dangerous Place and “City of Sanctuary”
“In this city, black Americans once flocked to look for opportunities.” Local media in the United States recently wrote.
Mark is one of them. He was born into a black family with average economic conditions, a family of five. His father worked in a casino and his mother was a nurse. But he still clearly remembers that the place where he grew up - Cherry Hill, New Jersey - was a very wealthy town. Most of the residents were lawyers, doctors, businessmen, and entrepreneurs. "At that time, I dreamed of settling down here." Come down."
Although his family's poverty led to an unpleasant experience with his classmates at school, Mark admitted that he "received a good education there" and it was at that time that he read novels about the tragic fate of black slaves before the American Civil War. "Uncle Tom's Cabin," "this great book" also made him "learn (to think) about his own responsibility to learn and digest a lot of American history." At the age of 18, he was admitted to the Berean Institute in Philadelphia to study business, but dropped out due to tuition and loan problems.
html When Mark first moved to Haddon Town 08 years ago (2016), he thought it was a good place to raise a family. It had a long history, a low cost of living, and many residents in the town went to Philadelphia or Cherry Hill to work as clients. Positions such as service, sales, tradesman, stockbroker.
love park in philadelphia.
But in recent years, he feels that "many people have moved away." During the economic downturn, many people have lost their jobs or need to work multiple jobs at the same time. At the same time, "crime will definitely be affected by the economic downturn," he said.
In Philadelphia, the bustling downtown is surrounded by suburbs of varying degrees of development. To the north, rich people live, and the environment and public security are relatively good. But on the south side, high crime rates and drug abuse are prominent.
Neil, a Cambodian-American, lives with his mother in South Philadelphia. Thirty years ago, they fled the war and settled in Philadelphia. The mother and son purchased this house in 2001 for US$20,000.
“South Philadelphia is still very dangerous.” Neil, who currently works for a communications company, recently told The Paper that gunshots can always be heard in the community where he lives every night, and robberies, murders, violent attacks, and sexual assaults are relatively common. Crime phenomenon, "However, the security in North Philadelphia has also begun to become bad", and there is a problem of drug proliferation.Kensington in the north-east "has lost hope, with many people leaving with their families and many houses being sold".
Neil recalled that when he first arrived in South Philadelphia, gangs would recruit students, and those who refused to join would be beaten. "The gang I joined was called the Bloods... but it was just my way of protecting myself as a normal student. (Later) most of my friends were already gang 'leaders' so they could protect me. I didn't pass the official I did not go astray, largely due to my mother's teachings."
Historically, Philadelphia was also known as the "City of Sanctuary." , many immigrants and refugees will take refuge here. In the 1990s, civil wars broke out in many countries, and the United States accepted refugees from these countries; many ethnic minority criminals also crossed the border from Mexico into the United States. Today, in addition to nearly 40% black people, Philadelphia also has 15% Hispanics.
"For safety, I bought a gun (with a firearms license). The door at home is a metal door, and metal bars are also installed on the doors and windows." Neal said.
Jackson, a Chinese lawyer who also lives in Philadelphia, blames the drug epidemic on high unemployment and border (immigration) problems, and government policy is one of many reasons. Jackson became a naturalized U.S. citizen in 2019 and registered as a Republican voter, but chose to support the Democratic Party in 2020 and 2024.
On October 27, during a stop at a Puerto Rican restaurant in North Philadelphia, U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Harris stated that she would establish a "Puerto Rico Working Group" and, if elected, would assist homeownership and small businesses by increasing federal funding. She also detailed Wins support from black and Latino voters by outlining plans to help families "build intergenerational wealth." 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden won 81% of key votes in Philadelphia, accounting for more than 10% of the statewide vote.
On the issue of border immigration, Trump is even tougher, not only calling for the deportation of 15 million immigrants, but also for "remaining in Mexico" (Note: "Immigration Protection Agreement", a policy that forces immigrants seeking U.S. asylum in Mexican border cities , pending a U.S. court hearing on an asylum application). Such remarks also earned him constant applause at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.
Mark was at the Trump rally in Butler, before the shooting happened.
html On July 13, Mark happened to be at the rally. He has participated in 32 Trump supporter rallies this year. "As he continued to talk to us about immigration, the first shot was fired." Mark recalled that the bullet grazed Trump's head at close range.The economic downturn and deteriorating social security are intertwined with the increasingly polarized political atmosphere during the election season, and the impact on daily life has become increasingly apparent.
“My white neighbor was a teacher,” Mark recalled. “A few months ago we were blaming each other, and he said I was on the wrong side and I needed to think about it. What did I mean? Are you talking about this? Call me stupid, but I have my own opinion. He said, 'It's not your fault, you must be uneducated.' Their logic is that I am not well educated, so I support Trump."
Mark. Post Trump’s face on car windows.
Recently, Mark posted a complaint on social platforms that someone printed photos of him and other Trump supporters and posted them on a tree outside in an attempt to discredit him.
Despite encountering multiple armed robberies, Neil insisted that he would not leave Philadelphia, "Philadelphia is my home, my friends, my family, we all have memories here...I will not abandon this city." ." He said, and "housing prices are still rising, and now my house can be sold for about $357,000."
"Things that people desperately lack"
Sheffield, a small town located more than 300 kilometers northwest of Philadelphia, is what people think of as the "rust" zone. Since the 1980s, the manufacturing and energy industries have declined, resulting in massive unemployment. Young people have continued to migrate out to the sunbelt in the south, such as Georgia, and the population has continued to shrink.
“The rural areas in the north and west of (Pennsylvania) are experiencing population decline, and not many people are moving into these areas, and these areas also happen to be very conservative areas.” Professor Berrick of Muhlenberg College recently told The Paper News, "That means the changes are actually starting to work in favor of Democrats and against Republicans."
But there's another side to the story. Lancaster County, a well-known agricultural county in the southeastern part of the country bordering Maryland, is 100 kilometers away from Philadelphia and is home to the largest Amish community in the United States.
html In September, the American media captured this scene: the small town of Ephrata in Lancaster County ushered in the float parade of the 89th Ephrata Expo. As the parade came to an end, the crowd in the courtyard of local resident Brian's residence began to boo the Democratic float, but the jeers were much less than before.According to locals, Ephrata was originally very "conservative and right-leaning", but the situation has changed recently due to the arrival of more new immigrants. "In another 10 years, the number of new immigrants may exceed the number of locals." Bryan said.
As the population of rural counties in western and northern Pennsylvania gradually declines, the southeastern region of the state is booming. The industry that employs the most people in Lancaster is not agriculture, but health care and social assistance (43,461 people), followed by manufacturing (42,306 people) and retail trade (33,342 people).
At the same time, the relatively low cost of living and Pennsylvania's unique tax system have attracted many retirees from other places.
The median home price in Lancaster is approximately $200,000, which is lower than the national average, while food, health care, transportation and other living expenses are in line with the national average. Here, elderly communities with an average age of over 55 are expanding rapidly. 138 retirement community centers have been established locally, 5 of which have exceeded 1,000 residents.
In Lancaster, the city's history of immigrant asylum has also boosted its minority population. Christian groups have resettled thousands of refugees there for decades, including Cambodians, Somalis, Cubans and Bhutanese. In February 2024, the Lancaster City Council unanimously passed an ordinance prohibiting local police and any city officials from questioning an individual’s immigration status unless required by state or federal law or court order, or reasonably justified in the course of a criminal investigation. necessary.
The Hispanic population is growing, and while whites without college degrees still make up the majority of the county's adult population, that share declined between 2012 and 2022. The number of college graduates, retirees and working professionals has increased by thousands.
Politics Department Professor Burrick believes that in this year’s general election, the gap between voters with college degrees and voters without college degrees may be greater than in previous elections.
"People with college degrees overwhelmingly support Harris and the Democrats, while people without college degrees are more likely to support Trump and the Republicans," Berlick said.
The population in some areas of Pennsylvania is growing, and they tend to be highly educated groups. These wealthier suburbs are located in southeastern Pennsylvania, near the Maryland border.
The Pew Charitable Trusts of the United States has also focused on this trend this year. Its latest report shows that more than one-third of Philadelphia citizens aged 25 and above have a bachelor's degree. The percentage of people with bachelor's degrees is at an all-time high, but this is not reflected in their wages.
Northampton County, which is more than 60 kilometers away from Philadelphia and more than 90 kilometers away from New York, is located in the Lehigh Valley of the Appalachian Mountains. It is now attracting attention from the outside world because of its title of "weather vane" in the general election and has become a swing state. Key swing counties.
In 2016, Northampton voters changed their attitude of supporting the Democrats in 2008 and 2012 and switched to the Republicans. Four years later, Biden won Northampton County and successfully won Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes. Statistics show that every presidential candidate since 1948 has won the county's votes.
This was also the headquarters of Bethlehem Steel Company, the second largest steel production company in the United States. It has been a representative of American industrial manufacturing since the early 19th century. In recent years, some New York and Philadelphia residents have flocked here in pursuit of affordable housing and better neighborhoods. Meanwhile, the Northampton County city of Bethlehem and neighboring Allentown also have a growing Hispanic population — mostly from Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Since the 1990s, these newcomers have helped revive local population growth, stabilized the real estate market and provided labor for emerging industries such as warehousing and transportation.
Northampton's electorate includes older whites, farmers, and suburbanites who are more concerned about social issues, education, and tax policy. Professor Berwick is from here. He analyzed, "There are white working groups here, as well as cities such as Easton and Bethlehem, as well as suburbs, rural areas and several universities. Northampton County is located between New York City and Philadelphia. It is a transportation hub and has many residents. Blue collar workers in manufacturing.”
In 2022, manufacturing continued to account for the largest share of the region’s economy, generating $8.4 billion in gross domestic product. During the Biden administration, manufacturing employment in the Lehigh Valley reached its highest level since 2005, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In January this year, the number of people employed in this industry was 41,200. During the Trump administration, this number peaked at about 40,000, before the global pandemic led to massive layoffs.
Berwick believes that the diverse population composition is an important reason why Northampton has a referential election result. His direct feeling is that the number of emails, campaign advertisements and door knocks this year is greater than in previous elections.
Regarding diversity and inclusion in elections, Mark, a black man from Philadelphia, also has his own views and insistence. “Eight years ago, it was a tradition in American culture not to interfere with who others voted for.” He said, “But now, It's become a trend to interfere with others...not to try to get me to change my mind, but to try to understand who I am."
"I think that's something people are sorely lacking."
