Reporter of Every Journal: Song Meilu Editor of Every Journal: Dong Xingsheng The total box office of National Day movies in 2024 was 2.104 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23%. On October 8, the "2024 National Day Movie Data Insight Report" (hereinafter referred to as th

Daily reporter: Song Meilu Daily editor: Dong Xingsheng

The total box office of National Day movies in 2024 was 2.104 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23%. On October 8, the "2024 National Day Movie Data Insight Report" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") released by Maoyan Research Institute disclosed this result.

On the same day, Oriental Fortune Choice showed that the film and television concept sector index rose by 7.29%, with the share prices of 57 companies rising. Among them, the share price of Huayi Brothers rose by 19.86%, ranking among the top in the entire film and television concept, and the share price of Bona Pictures rose by 5.15%.

As an important schedule throughout the year, this year's National Day schedule has been subject to constant turmoil. First, the "collapse" of "749 " caused heated discussions, and two more movies were withdrawn one after another. Finally, according to the above report, the top five films at the box office during the National Day season in 2024 are "Volunteers: Battle of Life and Death" with 853 million yuan, "Road to Fire" with 358 million yuan, "749 Bureau" with 356 million yuan, "Panda Project" 214 million yuan, " Crisis Route " 191 million yuan.

Many securities companies said that the lack of high-anticipation movies and blockbuster movies to stimulate the market is the main reason for dragging down the National Day box office.

reaches its peak on the first day, but lacks stamina
needs more popular works to boost the market rise

The above-mentioned "report" shows that the total box office of National Day movies in 2024 will be 2.104 billion yuan, with an average daily box office of 300 million yuan and a total number of moviegoers The number of users was 52.09 million, and the proportion of high-frequency movie-watching users has increased year by year. Judging from the box office, the performance of the National Day holiday this year was not as good as that of the same period last year. The total box office and daily average box office both declined year-on-year, down 23% and 12% respectively.

Picture source: Screenshot of "2024 National Day Movie Data Insight Report"

Overall, the types of films released during the National Day holiday this year are diverse, with a total of 10 films, covering various types such as war, science fiction, comedy, action, crime, song and dance, etc. However, neither the highly anticipated science fiction film "749 Game" nor the comedy "'s hit Good Guys " met the audience's expectations.

Therefore, this National Day file has insufficient stamina. The "Report" shows that there was an obvious peak of movie viewing on October 1st. The box office on that day was the highest in the past three years. However, the box office declines on the 2nd to 4th days of the holiday were the highest in the past six years.

Picture source: Screenshot of "2024 National Day Movie Data Insight Report"

Maoyan Entertainment market analyst Lai Li said that during the pre-sale stage, several films such as "Volunteers: Battle of Life and Death", "Road to the Fire" and "749 Bureau" due to The participation of popular actors has boosted the pre-release popularity of the film to a certain extent, and also allowed the film to maintain a leading advantage in the pre-sales stage after its release. However, as the word-of-mouth of the films has been released one after another, some films have experienced a certain degree of box office decline, indicating that the post-release box office trend still needs the support of the original word-of-mouth.

Especially the science fiction masterpiece "749 Bureau", which director Lu Chuan spent many years creating, has aroused the audience's expectations before its release. From pre-sale to the first day of release, "749 Bureau" is far ahead among the 10 new films. During the holidays, On the first day, it contributed 170 million yuan in box office to the market. But then, its reputation declined sharply, causing the box office to "collapse". The box office dropped by 55% the next day. By October 7, the box office was only over 8 million yuan, with a Douban score of 4.2.

The war film "Volunteers: Battle of Life and Death" took over the traffic of "749 Bureau" and achieved a lead, eventually becoming the schedule champion with a box office of 853 million yuan. This film is the second part of director Chen Kaige's "Volunteer Army" trilogy.

In addition, " Only Green ", which did not have an advantage in the initial film schedule, relied on its good reputation to reverse the decline at the end of the National Day release, with a Douban score of 8.0.

Another phenomenon worth noting is that two movies were temporarily withdrawn when the market was not very popular. On October 3, the animated film " Pipilu and Lu Xixi: 309 Darkroom " announced that it would be rescheduled for the New Year, saying that "the schedule environment is fiercely competitive, leaving too little space for our children's movies"; on the same day, " 出入出" "Ping An " also announced its withdrawal from the National Day release, saying that "the film encountered unprecedented difficulties and challenges during its release."

Lai Li believes: "The audience still has a high demand for watching movies during big schedules. Watching movies during holidays has become everyone's daily habit, but the industry needs to come up with more novel, high-quality, and discussion-worthy films to give back to the audience. , this requires that our movies should not only be topical and entertaining, but also have excellent word-of-mouth quality and withstand the evaluation and even criticism of the audience. In addition, there still need to be more movies in a big schedule like the National Day release. The emergence of popular works will drive market enthusiasm and audience enthusiasm, thereby boosting the rise of the market.

Film and television concept stocks generally rose on the first day after the holiday
Huayi Brothers rose 19.86%, ranking among the top film and television stocks

The first increase after the holiday. On the trading day, as the market rose, the stock prices of A-share film and television listed companies also rose. After the market closed on October 8, Oriental Fortune Choice showed that the film and television concept sector index rose 7.29%, with 57 stocks rising, and 6 stocks falling.

Falling film and television stocks include China Film, Wanda Film and Beijing Culture, which fell 0.41%, 1.12% and 1.93% respectively.

In addition, on October 8, the stock prices of some Hong Kong-listed film and television companies also fell sharply. Among them, China Ruyi fell 11.21%.

From the perspective of specific producers and distributors, among the four films with high market popularity, China Film and Bona Pictures participated in the production of "Volunteers: Battle of Life and Death"; the producers of "749 Bureau" are Huayi Brothers, Beijing Culture, etc.; "Road to the Fire" is backed by Lianrui Pictures, Hengdian Film and Television, China Film, etc.; "Crisis Route" is co-produced by Hong Kong-listed companies Universal Entertainment Culture and Maoyan Entertainment.

Image source: Maoyan Professional Edition

On the first trading day after the holiday, among the listed companies participating in the production of the top movies in the schedule, Huayi Brothers rose 19.86%, ranking at the forefront of the entire film and television stocks, and Bona Pictures rose 5.15%. It is worth noting that since May this year, Bona Pictures’ stock price once dropped to around 4 yuan, and has now risen to 5.51 yuan per share.

CICC Securities research report commented: "This time there are a larger number of National Day movies, the box office performance is more balanced, and the head effect is weakened. The total market shares of the top five channel theaters and film investment companies are 48.4% and 27.0% respectively. Both have declined year-on-year. We judge that the current competitive landscape of theaters is relatively stable. "

Multiple securities research reports stated that the lack of high-anticipation movies and top movies' traction on the market is the main reason for dragging down the National Day box office, but they also expressed the need for docking. The movie market is promising at the box office.

Judging from the reserve of subsequent movies, in terms of imported films, the "Harry Potter" IP series movies will be re-released, "Joker 2: Double Paranoia", " Venom: The Last Dance ", " SpongeBob SquarePants: Rescue Beachcomber" Well-known overseas IPs such as "Fort " will be released one after another; in terms of domestic films, a series of highly anticipated films such as "Fire on the Plain", "Feng Shen 2", "Nezha 2", "Legend of the Condor Heroes" and "Jiangyuan Lane" To be finalized.

In a research report, CICC Securities lowered its neutral forecast for the market box office for 2024 to 45 billion yuan, and suggested paying attention to the pace of 2025 Spring Festival movies. "We believe that the supply of high-quality content remains a key factor in accelerating the recovery of the industry and boosting movie-viewing demand. The gradual recovery of top content supply and consumer movie-viewing demand is expected to promote the recovery of the market.”

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