Every reporter: Bi Yuanyuan Every editor: Zhang Haini Before the National Day, A-shares ended strongly. On the first day of the National Day holiday, the film market reported another good news. According to Beacon Professional Edition, as of 19:45 on October 1, the box office of

Every reporter: Bi Yuanyuan Every editor: Zhang Haini

Before the National Day, A-shares ended strongly. On the first day of the National Day holiday, the film market reported another good news.

According to Beacon Professional Edition, as of 19:45 on October 1, the box office of new films in the 2024 National Day season (including screenings and pre-sales) exceeded 600 million yuan. As of 21:00 on October 1, the box office on the first day of the National Day season was 477 million yuan, exceeding the box office on the first day of the National Day season in 2023 (431 million yuan). Judging from the box office, "49 " ranked first with 168 million yuan.

Rao Shuguang, president of the China Film Critics Society, said in an interview with a reporter from the "Daily Economic News": "In a sense, it can be said that the rise in the stock market has become a divine assist in pushing up the box office of the National Day movie market. The box office on the first day of the National Day holiday If it can exceed 500 million yuan, it will bring more confidence to the industry. The total box office of

"749 Bureau" and " Volunteer Army: Battle of Life and Death " is around 150 million yuan, ranking first and first in the box office list. Second, " Road to Fire " followed closely, with a total box office of about 70 million yuan.

Although none of the 10 new films released during the National Day holiday have been rated on Douban, some "negative reviews" have already flocked to "749 Bureau". Film market analyst "Liancheng Yiju" said frankly: "During such a big National Day schedule, there will be a large number of passers-by who will enter the venue. They don't pay much attention to word-of-mouth, so the next focus is to see whether this group of people can continue to produce. "

"749 Bureau" counterattacks, but its reputation is suspected of "collapse"?

has experienced a frustrating summer season. The start of this year’s National Day season has exceeded the expectations of industry insiders.

The first is the number of released films. The 10 new films cover war, action, science fiction, comedy, song and dance, animation and other types and themes.

Among them, "Volunteers: Battle of Life and Death" is the second part of the "Volunteers" trilogy directed by Chen Kaige, starring Zhu Yilong, Xin Baiqing, Zhang Zifeng, Zhu Yawen, etc.; "749 Bureau" is a science fiction film directed by Lu Chuan, starring Wang Junkai, Starring Miao Miao, Zheng Kai and others; "Road to Fire" is a crime drama film directed by Wubai and starring Xiao Yang and Zhao Liying.

In addition, there are also films such as "Panda Project" starring Jackie Chan and Wei Xiang, " Crisis Route " starring Andy Lau, Zhang Zifeng, and Qu Chuxiao, and " hit Good Guys " starring Ge You and Li Xueqin.

The three films "Volunteers: Battle of Life and Death", "Crisis Route" and " Safe Entrance and Exit" were released on September 30, "snapping" the National Day schedule. Nearly two days have passed, but "749 Games" has taken the lead in bucking the trend and breaking through.

"Daily Economic News" reporter saw on the Beacon Professional Edition that as of 20:30 on October 1, "Volunteers: Battle of Life and Death" accounted for 22.5% of the film schedule, the highest among all films, "749 Bureau" and "Road to Fire" accounted for 20.9% and 17.6% respectively. However, judging from the attendance rate, the attendance rate of "749 Games" reached 33.1%, far exceeding the 20.9% and 16.2% of "Volunteers: Battle of Life and Death" and "Road to Fire".

"Liancheng Yijian" analyzed to the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that since the pre-sale, "749 Bureau" has become a "dark horse". "At the beginning, no one would think that the pre-sale box office of this movie could (rank) first. After all, the movie has been delayed for so long, and Lu Chuan has also been burdened with a lot of controversy."

Rao Shuguang believes that the accumulation before the release of "749 Bureau" It has attracted many years of attention, and at the same time, the theme of the movie is highly revealing, making the audience feel fresh, surprising and exciting.

""749 Bureau" is mainly aimed at fan groups, mainly young people. It has been extended to the summer season and there is no gap for young people." The person in charge of a well-known theater chain also analyzed the audience of "749 Bureau" to reporters.

However, there is still a question mark as to whether the box office surge on the first day of the National Day season of "749 Bureau" can be extended to the entire National Day period."Liancheng Yikui" observed that although the new National Day movies have not been released on Douban platform, the movie homepage of "749 Bureau" has been occupied by "one-star negative reviews": "It's really unlucky to watch this during the holidays" and "It's hard to have such a review" "Lu Chuan, I'm so disappointed in you!"

"In terms of entertainment, "749 Bureau" is indeed a National Day movie. The movie is relatively entertaining and can satisfy the entertainment needs of some people. However, you can see many traces of other movies in this movie. Secondly, the story concept of "749 Bureau" is a bit outdated, mainly because of its stamina. Now, can we take the black and red route?" "Liancheng Yibri" thinks.

’s first-day box office exceeded that of the same period last year, but veterans such as Jackie Chan and Andy Lau “fall behind”?

As of 21:00 on October 1, the box office on the first day of the National Day season was 477 million yuan, while the box office on the first day of the National Day season in 2023 was 431 million yuan.

"Daily Economic News" reporter learned that industry insiders were previously worried about the performance of this year's National Day holiday. Based on the box office data on September 30 and October 1, the platform has raised its expectations for the total box office for this year’s National Day holiday.

According to reporter statistics, the highlight of the National Day season was in 2019, with the total box office reaching 4.466 billion yuan. From 2020 to 2023, the total box office of the National Day period was 3.967 billion yuan, 4.389 billion yuan, 1.499 billion yuan and 2.736 billion yuan respectively.

Guolian Securities research report believes that looking back on the National Day period over the years, top theme movies have become the mainstay of the box office. From 2019 to 2021, the box office scale has climbed from the previous level of 2 billion yuan to the level of 4 billion yuan, mainly due to the concentrated release of supply-side theme blockbusters. In the past three years, films with a box office of more than 1 billion yuan during the National Day period include "My Hometown and Me" and "Captain of China" in 2019, "My Hometown and Me" and "Jiang Ziya" in 2020, and "Me and My Hometown" and "Jiang Ziya" in 2021. Changjin Lake 》. After 2022, due to the lack of top content on the supply side, the National Day box office will fall back to the range of 1.5 billion to 3 billion yuan.

"Based on current market feedback, this year's National Day box office is expected to catch up with 2023. However, the first-day box office was produced without the influence of word-of-mouth. After today's word-of-mouth gradually ferments, the subsequent impact will be more critical." "Liancheng is fragile" said.

"Liancheng Yibri" who has watched many films further pointed out: "The overall performance of "Volunteers: Battle of Life and Death" is relatively stable. After all, it has the advantage of size and is more in line with the festival atmosphere; there are other things that have exceeded expectations before. "Road to Fire" has a reputation as one of the most outstanding live-action films except "Only Green". The follow-up will depend on whether the "revenge movie" can have a long-term reputation; "Crisis Line" can be regarded as a movie in a sense. Action blockbusters can satisfy the entertainment needs of some people; "Panda Project" starring Jackie Chan does not have much expectations in terms of reputation, but what is surprising is that this film replaced the other two animated films. It has become the most suitable movie for parents and children to watch during the National Day period. "

In big periods such as the National Day period and the Spring Festival period, the winners can get gratifying box office results, while the losers often end up in disgrace.

was released in the last two days. The box office of "Safety in and Out" directed by Liu Jiangjiang and starring Xiao Yang, Ayunga, and Guli Nazha just exceeded 12 million yuan. You know, " Life Events " directed and written by Liu Jiangjiang has broken 6 film history records and won 1.7 billion yuan at the box office. Zhu Yilong even became the best actor in Golden Rooster and Hundred Flowers with his role as "Mo Sanmei" winner.

From " Mr. Red Carpet " in the Spring Festival season to "Breaking Good Guys" in the National Day season, director Ning Hao, who is good at "black humor", "missed for the second time." In fact, "Breaking Good Guys" is the third collaboration between directors Ge You and Ning Hao after "My Motherland and Me" and "My Hometown and Me", continuing to tell the story of "Zhang Beijing". However, the reality is grim. On the first day of the National Day release, the screening rate of "Breaking Good Guys" was less than 5%, and the box office did not exceed 10 million yuan. Currently, Maoyan Professional Edition's total box office forecast for "Breaking Good Guys" is 50.57 million yuan.

"749 Bureau", "Volunteers: Battle of Life and Death" and "Road to Fire", which are leading the box office, all star the new generation of popular movie stars, such as Wang Junkai, Zhu Yilong, Zhao Liying, etc., so "Panda Project", "Crisis Route", " Is it because Jackie Chan, Andy Lau, and Ge You have lost their box office appeal that "Breaking Good Guys" has fallen behind?

In this regard, "Liancheng Yibri" believes that the problem does not lie in the lack of box office appeal of the above movie stars, but mainly in their conservative ways, resulting in a lack of understanding of the real market forces, including young people. Enthusiasm for watching movies.

The stock market has soared, and movies have benefited.

Although the box office performance on the first day of National Day was acceptable, the healthy development of the film market requires the continuous entry of high-quality films. Chen Lin, an investor in

Yuemo Cinema, told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that it has become normal for cinemas to rely on large schedules, and the turnover of funds depends on schedules. "If the total box office for this National Day period does not meet expectations, I estimate that many cinemas will collapse."

Chen Lin observed that the film market has been tepid since this year's Spring Festival period. After the more than two-month-long summer season, which had high hopes, came to a dismal end, some cinemas have defaulted on film payments to distributors due to failure to pay rent, and have subsequently had their keys suspended by the distributors.

The person in charge of the above-mentioned well-known theater chain said that the number of moviegoers is gradually decreasing and ticket prices continue to be high, rejecting many movie fans. "Although many films are 'family fun,' it will take time for everyone to regain confidence." The performance of

's National Day release is also crucial to the film company. The Beacon Professional Edition shows that behind the 10 new films are many well-known film and television companies: behind "749 Bureau" are Huayi Brothers, Beijing Culture, Tencent Pictures, etc.; behind "Volunteers: Battle of Life and Death" are China Film, Bona Pictures Industry, Huayi Brothers, iQiyi, etc.; behind "Road to Fire" are Lianrui Pictures, Hengdian Pictures, China Film, etc.

Rao Shuguang told the reporter of "Daily Economic News": "The stock market has surged in the past few days, boosting everyone's confidence in the future economy and increasing everyone's wealth. Cultural consumption and movie consumption will also increase."

"I personally believe that the total box office for the National Day period will be close to the total box office for the National Day period in 2023. If more viewers are willing to go to the cinema, the total box office may exceed last year. In the final analysis, only when the audience has money in their pockets can they spend more on cultural consumption and movies. There is greater spending on consumption," Rao Shuguang further analyzed.

"Everyone's attention to movies is like the attention to the stock market. As long as it rises, everyone will come back to take a look." Chen Lin said, but after the National Day holiday, the film market may return to a "cooling period" again. . "The National Day season is of key significance to us, not only in terms of box office, but also in terms of survival. But this year's total box office may not reach 80% of that in 2023."

"Liancheng Yi Jian" believes that we still have to shoot more first Commercial blockbusters that are highly entertaining can support the main market and draw passers-by into the theater, otherwise nothing else can be discussed. "We must not ignore and underestimate visual effects blockbusters. This genre is still the most marketable."

Guotai Junan Research Report shows that with the help of movie supply recovery and consumer subsidies, the National Day and fourth quarter box office is expected to achieve year-on-year growth .

Guolian Securities Research Report has recommended focusing on the 2025 Spring Festival. "We believe that with the release of diversified supply in the National Day season in 2024 and the successive release of many blockbuster sequels after the Spring Festival in 2025, the audience's willingness to watch movies is expected to be further stimulated and promote the prosperity of the cinema chain industry. Head Cinema Online and ticketing platforms are expected to benefit from the core.”

Daily Economic News