Recently, China and the Philippines launched a new round of consultations on the South China Sea issue. It can be said that how the Xianbin Reef issue will end has become the top priority of this meeting. However, the Marcos government's little move this time is really intri

Recently, China and the Philippines launched a new round of consultations on the South China Sea issue. It can be said that how the Xianbin Reef issue will end has become the top priority of this meeting.

However, The Marcos government’s small actions this time are really intriguing. Before they sent people to Beijing to discuss it, they asked the armed forces to formulate so-called "contingency measures" in advance. You must know that this move is not just for show, but a real preparation. Once the negotiation cannot be reached, it will cause trouble!

Based on what the Marcos government has done on the South China Sea issue, it is actually foreseeable that the negotiations will not progress smoothly. China's briefing only contained a few sentences, saying that the two sides had a "frank and in-depth" exchange of views on maritime-related issues, especially the Xianbin Reef issue, and agreed to maintain communication through relevant diplomatic channels.

At first glance, this statement sounds really official; the Philippines side is also concise and concise. Needless to say, everyone knows that there is basically no substantive progress in this discussion.

What is even more worrying is that since China and the Philippines reached a "temporary arrangement" on the Ren'ai Reef issue, Xianbin Reef has once again become a hot spot in the dispute between the two countries, and the intensity of the confrontation has only increased this time.

In less than a month, three ship collisions occurred. China has repeatedly stressed that it will take measures to maintain the seriousness and effectiveness of the Declaration of Common Conduct in the South China Sea. However, the Philippines seems to be feeling tremendous pressure and even suspects that China may forcibly tow away their illegally stranded ships.

After careful analysis, the Philippines is so tough largely because it feels that it has the support of the United States behind it. The day before the meeting between China and the Philippines, senior military officials from China and the United States also had a video call. Commander Paparo of the US Indo-Pacific Command claimed that China and US allies had several "dangerous interactions" in the South China Sea. , this is undoubtedly a show of goodwill to the Philippines and cheers them up.

In addition, Half a month ago, Paparo also said at a military forum in the Philippines that US warships are willing to escort the Philippines’ supply mission in the South China Sea.

As soon as these words came out, the top officials of the Philippine military immediately took advantage of the situation. Chief of Staff of the Philippine Armed Forces Brauner even threatened, "When facing China, the Philippines will no longer fight alone, but will actively seek cooperation with the United States, including the United States." Support from all sides.” This tone is, on the one hand, a tough stance to the country, and on the other hand, it is a gamble, hoping to force China to make concessions at the negotiating table.

However, this behavior of the Marcos government actually exposed their strategic short-sightedness. Indeed, the support from the United States looks very attractive on the surface, but if a critical moment comes, it is still unknown whether the United States will really help. You must know that the United States has its own interests to consider when it intervenes in the South China Sea issue, but if they are allowed to directly conflict with China, the probability of this is actually not high.

In fact, if the Philippines blindly relies on external forces, it will only put itself in a more passive situation. Recently, the Chinese Coast Guard has significantly strengthened its patrols near Xianbin Reef, making it impossible for Philippine fishing boats to approach, let alone deliver supplies to the illegally stranded Coast Guard vessels.

The Philippines even announced some time ago that the logistics support of their ships on Xianbin Reef is in jeopardy.

Although we draw on the experience of Second Thomas Shoal, the effect of airdrop is not satisfactory. On the contrary, it is easy to spread the risk of maritime disputes into the air, which is a complete rhythm of "drinking poison to quench thirst". However, the Philippine military still refuses to give up and is preparing to incite fishermen to cooperate with them in confrontation in the South China Sea. Its sinister intentions are clearly exposed.

Currently, China-Philippines relations are at a crossroads. The Philippines’ behavior of trying to “draw a bottom line” while talking is enough to show that they have not seriously thought about the future of China-Philippines relations.