At 24:00 on September 5, the refined oil price adjustment window will open again. Judging from the recent trend of international oil prices, institutions predict that there is a possibility that this round of oil price declines or will continue to be stranded. According to calcul

html At 24:00 on September 5, the refined oil price adjustment window will open again. Judging from the recent trend of international oil prices, institutions predict that there is a possibility that this round of oil price declines or will continue to be stranded.

According to calculations by the energy consulting agency Jinlianchuang, as of the ninth working day on September 4, the average price of the reference crude oil variety was US$76.36/barrel, with a change rate of -1.16%, and the corresponding domestic gasoline and diesel prices should be reduced by 60 yuan/barrel. tons; Longzhong Information refined oil analyst Liu Bingjuan predicts that the domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced to 55 yuan/ton, which happens to be near the 50 yuan/ton price adjustment red line, and oil prices may be reduced or stranded.

Since the beginning of this year, domestic oil prices have gone through seventeen rounds of adjustments, showing a pattern of "seven increases, six decreases, and four stranded", with the overall price rising more than falling. After the gains and losses offset each other, the standard gasoline and diesel products increased overall by 250 yuan/ton and 245 yuan/ton respectively during the year.

During the last round of price adjustment window period, due to the lack of obvious positive support on the demand side and the easing of geopolitical conflicts, the international oil price shock was weak and the oil price adjustment was stranded. Therefore, the retail price of No. 92 gasoline in most areas of the country has been below 8 yuan for a long time in recent days.

During this price adjustment cycle, the supply side has more influence on international oil prices. In the early stages of this price adjustment cycle, political unrest in Libya, a major oil producer in the Mediterranean region, led to the temporary closure of domestic oil fields and exports. Crude oil production once fell by more than 500,000 barrels per day. Amid market concerns, international oil prices rose sharply. However, according to Jin Lianchuang, Libyan Central Bank Governor Sadiq al-Kabir said on September 3 that there were “strong” signs that the political factions were close to reaching an agreement to resolve the dispute and stimulate vital economic growth. Important crude oil production resumes. The industry predicts that Libya's crude oil supply of more than 500,000 barrels per day may return to the market.

In addition, continued weakness on the demand side is also negative for oil prices. According to Longzhong Information, the traditional peak consumption season in the United States will end in early September, and the seasonal benefits will gradually dissipate. At the same time, the global economy and demand are weak, and the operating load of refineries in Asia and the United States is significantly lower than the same period last year, and the concerns of practitioners continue to grow.

"Whether oil prices will fall or be stranded on September 6 depends mainly on the fluctuation of international oil prices on the next working day." Liu Bingjuan said.

China Business News reporter noted that international crude oil prices have plummeted in the past two days due to the news that the supply risk of Libyan crude oil has been lifted. As of 12:55, the price of British Brent crude oil futures was at US$73.37/barrel, down 0.53%, and the price of US WTI crude oil futures fell below the US$70 mark, at US$69.91/barrel, down by 0.61%, both setting new lows for oil prices this year. .

Looking into the market outlook, many institutions believe that concerns about production increases and demand will continue unabated, and the next round of oil price cuts is more likely. Longzhong Information said that on the supply side, the geopolitical situation has not escalated yet, Libyan supply is about to recover, and the possibility of OPEC+ increasing production in October has not been eliminated. The superimposed economic and demand pressures will continue, and international oil prices may be weak in the short term.