Every reporter: Bi Yuanyuan Every editor: Wenduo
The total box office of the "Spring Festival" ended successfully with more than 8 billion yuan, and the A-share film and television media index also experienced strong growth on the first trading day of 2024. According to
wind data, as of the close of trading on February 19, the cultural media index (886041) achieved a significant increase of 5.21%. Compared with the enthusiastic atmosphere in the A-share market, the film and television media index in the Hong Kong stock market showed a decline of 1.28%. Among them, Maoyan Entertainment (hk01896.hk, stock price HK$8.43, market capitalization HK$9.762 billion), Alibaba Pictures (hk01060, stock price HK$0.45, market capitalization HK$13.27 billion), Huanxi Media (hk01003, stock price HK$0.58, market capitalization HK$2.121 billion), Major players such as China Ruyi (hk00136, stock price 1.65 Hong Kong dollars, market value 19.12 billion Hong Kong dollars) and other Spring Festival stalls all experienced significant declines.
Zhu Zhu, chief analyst of new consumption at Huaxin Securities Media, said in an interview with a reporter from the Daily Economic News that the positive sentiment during the Spring Festival will have a significant short-term impact on the market, but to fully evaluate the performance of the film and television market throughout the year, we need to pay attention to the summer vacation. The box office situation during key periods such as the New Year's Eve and National Day holidays, as well as the popularity of film supply.
was released with sora, and brokerage research reports also mentioned that they continue to be optimistic about the medium and long-term opportunities in the sector driven by new technologies. Enlight Media stated in the announcement of its 2023 annual performance preview that the rapid development of new technologies such as AI has provided strong support for the increase in production capacity of animated films, and the use of new technologies will also effectively reduce costs and increase efficiency.
Image source: Web page screenshot
The first trading day after the Spring Festival: the media sector collectively rose strongly
On the first trading day after the Spring Festival holiday, the A-share media sector collectively rose. Wind data shows that as of the close of trading on February 19, the cultural media index rose 5.21%. In terms of
stocks, Tangde Film and Television (sz300426, stock price 8.11 yuan, market value 3.283 billion yuan) and Shanghai Film (sh601595, stock price 22.76 yuan, market value 10.201 billion yuan) respectively achieved "20cm" and "10cm" daily limits.
Huanrui Century (sz000892, stock price 2.62 yuan, market value 2.57 billion yuan) rose 8.26%, Happy Blue Ocean (sz300528, stock price 7.31 yuan, market value 2.724 billion yuan), Ciwen Media (sz002343, stock price 4.54 yuan, market value 2.156 billion yuan) rose more than 7%.
Guangguang Media (sz300251, stock price 7.99 yuan, market value 23.44 billion yuan) and Huace Film and Television (sz300133, stock price 5.14 yuan, market value 9.772 billion yuan) rose more than 5%.
However, Wanda Film (sz002739, stock price 11.8 yuan, market value 25.717 billion yuan) and Huayi Brothers (sz300027, stock price 2.03 yuan, market value 5.632 billion yuan) fell 1.5% and 1.93% respectively.
At the same time, the Hong Kong stock market's film and television media index (887803) fell 1.28%, with Maoyan Entertainment, Alibaba Pictures, and Huanxi Media closing down 3.21%, 2.17%, and 6.45% respectively.
On the news, the National Film Administration released data on February 18 that the box office of the 2024 Spring Festival movie reached 8.016 billion yuan, setting a new Spring Festival box office record, with 163 million moviegoers.
The top four box office hits during this year's Spring Festival are "Hot and Furious", "Flying Life 2", "Bear Infested: Reverse Time and Space" and "Article 20". Among them, "Hot" won the top spot with a box office of 2.715 billion yuan. The box office differentiation during the period was obvious, with the first four films accounting for over 97% of the total box office.
Specifically, this year’s ticket purchasing platforms, film studios, etc. increased subsidies during the Spring Festival period, and the average ticket price dropped. Adding to the “lipstick effect”, the number of moviegoers increased significantly. Among them, the sinking market in the third and fourth tiers made a huge contribution, accounting for 53.5% of the box office. In addition, the average length of the top 4 box office films is 125 minutes, which is slightly less than before (2023 "River Red" 159 minutes, "The Wandering Earth 2" 173 minutes), driving an increase in the number of screenings.
China Post Securities analysis believes that most of the Spring Festival films use comedy as a carrier and radiate diverse themes. The top films present a "two super and two strong" pattern, with a significant Matthew effect, and the content involves racing, the legal system, the entertainment industry, and families with severe illnesses, etc. A variety of themes to meet the consumer needs of multiple age groups.
Zhu Zhu told the Daily Economic News reporter that the box office (excluding service fees) for the 2024 Spring Festival (the statistical caliber here only refers to the 8 days from New Year's Eve to the seventh day of the lunar month, which is different from other statistical calibers) is 6.82 billion yuan. , a slight year-on-year decline."The calculation data cycle of third-party media is slightly different from ours. We do not include service fees. The gratifying point is that the number of moviegoers has increased year-on-year, which highlights the resilience of moviegoing demand. However, the average movie ticket price has declined, so the total box office The performance (is) in line with expectations," Zhu Zhu said.
As for the sharp rise in film and television stocks on the 19th, Zhu Zhu believes that it is due to the strong emotional boost during the Spring Festival. Looking at the longer cycle, she believes that in 2024, we can pay attention to the performance of the summer vacation and National Day films, as well as the popularity of film supply.
The film and television industry will pick up significantly in 2023, and aigc technology will become an important driver.
As the Spring Festival comes to an end, another focus that has attracted much attention is the shocking release of Vincent Video's large model sora.
Western Securities stated that it is optimistic about the steady increase in demand for movie viewing and the changes in industry production efficiency caused by new technologies. In the long term, the video generation model sora may clarify the development direction of text-generated videos for the industry. In the next one to two years, creators will be able to use text instructions to generate long video materials that meet the requirements, saving shooting costs and helping to realize the film content creation paradigm. of innovation.
aigc With the arrival of a new era, the creative industry has also undergone revolutionary changes. In the field of ai + film and television/animation IP, listed companies such as Shanghai Film, Chinese Online, and Huace Film and Television have already made plans.
Recently, a number of A-share film and television companies disclosed their 2023 performance forecasts. Enlight Media, Jinyi Film and Television, Shanghai Film, Tangde Film and Television, Hengdian Film and Television, and China Film are all expected to achieve profits in 2023, while Bona Pictures and Huayi Brothers are expected to lose money.
Judging from the overall situation of the film and television industry, the overall recovery of the domestic film market in 2023 is obvious, and the summer and New Year's Eve box office set new historical records. The 2023 annual performance forecast released by
Shanghai Film stated that the company is expected to turn a loss into a profit in 2023, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 122 million to 146 million yuan. In 2022, Shanghai Film's net profit attributable to the parent company lost 328 million yuan.
Guangguang Media is also expected to turn a loss into a profit. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 will be 410 million yuan to 510 million yuan, and the loss in the same period in 2022 will be 713 million yuan.
company revealed that in terms of animated films, "Nezha: The Devil Boy Havoc in the Sea" and "Xiao Qian" are expected to be released in 2024. After years of accumulation and growth, the company's current production capacity of animated films continues to improve. The rapid development of new technologies such as AI has provided strong support for the increase in production capacity of animated films. The use of new technologies will also effectively reduce costs and increase efficiency.
On the evening of February 18, Enlight Media announced that the film "Article 20", which was mainly invested and distributed by the subsidiary, will be released on February 10. According to data from the National Film Funding Office, as of 24:00 on February 17, the film had been released for 8 days, and the cumulative box office revenue (including service fees) was approximately 1.342 billion yuan (the final settlement data may have errors). Enlight Media stated that as of February 17, the company's operating income from the film ranged from approximately 400 million yuan to 460 million yuan (the final settlement data may have errors).
Daily Economic News
