The end of the year is coming, and all things have passed.
This year is destined to be an extraordinary year, and it is also a year of frequent black swans.
From the closure of Silicon Valley Bank, triggering a wave of bank failures in Europe and the United States, to the United States suffering its second credit rating downgrade in history, Japan discharging nuclear sewage into the Pacific Ocean, and a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict erupting...
Every black swan takes off with its wings. The shock is enough to become a "thunder" that shakes the global market and stirs every nerve of people.
At the end of 2023, Gelonghui took stock of the many black swan events that occurred this year. Let’s take a look. Which event surprised you the most?
1. Silicon Valley Bank toppled "dominos"
Silicon Valley Bank went bankrupt, triggering a banking crisis in Europe and the United States.
On March 10, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDI) announced that Silicon Valley Bank was bankrupt and closed. This became the largest bank failure in the United States since the 2008 financial crisis.
U.S. bank stocks and technology stocks were hit hard as a result, and the three major stock indexes fell accordingly. After that, panic began to spread around the world.
In the United States, in addition to Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank also declared bankruptcy. Outside the United States, Credit Suisse, a bank with a history of 167 years, went bankrupt and was acquired by UBS for 3 billion Swiss francs.
The Silicon Valley Bank incident also triggered "major layoffs" in banks around the world. According to statistics from the Financial Times, in 2023, the world's 20 largest banks will lay off at least 61,905 people. Among them, about half of the layoffs came from Wall Street in the United States.
2. Twelve years later, the U.S. credit rating was downgraded again
The U.S. sovereign credit rating was downgraded, triggering a huge shock in the global market.
html On August 1, the international rating agency Fitch lowered the U.S. sovereign credit rating from aaa to aa+, and the outlook changed from negative to stable.This is the second time in the history of the United States that the credit rating has been downgraded. The last time was in August 2011. S&P announced that it would downgrade the U.S. sovereign credit rating from the highest level of aaa to aa+, and set the rating outlook as negative.
After the Fitch rating statement was released, it triggered shocks in global stock markets. U.S. stocks plunged, European and Australian stocks weakened, and Asian stock markets such as South Korea and Japan were weak across the board.
Even the stock god Warren Buffett came out to rescue the market and bought short-term U.S. debt.
3. Remember history! Japan's nuclear wastewater is officially discharged into the sea
Japan's nuclear wastewater is discharged into the sea, causing irreparable human tragedy.
On August 24 this year, the Japanese government ignored the opposition of the international community and forcibly started the discharge of Fukushima nuclear wastewater into the sea. What is even more worrying is that Tokyo Electric Power Company stated that the discharge into the sea will last for at least 30 years.
Calculations from the German Marine Science Research Institute show that radioactive materials will spread to most of the Pacific Ocean within 57 days from the date of discharge of Fukushima nuclear-contaminated water. Three years later, the United States and Canada will be affected by nuclear pollution. In 10 years, it will spread to the global sea.
The impact of Japan's nuclear wastewater cannot even be measured in any currency. It puts the global marine ecology and human health at risk from radiation pollution. And what will happen in the future, we cannot imagine.
4. A “strike gate” appeared in the U.S. auto industry
The three major auto companies went on strike, making the strike wave in the United States this year more intense than before.
html On September 15, the United Auto Workers (UAW) officially launched a strike against the "Big Three" - General Motors, Ford Motor and Stellantis Group.This is not only the first time that UAW has launched a strike against three major car companies at the same time in more than 80 years since its establishment, it is also the most violent strike movement in the United States this year.
This strike not only severely damaged the U.S. auto industry, but also caused huge losses to the U.S. economy. According to estimates from the American consulting firm Anderson Economic Group, the strike caused $9.3 billion in economic losses in the first five weeks.
5. A new round of "bloody fighting" broke out between Palestine and Israel.
The new round of conflict between Palestine and Israel has brought about an "unprecedented" humanitarian disaster.
On October 7, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) fired multiple rockets in Israel. Israel immediately declared a state of war and launched Operation Iron Sword against the Gaza Strip.
At present, this round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict has lasted for more than 80 days. The war has resulted in more than 20,000 deaths and more than 50,000 injuries.
The Israeli economy also suffered heavy losses as a result. Israeli media analyst Gad Lior predicts that Israel’s economic growth will drop to about 2.5% in 2023.
In addition, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has also caused an impact on the global supply chain, resulting in drastic fluctuations in energy prices, which has had a series of adverse effects on global economic stability and trade flows.
6. The new president made Argentina “shocked”
The world witnessed the economic experiment of the “Argentine version of Trump”.
On December 10, Javier Milay officially took office as President of Argentina. The new president has always been known for his radical views and words and deeds, so he has been called the "Argentine version of Trump."
As soon as Milai took office, he cut 9 of the 18 cabinet departments and actively devalued the Argentine currency peso by more than 50% in an attempt to use "shock therapy" to save the Argentine economy.
Since the issuance of the New Deal, 11 provinces in Argentina have declared a state of economic emergency. According to a report by Argentina's National Statistics Institute, the country's cumulative inflation rate in the first 11 months of this year has reached 148.2%, and the cumulative inflation rate in the past 12 months has exceeded 160%.
JPMorgan Chase predicts that Argentina’s inflation rate may rise to 210% by the end of 2023, and the inflation rate will remain high in 2024.
7. The grand finale at the end of the year - the fall of the Red Sea! The
giant has stopped sailing! Global shipping "arteries" are blocked.
In recent times, Yemen’s Houthi armed forces have repeatedly attacked ships in the Red Sea and nearby waters. Starting from December 15, global container shipping giants such as Maersk have suspended all container transportation through the Red Sea.
Shipping traffic in this sea area has been blocked, causing the Suez Canal, the "main artery" of global shipping, to "standstill."
However, ships are detoured and the voyage time is increased, which also leads to "increased freight rates". In addition, the Red Sea crisis has also hindered the transportation of bulk commodities such as oil, and the rising costs will eventually be passed on to consumers, which may lead to an increase in global inflation risks.
Summary
Throughout history, a "black swan" will suddenly come almost every year.
These emergencies are often unpredictable. Once they occur, they will inevitably have a profound impact on global economic and social activities.
However, crisis and opportunity always go hand in hand.
In the future, let us dance with the black swan and look for opportunities in crises.
looks forward to 2024!
