Chinanews.com, December 26 (Gong Hongyu, Zhongxin Finance and Economics) What trends will the economy have in 2023? How should future policy be exerted? At the "China Wealth Management 50 People Forum · 2022 Annual Conference" held from December 23 to 25, Yin Yanlin, Lou Jiwei, Zhu Guangyao and other guests spoke heavily on hot issues in economic development in 2023.
China Wealth Management 50 People Forum · 2022 Annual Meeting. Photo courtesy of the organizer
Yin Yanlin: my country's economy has survived the most difficult moment
Yin Yanlin, deputy director of the Office of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, pointed out that my country's economy has survived the most difficult moment. Looking ahead to next year, the economic development will face many difficulties and challenges, but the favorable factors for development will increase, and the economic operation is expected to improve as a whole.
Yin Yanlin mentioned that eight key directions must be grasped: first, vigorously boost market confidence, second, restore and expand consumption, third, effectively drive social investment, fourth, promote the healthy development of the real estate industry, and fifth, restart the development of traditional service industries Sixth, to speed up the construction of a modern industrial system, seventh, to attract and utilize foreign capital with greater efforts, and eighth, to effectively prevent and defuse major risks.
Lou Jiwei: In 2023, a higher economic growth target should be set, such as more than 5%
The "14th Five-Year Plan" proposes that by 2035per capita GDPreach the level ofmoderately developed countries. The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China made it clear that by 2035, "per capita GDP will reach a new level and reach the level of moderately developed countries."
Lou Jiwei, the former Minister of Finance, pointed out, “When the ‘14th Five-Year Plan’ proposed this goal, my country’s per capita GDP had just reached 10,000 US dollars. To reach the bottom line of moderately developed countries in 2035, the per capita GDP had to reach 20,000 US dollars , to achieve doubling, the average annual growth rate of GDP should reach 4.7%. Starting from the short-term expansion of employment and the realization of long-term goals, a relatively high economic growth target should be set in 2023, such as more than 5%. Quickly return to the growth level of 5%-6%
Zhu Guangyao, former vice minister of the Ministry of Finance, pointed out that by fully implementing the economic work guidelines determined by the Political Bureau meeting of the Central Committee, the Chinese economy will definitely improve in 2023 and quickly return to 5% -6% growth level.
He emphasized that we must attach importance to support for the real economy. Industrial policies need to be balanced with development and security, science and technology policies need to focus on self-reliance, social policies need to "secure" the bottom line of people's livelihood, coordinate these major policies, and make greater efforts to attract foreign direct investment, It is necessary to promote high-level opening up to the outside world, insist on hard work, and stimulate the vitality of the whole society to do business and start businesses, so that cadres dare to do things, local governments dare to venture, enterprises dare to do it, and the masses dare to pioneer.
Ning Jizhe: China's economic growth contribution rateto the worldeconomic growth11z is about 30%
Ning Jizhe, former deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, predicts that next year, with the implementation of macro policies , the epidemic period will pass and the With the recovery of the consumer market, my country's economy will usher in a pick-up in materialized development and restorative growth. China's economic growth contributes about 30% to world economic growth, and China's restorative growth will also slow down the global economic recession. If the Chinese economy grows by 6%, the world economy will grow by nearly 2%.
Ning Jizhe believes that Chinese-style modernization cannot follow the old path of some European and American countries to industrialize first, then de-industrialize, and then industrialize and re-manufacture. Incline to the virtual, guide all kinds of factor resources, especially financial resources, to gather in the real economy, and promote the manufacturing industry to shift from quantitative expansion to quality and quantitative improvement. At the same time, promote the deep integration of modern service industry with advanced manufacturing and modern agriculture.
Liu Yuanchun: Next year's economic growth will show a recovery trend of "low in the beginning, high in the middle, and stable in the end"
Liu Yuanchun, president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, said that under optimistic circumstances, the growth rate in 2023 can reach a level of about 6%, and under unfavorable circumstances The economic growth rate is about 4.8%. Next year's economic growth rate will show "low in the front, high in the middle and stable in the end"."The recovery trend. It is recommended to set the target of China's macroeconomic in the range of 5%-6% in 2023.
Liu Yuanchun mentioned that in 2023, investment is still the key to supporting the economy, and infrastructure is still the key A key point. But the infrastructure obviously needs to be fully converted from traditional infrastructure to new infrastructure, and it has been doing it for these years, and it will be concentrated in this direction next year. (End)
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