Editor's Note
Sickness comes like a mountain, and goes away like a spinning thread. In 2023, we still need to recuperate. When the trend is gradually becoming clear, managing "extreme uncertainty" is still the most important issue in 2023. In the long run, we urgently need to reshape the three consensuses.
Recently benefited from economic recovery and epidemic policy optimization, institutions are generally optimistic about the capital market in 2023. In the context of the "extreme uncertainty" of the current epidemic, believes that the asset allocation in 2023 follows the principle of cautious optimism, and the prevention of tail risks should still be the primary consideration.
First of all, we should pay attention to several "good" factors that the institutions will reach a consensus in 2023: First, China's "reopening" is a foregone conclusion, and a more open entry-exit quarantine policy may have a negative impact on A stock market Global investor expectations Generate more obvious support; Second, next year's macro environment will undergo significant marginal improvement, our simplified version of the investment clock points to the post-recession period, and it is important for investors to allocate stocks assets in the recovery cycle in advance A relatively rational early-running choice; The third is that China’s real estate cycle may improve in 2023. After the policy shifts, we are cautiously optimistic about the transaction heat of the real estate market in 2023, compared with 2022. Real estate is more important for other upstream sectors The support is worth looking forward to.
However, under the generally optimistic market environment, the tail risks in three aspects should not be ignored: First, the period of the epidemic's "breakthrough" is uncertain. According to the experience of other countries and regions in liberalization, it may take at least a quarter or so for the recovery of population mobility to be realized. Therefore, considering the larger area and population base of mainland China, the "scar effect" of the epidemic may be more persistent in the mainland, and to a certain extent, it will offset the positive expectations accumulated in China's "reopening" in the early stage; The second is The Fed's policy in 2023 will probably still focus on controlling inflation. This move may kill demand to a certain extent. Considering the new production capacity formed by the strong external demand between 2020 and 2022, the demand and vitality of China's industrial production in 2023 will be seriously affected and restrained; 3 But the severity of the Bank of Japan's government bond yield curve control of the YCC may be underestimated. The long-term sluggish economic growth combined with the previous long-term quantitative easing policy has made yen loans the best choice for carry trades. Therefore, the negative impact of the Bank of Japan's shift on the global asset market may be greater than investors expected The situation is even more serious.
Regarding the market rhythm and sector strategy in 2023: In terms of rhythm, we recommend paying attention to the inflection point of consumption data, consumption data can reflect the release process of actual domestic demand, and the rebound of social zero data can indirectly indicate that residents’ mobility has basically returned to normal , Excess savings can be released to a certain extent. In terms of plate allocation, can first focus on the concept of benefiting from the release of excess savings brought about by China's "reopening". After the epidemic turnaround, the travel chain sector (scenic spots, hotels, tax-free, and catering) that benefited from policy liberalization and is expected to complete ROE restoration deserves attention; secondly, you can pay attention to fiscal rigidity and under the dual pressures of finance and geopolitics. Comprehensive security concepts, geopolitical security-related sectors (military industry) and domestic self-controllable -related sectors (domestic components, digital infrastructure) are worthy of attention; third Considering that the previous period has been almost overdrawn and the valuation logic has changed significantly, It is recommended to cautiously allocate the technology growth sectors (, new energy vehicles, , semiconductors) that were oversold in the early stage to avoid risks.
In the year of catastrophe and epidemic, it is the wisdom of our ancestors to recuperate and rest with the people. Managing "extreme uncertainty" is the most important issue in 2023. In the long run, we need to reshape three consensuses: The first is to reshape the consensus on economic growth. Economic data is the general trend at the macro level, but pessimistic at the micro level. Economic growth is crucial, not optional. This is common sense, and it is easy to be ignored or even given up. The second is the consensus on reshaping the social order. In the past three years, we have experienced too many unconventional means of social management and economic management. With the optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies, this emergencyThe system should withdraw from the stage of history, let alone spread to the economic field. Reshaping the normal social order is crucial to each of us. The third is to reshape the consensus of international rules. From the start of the trade war in 2018 to the present five years, people have gradually adapted to and faced up to the changes in the new international rules. Perhaps saying goodbye to the sense of tragedy and victim mentality, looking at the world head-on, relaxing, accepting various values and adjusting one's cognition is the proper attitude to deal with the current changes in the global landscape.
Recently benefiting from economic recovery and optimization of epidemic policies, domestic and foreign institutions are generally optimistic about the A-share market in 2023. Goldman Sachspublished a research report in early November 2022, pointing out:"A full reopening of the country could drive a 20% increase in Chinese stocks as restrictions are lifted", corresponding to the Shanghai Composite Index around 3600 points. However, considering the compilation of the Shanghai Composite Index, using the CSI 300 to refer to the so-called "Chinese stocks" seems to be more in line with the definition of Goldman Sachs. Based on the report release date, the 20% increase also means that Goldman Sachs will price the CSI 300 Index at Above 4300 points.
In fact, it is difficult for investors to see the "foregone conclusion" of 2023 in the short term. The National Bureau of Statistics has disclosed the economic statistics for November on the morning of December 15. Among them, the year-on-year growth rates of industrial added value above designated size and total retail sales of consumer goods are lower than market expectations. In fact, the social financial data in November is not the most important window to observe 2023. What is important is that after the implementation of the "new ten measures" for epidemic prevention and control, the financial data performance between December and January can be analyzed. Responses of residents and business sectors to the optimization of epidemic policies. The same goes for economic data. Under the current background of "extreme uncertainty", we believe that A shares asset allocation in 2023 follows the principle of cautious optimism, and the prevention of tail risks should still be the primary consideration.
01
Several "beneficial" factors for 2023
(1) China's "reopening" is a foregone conclusion
The State Council's joint defense and joint control mechanismupdated the "New Ten Measures" for epidemic prevention on December 7th, and the official announced that it will withdraw from all nucleic acid testing At the same time, , nucleic acid inspection for passing through different places and nucleic acid inspection for entering and leaving public places officially opened the period of comprehensive optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies; the impact of the epidemic on the market has also been divided into two. Before optimization, there has always been a strong correlation between the rise and fall of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index on each trading day in Q1-Q3 of 2022 and the number of new confirmed cases in mainland China on that day, which also means that in " dynamic clearing " In the era of anticipation, A-share market participants pay more attention to the actual results of prevention and control, that is, the number of infections. However, with the gradual optimization of the epidemic prevention and control, especially after the "Twenty Measures" clearly changed the entry quarantine to "5+3", although China's international entry quarantine has not yet been fully opened, market participants are still interested in China's "reopening". "The expectations were there. The confirmation of this expectation is after Q4: After the "New Ten Rules", the number of newly diagnosed people in some areas has been partially distorted, and it is difficult to reflect market expectations through new confirmed cases, but reflect the optimized epidemic situation and the logic of the capital market One of the confirming indicators is the actual flight situation of domestic flights, which can at least represent the current actual opening situation to a certain extent.
The current market’s concerns about epidemic prevention mainly lie in the policy orientation of balancing epidemic prevention and control with economic development, but this concern has been overcome to a certain extent. The 2022 Central Economic Work Conference is of great significance, and it has achieved "putting order out of chaos" in many fields. Stable growth and economic development have once again become a consensus. The top management has also clearly requested that we start with supporting the development of the private economy , including putting down the requirement for equal treatment of state-owned and private enterprises from the system and law, and encouraging and supporting the private economy and development and growth of private enterprises from the policy and public opinion. On the whole, the epidemic in 2023 will still be one of the most important factors for the pricing of A shares.Opening up is also relatively optimistic. Under the baseline situation, if China can continue to promote the opening up process at the current pace, and in the process, it still maintains the same level as Beijing and other places, and there has not been an extremerunning of medical resources, and the superposition will be more The open entry-exit quarantine policy may have a more obvious support for the expectations of investors in the A-share market.
(2) The macro environment in 2023 will undergo a marginal improvement
Since 2022, especially in the second quarter, mainland China has experienced The year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the three quarters that have disclosed statistical reports this year fell to 4.8%, 0.5%, and 3.9% respectively. Although the current economic data for the fourth quarter has not yet been released, the high-frequency growth in October and November According to the data, the economic recovery process is not ideal, and the troikas have all declined to a certain extent. It is unlikely that there will be a growth rate rebound of 4% or even 4.5% in Q4, and there is a high probability that the relatively low growth trend of Q2-Q3 will continue .
There have been many studies on the relationship between the capital market and the macroeconomic performance. One of the perspectives is that if we divide the asset pricing factors according to the profitability represented by EPS and the market sentiment represented by PE, they are divided into There are two factors. According to statistics, during the five years from 2016 to 2021, the quarterly growth rate of a single quarter is higher than the annual growth rate. After the statistical data is disclosed, the rolling price-earnings ratio of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 will be compared with that of the market at that time. The higher emotional response, and the CSI 300 and other indexes also fell above the 60-day (about 60 trading days in a quarter) moving average in terms of pricing performance, which can roughly confirm that the high growth rate expectation has a certain emotional effect on the capital market Positive effect (however, this optimistic expectation usually does not have long-term monetary easing support, but only boosts short-term sentiment). Under the baseline scenario, based on the annual growth target of 5.5%, we will Seeing that the single-quarter GDP growth rate in the second quarter (Q2 growth rate of 0.5% in 2022) is high, there is a certain probability that it will reach more than 6.5%, although this growth rate does not represent an overall improvement in the actual economic operation , But it may support the stock index and sentiment for a certain period of time.
While high growth rate is expected, the macro environment in 2023 will also improve significantly. For market strategy researchers, it is a major link between the macro economy and the capital market The refinement tool comes from Merrill Lynch’s investment clock theory . According to the reviews of many local Chinese research institutions, the investment clock theory is still effective in the A-share market. However, since investment clock has gradually become a compulsory course for market researchers , The asset allocation method of the clock is often "preempted" by major institutions, and this phenomenon is getting more and more serious, which has led to the emergence of the investment clock theory, whether it is in cycle identification or in the guiding sense of asset allocation in large categories. Obvious distortion.
for A stock market According to market analysis, China is still an export-oriented economy and a manufacturing-oriented economy, so we can use the global unified pricing, PPI representing the price of industrial products, and the PMI representing the prosperity of the manufacturing industry to simplify Invest in the clock to make a rough judgment on the macroeconomic cycle . After review and verification, this simplified clock has a higher winning rate for A-share allocation. Judging from the current PMI that continues to shrink and the PPI data that has been moderate, China is already in deep recession. The two major characteristics of a recession cycle are economic downturn and stable prices, so monetary policy tools can be used relatively aggressively. If only preempts one cycle stage, based on the current monetary policy space considerations, it is a relatively rational choice for A-share market investors to allocate stock assets in the recovery cycle in advance during the recession cycle.
(3) China’s real estate cycle may pick up in 2023.
The impact of real estate on China’s economy is self-evident, especially the driving force of upstream and downstream industries is recessive and critical. The first example is passenger cars. Before 2018, the growth rate of passenger car sales has a very obvious synchronous relationship with the growth center of M2. The explanation for this phenomenon is: M2 reflects the prosperity of the real estate market to a certain extent . For Chinese families, house renewal is often accompanied by the purchase of new cars. But since the end of 2016, real estateThe market began to encounter all kinds of strict regulation, which led to a significant decoupling between the two, that is, M2 and passenger car consumption; another example is home appliances, especially white goods , whose renewal cycle is even more in line with Housing purchases are highly correlated. This point of view can be confirmed by the degree of fit between the performance of the home appliance sector in the A-share market and the actual sales of real estate. The home appliance industry is expected to be very sluggish in the context of the downward trend in housing sales. Therefore, on the whole, the sluggishness of real estate brings not only the sluggishness of the macro economy, but also a blow to investment in many implicated sectors.
Under the background of the "housing to live in, not speculation", most real estate companies that have been operating with ultra-high leverage ratio have also completed supply-side clearance in recent years. In this regard, the 2022 Central Economic Work Conference and the subsequent interpretation of the Economic Work Conference by the relevant person in charge of the Central Finance Office also gave clear statements and judgments on the development direction of real estate. Previously, from the "930" new policy on real estate to the "Sixteen Measures" on financial support for real estate, it can be seen that the marginal shift in real estate policy signals is obvious, especially Liu He's speech at the fifth round of dialogue between Chinese, EU, and business leaders and former senior officials. In the written speech, he re-pointed that "real estate is the pillar industry of the national economy", which has a very obvious role in promoting the positive expectation of the real estate market policy. Judging from the high-frequency transaction data of 30 cities tracked by the iFinD database, after the promulgation of the real estate portfolio policy in the early stage, the market transactions in first- and second-tier cities have picked up to a certain extent. If we only look at the current transaction situation and policy setting in first-tier cities, we are cautiously optimistic about the transaction heat of the real estate market in 2023 compared with 2022. The support of real estate for other upstream sectors is worth looking forward to. The housing market demand in first- and second-tier cities is rigid, so they often react ahead of the market. According to the past experience of the whole market, the markets in third-tier cities and below are often one to two quarters behind in response to the urban markets, and cannot even follow the same trend as first- and second-tier cities. Therefore, after the second quarter of 2023, it is time to observe the overall real estate market critical window.
02
Three tail risks in 2023
(1) Uncertainty in the cycle of epidemic "break through"
According to the current trend of public health policies, China's "reopening" is a foregone conclusion. According to the opening-up experience of overseas countries and regions, this transformation process may be very tortuous and volatile. Just judging from Beijing, where the current liberalization process is relatively fast, this process is more tortuous than the market expected. We selected the rolling passenger flow data of Beijing Subway 7 days (combining the passenger flow of that day and the previous 6 days), and we can observe that it does take a certain period of time to adapt to the "New Ten Articles", and it takes a round of full-staff " Infection-recovery" can restore the overall flow of people. Observing the "opening up" situation in other first-tier cities such as Shanghai, we can see that the progress of opening up and resuming travel across the country is not the same. Taking Shanghai as an example, this progress is about 2 weeks behind Beijing. Due to the difficulty of obtaining statistical data, we still cannot know the progress of some relatively conservative or remote cities. Therefore, whether these cities can complete the desensitization of the epidemic in the short term, that is, within one to two months, has become the tail end of economic recovery and market expectation reversal. risk.
If based on the experience of Hong Kong, China, on April 21, 2022, Hong Kong implemented the first wave of liberalization similar to the mainland’s "Twenty Articles"; "Similarly, the result of this policy action can also be observed through the number of tourists visiting Hong Kong. In 2022, Hong Kong, like the mainland, has smoothed out the base effect in terms of economic statistics, which is relatively real. However, judging from GDP growth only, Hong Kong did not see a significant rebound in economic growth after the liberalization in the second quarter of 2022. In particular, private consumption, which reflects the willingness of activities, even showed a more obvious recession.
In fact, the data after the release of prevention and control in Hong Kong Callback The microscopic explanation is the same as the current situation in mainland China. Mobility is severely restricted. The recovery of population mobility still needs a certain period of time to recover. Judging from Hong Kong's experience, it may take at least a quarter of a time window to realize it. Therefore, considering the larger area and population base of mainland China, the "scars" of the epidemic"Effect" may be more lasting, and to a certain extent, it will offset the positive expectations accumulated in China's "reopening" in the early stage. Since the epidemic was released, the A-share index has ushered in a round of valuation increases It does not rule out that after the epidemic is expected to reverse and before the "breakthrough" is successful, the Shanghai Composite Index will move forward around 3,000 points.
(2) The demand for the wrong kill by the Federal Reserve will restrict China's economic recovery
China is in the millennium After joining the WTO in 1999, it completed the transition from an inward-looking economy to an outward-looking economy, and a group of foreign-demand-driven enterprises represented by Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta enterprises were born, and completed the process of basic wealth creation. The creation of wealth again generates domestic demand. Therefore, when tracking economic data, we can observe the changing trend of export data, which is often ahead of import, social zero and other data reflecting domestic demand. Therefore, on the whole, the trend of China’s export data It can basically directly reflect the changes in China's economy. At the same time, according to some studies, changes in exports are highly correlated with changes in the A-share index from a long-term perspective. Shrinking external demand is likely to lead China to a negative spiral of "wage-deflation".
Another On the other hand, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike attitude, which should have been slowed down, has recently sent out a hawkish signal. In December 2022, the FOMC approved a 50 basis point increase in the interest rate , which was in line with expectations. However, Fed Chairman Powell hinted that it plans to increase the interest rate by 2023 Interest rates will be raised in spring to combat high inflation; the target range of the benchmark federal funds interest rate has been raised to 4.25%-4.5%, reaching a 15-year high, which also broke the market's expectations for the Fed to quickly end the process of raising interest rates. Powell The tone of this is that "the United States has seen strong job growth in recent months, the unemployment rate has remained low, but the inflation rate has remained high", "in order to support maximum employment and the long-term inflation target of 2%, we will continue to increase the federal The target range of the funds rate will be appropriate", which also made investors who were relatively optimistic about the 2023 Fed monetary policy shift lower their expectations again. Considering the stickiness of inflation, the fall of inflation has a certain lag, so we judge the 2023 Fed policy The core goal is still to control inflation, and it may also kill demand to a certain extent. In 2023, the central bankers who raise interest rates will be criticized much more severely than in 2022. At the same time, considering the The new production capacity formed by strong external demand between 2020 and 2022 will seriously affect and restrain the demand and vitality of China's industrial production in 2023.
(3) The possibility of the seriousness of the Bank of Japan's adjustment of the yield curve of the national debt to control the YCC range Underestimated
Since the beginning of 2022, the Federal Reserve has implemented a rather extreme monetary policy shift to suppress rising domestic inflation. As the world's largest economy, the United States has chosen such a radical policy contraction path, Central banks around the worldin order to exchange rate, price stability and other factors can hardly deviate from the policy orientation of the Fed, they have started to raise interest rates. Among them, the Bank of Japan has maintained a policy orientation that deviates from the Fed in the early stage, and the continuous expansion of interest rate differentials has also led to the depreciation of the yen exchange rate since the beginning of 2022, and the USD/JPY once broke through the 150 mark. The Bank of Japan did not adopt the same orientation as the Fed in the early stage, mainly because of the divergence between Japan and the United States in terms of economic recovery after the epidemic. However, judging from the current situation, on the one hand, as Japan, which has been in a state of "deflation" for a long time, its domestic CPI in November has climbed to 3.7% year-on-year; on the other hand, more than 50% of the buyers in the Japanese bond market come from the central bank, while The Bank of Japan is also the largest holder of government bonds, which eventually led to a decline in the trading volume of Japanese government bonds and the drying up of liquidity. The Bank of Japan had to make changes.
Therefore, the Bank of Japan also announced in the interest rate resolution announced on December 20, 2022 that it will allow the yield of Japan's 10-year government bonds to rise to around 0.5%, which is higher than the upper limit of the previous fluctuation range of 0.25%. But this upward yield curve control (YCC) policy has not attracted corresponding attention. You know, if the global financial market is regarded as a pool of water, then Japan is an extremely important part of this pool of water. Japanese investors will suddenly have an incentive to repatriate large amounts of money, which means massive outflows from other countries --Especially in the (global anchor of assets)US Treasuries market, which already has liquidity problems, outflows will tighten global financial conditions. 's long-term sluggish economic growth combined with the previous long-term quantitative easing policy has made yen loans the best choice for carry trades. Therefore, the negative impact of the Bank of Japan's shift on the global asset market may be greater than investors expected The situation is even more serious. According to Bank for International Settlementsdata, as of June 2021, the cross-border investment and loans of the Japanese banking industry reached 3.5 trillion US dollars, exceeding the 3.2 trillion US dollars of the US counterparts, and also exceeding the 3.4 trillion of the British banks counterparts Dollar. Therefore, we need to be aware that the adjustment of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy will have a great impact on the "water" of the global financial market, and may even form a "black hole effect" of liquidity.
03
Investment strategy under the baseline scenario and views on the overall economic situation next year
(1) In terms of strategy, we should pay attention to the inflection point of social consumer goods retail data
2023 is an important window for the switch between domestic and foreign demand. In terms of external demand, we have analyzed in the previous article that after the Federal Reserve wrongly kills external demand, China is likely to lead to excess industrial production capacity (reflected in the previous manufacturing investment), so it is difficult for industry and external demand to achieve positive economic growth in 2023 support. During the three years of the epidemic, the saving behavior of the household sector has undergone two stages of "passive consumption of savings-active increase of savings". In the later stage of the epidemic, under the expectation of rising unemployment rate, residents partly increased their savings to avoid risks. This part of the newly formed excess savings is the main positive market expectation factor for the release of domestic demand. can show that the next year is an important window for switching between internal and external needs. If domestic demand is not well released, I am afraid we will be faced with "excessive expectations" and "weak reality".
Considering that the biggest uncertainty in 2023 is the process of "passing through" the epidemic in mainland China, we judge that the A-share index may fluctuate at the current point during the "passing through" process, until the overall mobility of people in various places returns to normal There may be an inflection point in the market. In view of the fact that the switch between domestic and foreign demand is the main line of economic operation in 2023, we judge the market inflection point and believe that we should focus on the inflection point of consumption data, which can reflect the release process of actual domestic demand. The rebound of ’s zero data can indirectly indicate that residents’ mobility has basically returned to normal, and excess savings have also been released to a certain extent.
We recommend focusing on three main lines of thought for plate allocation. The first is to focus on the concept of benefiting from the release of excess savings brought about by China's "reopening". Under the baseline expectation, if China’s economy can maintain a growth rate of more than 5% in 2023, and the process of breaking through the epidemic is smooth, and the government’s work will return to economic construction, we judge that after the turning point of the epidemic, it will benefit from the liberalization of policies and it is expected to be completed The travel chain segment (scenic spots, hotels, duty-free, and catering) repaired by ROE deserves attention. The second is to pay attention to the concept of fiscal rigidity and comprehensive security under the dual pressure of fiscal and geopolitics. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Finance, the national general public budget revenue from January to November this year fell by 3% on a natural basis, which has brought constraints to the fiscal expenditure in 2023. According to the word frequency statistics of the full text of the "big" report, in addition to common words such as "development" and "country", the keyword with the highest word frequency is "safety", which has appeared 91 times in total, even higher than the 60 times of "economy". Taking into account the current dual factors of financial issues and security issues, we believe that geopolitical security related sectors (military industry) and domestic self-controllable related sectors (domestic components, digital infrastructure) deserve attention. Third, considering that the previous period has been almost overdrawn and the valuation logic has changed significantly, it is recommended to cautiously allocate and avoid risks in the technology growth sectors (new energy vehicles, semiconductors) that have been overinflated in the early stage.
(2) A few supplements and opinions on the current economic situation
2022 is a very extraordinary year. How to manage "extreme uncertainty" is the most important issue in 2023. I think there are three consensuses to reshape.
One is to reshape the consensus of economic growth. With the optimization and upgrading of epidemic prevention and control policies, the trend of economic operation is clear, but the road is also tortuousof. In the past three years, the epidemic and the international and domestic situation have made us understand a truth: economic data is the general trend at the macro level, but pessimistic at the micro level. Economic growth is crucial, not optional. Nothing is possible without the guarantee of speed and development. We have to seriously discuss that long-term system reform is a must if we want to regain economic growth, but before that, should we consider taking the path of MMT? Unconventional measures to start the economy and buy time for reforms are issues that require serious consideration.
The second is the consensus on reshaping the social order. In the past three years of , we have experienced too many unconventional means of social management and economic management, and have also created a lot of new vocabulary, new methods, new expressions, and new speech techniques. These unconventional emergency social management methods, medical management methods, and industry management methods, along with the optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies, should and must gradually withdraw from the stage of history. In particular, it is necessary to prevent the further satisfaction of the emergency system from reaching the economic field and undermining the already fragile confidence. Reshaping the normal social order is crucial to each of us, and we must cherish and maintain this normal social order.
The third is to reshape the consensus of international rules. The world is undergoing major changes unseen in a century. In which direction the situation will turn we have no way of knowing. The structural background of the world is not the ideal in the minds of liberals, it is full of realism's power, narrowness and last resort. Economic growth has always occurred within the context of world power structures, not the other way around. We must be fully aware of this, even though we are sorry and saddened by the changes in the world in recent years. But how we see determines what we do and who we are. In the five years since the trade war started in 2018, people have gradually adapted to and faced up to the changes in new international rules. In the 1970s, many countries seized the opportunity to change their national destiny. China was also a beneficiary of the great changes in international rules in the 1970s. Will we still be beneficiaries this time? The answer depends not only on changes in the United States, on changes in Europe, but also on how we respond to this change. Perhaps saying goodbye to the sense of sadness and victim mentality, looking at the world at a level, being relaxed, accepting various values and adjusting one's cognition is the proper attitude to deal with the current changes in the global landscape.
(the author Guan Qingyou is the dean of the Financial Research Institute)
