What is the most important core of the Chinese economy in 2023? The answer is growth. Although
will abandon the GDP theory for a while, the forecast of GDP growth rate has never been bypassed for so many years.
Let’s take a look at the GDP forecast for 2023 today for your reference.
Chinese and foreign forecast inventory
At the end of each year, major Chinese and foreign institutions, including some experts, will predict the GDP growth rate for the coming year, and this year is no exception.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that in 2023China's GDP will grow by 4.4%. The predictions of the organization have never been accurate. It feels like a group of bankers are far away overseas and don’t understand China at all. They don’t understand China’s potential, let alone how more than 600 million Chinese farmers create wealth.
Goldman Sachs predicts 5.2%; Morgan Stanley predicts 5%; this is usually what their huge branches in China do, and they are generally optimistic. UBS forecasts 4.9%; Japan's Nomura Securities forecasts 4.8%.
Shanghai University of Finance and Economics predicts 5.4%; Chinese Academy of Sciences predicts 5.1%, and its predictions are often the most accurate. Economists and experts in China generally predict 5%-6%, so I won’t list them all.
Putting these predictions together, what do you find?
The tangle behind GDP forecasts
These forecasts are generally around 5%, which is not a bad result.
The epidemic has been three years, and the Chinese economy has also been cured for three years. In-depth adjustments and the epidemic are superimposed. After three difficult years, no one is easily too optimistic.
Currently, China’s economic transformation and deep adjustment are far from over, and we cannot put down our burdens and pack lightly.
There is another important background. Most of these forecasts believe that the epidemic will pass in March and April, and normal work and life will resume. For a country as large and complex as China, this is obviously too optimistic.
This shows that people hope that things will get better in 2023, but they dare not be too optimistic and are very entangled.
So, let's highlight a few not-so-optimistic factors.
Several important factors that are not optimistic
At present, global experts basically have a consensus that global economy will fall into a deep recession from 2023, which may last for 3-5 years.
The big battle between Russia and Ukraine is over, but the conflict will last at least 1-2 years, just like the Korean War. In 2023, the impact of this conflict on the world will continue.
In recent years, the United States, Europe and their allies have been keen to decouple from China and reduce their dependence on China. Because they are currently in deep crisis, this trend may slow down slightly in 2023, but it will not end immediately.
The epidemic in China is expected to resume normal life and work at least until July 2023. Why do you say that? You can refer to my previous article " In fact, all predictions are based on evidence, and they are also brainstorming, so don't worry about making bricks, think about it yourself. In addition to the above, I think there are two major influencing factors that cannot be ignored: The first is that the epidemic cannot fully fight the economy until July, so the state of full blood is only half a year. The second is that consumption and confidence will not rise in the short term, and it may take half a year or even longer. People dare not take money out of the bank and spend it easily. Of course, we cannot ignore China's potential and the drive of the Chinese people. Comprehensive full text, I think China's GDP growth in 2023 will be about 3.5% in the first half of the year, about 5% in the second half of the year, and 4%-5% for the whole year. I'm very optimistic, we have to look forward and don't have to use up all our energy next year. I will predict China's 2023
