After the domestic epidemic control was relaxed, the first wave of infection peaks soon ushered in. Wu Zunyou, chief expert of epidemiology at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, pointed out when talking about the next trend of the epidemic situation that in this winter , China is likely to usher in "one peak and three waves".
"One peak" means that within three months after the liberalization, China will usher in the peak of the winter new crown epidemic, and in the three months of this peak, there will be three waves of epidemics, of which the first wave of epidemics It is what we are experiencing. The second wave will start in late January. With the coming of the Spring Festival return home, the number of infections will rise. The third wave will be from late February to mid-March, when returning to work and returning to work The increase in the number of people will bring a third wave of the epidemic.
Facing the very likely occurrence of "one peak and three waves", it also poses a challenge to my country's medical system. Professor Deputy President of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine Chen Jingyu also expressed his concerns. Professor Chen Jingyu deeply felt the pressure on the existing medical system, so his suggestions are also very pragmatic.
Professor Chen Jingyu proposed that the statistics of hospitalized patients, especially critically ill patients, should be strengthened and disclosed to the outside world in a timely manner. Counting the data of critically ill patients, this data is of real significance to the fight against the new crown.
Chen Jingyu focused on data such as the rate of severe cases, the use of ventilators, the use of ECMO, the death of patients, and deaths caused by complications, because the current spread of the epidemic still has priorities, and the infection rate in first-tier cities such as Beijing is relatively high. , The data that can be provided is relatively comprehensive, and these data can be given to other cities as a reference, helping other hospitals to prepare early.
Deputy Chief Physician of Department of Infectious Diseases, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Guo Wei, also mentioned the importance of relevant data. After understanding the severe data in the outbreak areas, hospitals in other cities can predict the peak of severe cases and death in advance. And prepare critical care resources in advance, instead of waiting until the patient enters ICU, and then see how many ICU beds are needed, it will definitely be too late.
In addition, the allocation of critically ill resources should be planned early. In Japan, the number of new infections in a single day has long exceeded 100,000, but the death rate of new crown infections in Japan over the age of 60 is 0.18%, which is far below the average level. An important reason behind this is that Japan allocated medical resources in advance, giving priority to treatment for elderly patients, pregnant women and patients with complications, effectively reducing the mortality rate.
With the arrival of the peak of returning home during the Spring Festival, the distribution of critically ill patients with the new crown will inevitably become more scattered. Instead of allocating medical resources at that time, we should make a plan in advance and use limited medical resources where they are most needed to prevent severe illness. It is a tragedy that patients cannot receive timely treatment.
